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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fair Oaks Income Limited | LSE:FAIR | London | Ordinary Share | GG00BNNLWT35 | 2021 SHS NPV |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.0025 | -0.46% | 0.5375 | 0.53 | 0.545 | 0.5375 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 130,918 | 08:00:12 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty | 32.13M | 30.99M | 0.0727 | 7.43 | 230.14M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
17/5/2024 12:43 | Q1 dividend declared, 2c payable 28th June. | bluemango | |
02/5/2024 13:32 | All quiet here Income and share appreciation balancing out my losses elsewhere Notably GSF !! | panshanger1 | |
17/4/2024 08:23 | Liberum Structured CreditFair Oaks Income Good time to be allocating to CLO equityAnalyst: Shonil ChandeMkt Cap £183m | Share price $0.56 | Prem/(disc) -0.9% | Div yield 14.3%EventFair Oaks Income's NAV per share increased by 0.7% (+3.8% NAV TR YTD) in the monthly period to 31 March 2024, to $0.565. We summarise some of the main monthly market indicators below:US loan default rate: Decreased from 1.41% to 1.14% m-o-m.European loan default rate: Decreased from 1.86% to 1.65% m-o-m.Distress ratio (loans trading below 80c, a potential indicator of the direction of future defaults): Declined in the US from 5.08% to 4.95% and in Europe from 2.80% to 2.78%.Liberum viewAnother good update underlining why FAIR's CLO equity-focused strategy is an attractive place to allocate to given the lowering default rates in the broader leveraged loan markets, high distributions, relatively benign macro and the fact that CLO equity valuations have the potential to follow the normalisation path seen in CLO mezzanine debt.?This is a performing CLO equity portfolio that is attractively valued, with potential for higher valuations. We note the manager's comment (factsheet) that "the weighted average price for US CLO equity in the Master Fund's portfolio has decreased from 39.6c to 36.2c in the last 12 months while the weighted average loan bid price has risen from 93.7c to 96.6c in the same period and ii) cash-flow multiples: c. 3.5x based on March's valuations and annualised quarterly cash-flows."The chart below is a sensitivity based on the CLO portfolio, as at 31 December 2023. It shows the significant slack embedded into the valuation of the US CLO equity portfolio. We also note that the high yields in CLO equity are driven by the excess distributions to the equity holder once all liabilities are paid to debt tranches. The underlying loans that fund the CLO equity and CLO liabilities are senior secured bank loans that side above high yield debt and preferred stock and underlying loan spreads are typically in the 2.5%-4% range. We are BUYers with a target price of $0.66. | davebowler | |
22/2/2024 16:20 | Dividend declared, payable 2nd April. | bluemango | |
21/2/2024 09:45 | Liberum view This was another positive update and we draw attention to a few points: 1) CLO equity is an attractive place to be when the macro backdrop is relatively benign, particularly against the prior expectations that mark-to-market valuations are sensitive to; 2) the stress testing detail provided by the manager across various scenarios reads positively; 3) it is the difference between expectations and actual rates default rates that matters more than the directional trend; and 4) CLO equity valuations have the potential to follow the normalisation path seen in CLO mezzanine debt and as CLO liabilities tighten, there is a greater chance of using resets to enhance the value of the control CLO equity portfolio. The last point is significant. The chart below is a sensitivity based on the CLO portfolio, as at 31 December 2023. It shows the significant slack embedded into the valuation of the US CLO equity portfolio. Better loan market read-across should bode well. Resets would be highly significant. Should this option return, this can have a very significant impact on individual CLO equity deals. We are BUYers with a target price of $0.66. | davebowler | |
06/2/2024 18:59 | No liquidity today here | panshanger1 | |
22/1/2024 10:30 | Liberum on Fair Oaks Income Investment case remains compelling despite discount closing Analyst: Shonil Chande Mkt Cap £177m | Share price $0.56 | Prem/(disc) -1.6% | Div yield 14.4% Event Fair Oaks Income’s NAV per share of $0.564, as at 31 December 2023, represented a 0.14% monthly increase and a 12.9% NAV total return in the calendar year. Default levels firmly lower than forecast a year ago The European loan default rate increased from 1.42% to 1.62%, and the US loan default rate increased from 1.48% to 1.53% in December. These levels are significantly below market forecasts at the end of 2022. The forward-looking distress ratio decreased from 4.79% to 4.32% in Europe and from 7.30% to 6.36% in the US. Liberum view FAIR has performed very well over the past year, with the underlying performance of the CLO equity and debt portfolios very well supported by corporate measures, particularly the share repurchase programme. In the context of the near outright closure of FAIR’s discount, it may be tempting to view FAIR as relatively less attractive. We make a few key points to counter this. Firstly, At NAV (ie no discount), FAIR’s dividend yield is c.4 percentage points higher than the second highest-yielding alternative fund (market caps above £150m). Secondly, with respect to increases in default rates and the impact this can have on CLO equity valuation, as opposed to distributions given that a far more punitive environment (overacollaterlisati The two charts below show 1) the downward trend in the core USD CLO equity valuations in particular, mitigating risk, and 2) the potential positive impact on NAV from upward moves in valuation. If the market has modelled overly pessimistic assumptions for USD CLO equity, the prices of some of the US CLO equity tranches could rally significantly. We also note the manager’s comment in the factsheet: “Assuming the US default scenarios forecast by S&P Global Ratings, we estimate that the gross IRR for the Master Fund would be 33%, 26% and 15% in an optimistic, base and pessimistic scenario, respectively.” Alignment and repurchases FAIR has overseen a highly effective share repurchase programme since October 2022, with tangible impact across several metrics. A focus on CLO equity, which has historically delivered a double-digit cash yield, and CLO debt, meant that even after reducing its annual dividend, in 2022, from 9.5c to 8c to fund the repurchases, the dividend yield at NAV remained above 13%. Other initiatives include the fixed-life realisation share class and re-investing 25% of management fees whenever the shares trade at a discount. We are BUYers with a target price of $0.66. | euameus | |
03/1/2024 11:12 | You need to phone HL and answer some questions, confirming you acknowledge this is a "complex investment'. You don't have to understand any complexities, just need to acknowledge it's not a standard investment type. Then deal by phone if still happy. Don't know about usual spread. | bluemango | |
03/1/2024 11:09 | I can not trade electronically directly on HL. I wanted to take a first position here. Do you know if that is because of low liquidity? And what is normally the spread you pay to buy into FAIR? | gonsan | |
02/1/2024 20:21 | Took some here today too for an initial position GLA | panshanger1 | |
02/1/2024 17:00 | And also VTA/VTAS. FAIR are priced in USD, and at the current exchange rate 56c = 44.37p. VTA is priced in Euros but you might as well buy the same animal VTAS in pence. TORO is also priced in Euros. They are pretty similar but FAIR stick mainly to USA debt, TORO mostly European and VTAS split roughly 50/50. Otherwise the principal difference is the discount to NAV. TORO is the highest, FAIR lowest virtually evens and VTAS somewhere in the middle. | grahamg8 | |
02/1/2024 13:35 | Seems one can sell more than one can buy electronically I thought the price was around 0.443 | clive7878 | |
02/1/2024 09:31 | LG, FYI TORO is a similar animal. | langland | |
02/1/2024 09:25 | Joined you all this morning with a first purchase. Switched out of AA4 - too many question marks. Will look to add to build up to quota. I like income! | lord gnome | |
30/12/2023 20:25 | PS1, Fair announce the currency conversion rate a short while prior to divi payment and pay the divi in GBP. | tag57 | |
30/12/2023 16:06 | Had a large position in TFIF for many years- in fact it's been one of my steadiest performers !!Thinking of having a nibble can here anyone explain how the dividend is paid through the broker if it's declared in us currency ?Thanks | panshanger1 | |
28/12/2023 15:11 | Oak Bloke Commentary on FAIR... | cwa1 | |
27/12/2023 17:04 | SP at its highest for nearly 2 years. We are almost at the latest NAV of 56.3c. In a falling interest rate environment the huge yield could spell a rerating. If the dividend stayed the same and the risk appetite accepted 12% we would have a share price of 66c, or rise of 21%. High income and capital gain, I think I am having a wet dream. | grahamg8 | |
10/11/2023 07:58 | Thanks Blue. O&G is a bit of a rollercoaster these days. Holding on, just :-) | tag57 | |
10/11/2023 07:21 | #322 I'm worried about DEC short term, but we'll know soon whether they'll maintain the dividend. I can't see any reason not to, but will be reassuring to see it. I'm not aware of any FAIR presentations, no. | bluemango | |
09/11/2023 17:03 | Hi Tag. I'm mostly bunkering down and not switching much around at present. Probably not your thing because it's not currently income earning, but I'm expecting good things from Casp in coming weeks. It's an oil producer in Kazakhstan with known oil under the ground, they just need to overcome the technical obstacles to get it out of the ground. Sentiment is rock bottom along with the price but would be transformative if they can get a deep well to flow. Sticking with FAIR, VTAS, DEC, SBLK and a few other but smaller holdings, all for income. Apologies all for off topic. | bluemango | |
09/11/2023 16:51 | I should have bought more at sub50c per share back in July. If it drops down to anywhere near 50c again I will certainly take another tranche. Have you been looking at anything interesting lately Blue? I have been pushing some money into Infra with a mix of BBGI and GCA for a bit of diversity. | tag57 |
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