Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[pdt] 28/6/2017 15:27

Another article about the Cancer fighting properties of Sulforaphane this time from results of work at a Korean University;

[timbo003] 26/6/2017 10:33

There's a new Evgen presentation/Podcast on Directors talk, it's well worth a listen, quite a few new insights I thought:

[ga_dti] 26/6/2017 07:38

Evgen Pharma Plc (LON:EVG) CEO Dr Stephen Franklin talks through the Preliminary Results Presentation for the year ended 31 March 2017.

[pdt] 21/6/2017 16:16

Just had a look at the new Hardman Report and it is a good read.

I like the new timeline diagram with potentially trials in MS and Autism starting early in 2018. I suspect the MS will be progressed with a pharma partner which is mentioned as an option. £10m cost, 120 patients and two year study period is mentioned. I doubt they will have too much trouble finding a partner, the market size for MS by 2024 I see estimated at $20 billion in one online report.

Autism study is also pencilled in as a potential start in early 2018 with 124 patients.

So a good chance of four Phase II studies in progression next year :)

[timbo003] 21/6/2017 09:44

The new Hardman Report (out this morning) makes a good read.



It sounds like they still have cash for the next 12 months which should get them to readouts on the two ongoing clinicals, so let's hope at least one of those still looks promising at that time.

Good early progress on some of the other putative indications (including Autism and MS) and there are now 40 candidates from the ongoing Spanish sulforophane analogue screening program, so we could hear some thing on that at any time.

[pdt] 15/6/2017 14:56

Articles on the net today based on research by Lund Uni of Sweden on Sulforaphane and Type 2 Diabetes.



Another blockbuster use for SFX-01 ??

[timbo003] 14/6/2017 09:26

>>>>PDT
Good spot on the Autism study, although I doubt if it will be totally cost free, for example the CT supplies are likely to come from Evgen, but good news nether the less.

[pdt] 13/6/2017 15:17

I liked this from today's release;

"Autism: a third-party, small (40 patient), randomised placebo controlled trial has shown that sulforaphane (delivered as a frozen botanical extract) significantly improved behavioural measures and there are now five clinical trials (with over 300 patients in aggregate) investigating the use of sulforaphane in autism. None of these is using a viable pharmaceutical product. Evgen Pharma has been approached by a UK consortium led by Dr Michael Absoud (St Thomas' Hospital) that wishes to trial SFX-01 for the treatment of autism in children using a randomised double blind Phase II trial. This is a relatively near-term opportunity to initiate an Investigator Initiated Study using non-dilutive grant funding."

I assume the market is concerned about funding. It does seem that they will run out of cash before the two trials are completed. However, the STEM trial will have an interim read out, hopefully before that happened and if positive it will be a lot easier to raise the cash needed.

Other market moving news could be the Phase II trial in Autism which sounds like it could start soon (next six months?) Doing a quick search for the market size of medications for ADHD suggested around $15 billion per annum worldwide. I was surprised it was that big, so an effective treatment without side effects I assume could do well?

I may add more on the dips if there are any.

[pdt] 02/6/2017 11:56

Timbo - sorry, my mistake. I was reading the Hardman report which just mentions ER positive but the clintrials page you linked to is very clear and it is HER2 negative as well.

Yes a very positive report yesterday. Good news on safety, only bad news is the slight reporting delay. I saw a comment on another board that a poster was worried about a placing due to the need for more funds which may be an issue due to the delay.

The market size for the drug to support hormone treatment in breast cancer is huge, I think the Hardman report estimated $4 billion. If the interim data analysis they are promising mirrors the compassionate use outcome reported this could fly very quickly. They said first half 2018. A good outcome would make a placing quite easy.

My only concern is why is this share on a market cap of £14m??? What am I missing?

[timbo003] 01/6/2017 22:13

>>>PDT

Agreed, positive news, but it's a pity about the slight delay in the anticipated date for the final readout from the trial

On the other point: Do you mean the the trial is using ER positive patients rather than HER2 positive patients?

ER = estrogen receptor

HER2 = human epidermal growth factor receptor 2


See first three inclusion criteria from the Clintrials.gov outline protocol



Inclusion Criteria:

1) Male or female patients 18 years or older (the patient must be the legal age limit to give informed consent within the jurisdiction the study is taking place in);

2) Patients with histologically confirmed estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer. ER is considered positive if a percentage score of ≥10% of tumour cells staining positive for ER;

3) Histological confirmation of HER2 negative breast cancer on primary tumour at diagnosis or on biopsy of a metastasis. HER2 negative is defined by the ASCO/CAP guidelines;




.

[pdt] 01/6/2017 10:32

Positive news. Being able to extend the useful life of hormone treatment is significant. Stage 4 metastatic breast cancer median survival time is 18 months to 2 years. Keeping the cancer in check for an additional 5 or more months must be very welcome if eventually confirmed.

Timbo - I think you will find the trial is using HER positive people

[timbo003] 01/6/2017 10:13

Note:

In this STEM study, all patients were diagnosed as "HER2 negative breast cancer on primary tumour at diagnosis or on biopsy of a metastasis"

[timbo003] 01/6/2017 10:02

Here's some Kaplan Meier plots which give a better picture of survival rates

Maybe my estimate of 50% in the last post was a bit high











.

[timbo003] 01/6/2017 08:09

Found it

Five year survival rates are reported to be 22%

That's from historical data and survival times are probably improving all the time, but it puts the STEM update into perspective.


Q: So what would be the probability of the first patient on the active treatment showing no progression after 24 weeks?

A: 50% ????? ( my guestimate)

[timbo003] 01/6/2017 07:58

An interesting update this morning:

Metastatic breast cancer study (STEM):
Final readout put back a bit due to problems with getting more study centres on board, but one patient now completed with no disease progression, so is now continuing treatment on compassionate grounds (Note to self: need to look up stats for % chance of progression for these patients on standard of care)

Subarachnoid Haemorrhage study (SAS);
Now over one third of the way complete as far as dosing is concerned, looks like they might have had unequal distribution of severity of the condition between the two groups (active vs control) so they need to adjust the protocol to ensure an equal balance. I don't think we can read anything into that in terms of is the drug working (or not).

No significant safety issues though, so that's good

[wins73] 19/4/2017 02:03

Any idea why this price fallen?

[peterm10] 15/2/2017 22:43

Excellent. Wonder what will happen when we get closer to full approvals

[timbo003] 15/2/2017 08:14

This week's (unexpected) performance has to be worth an animated gif!

I'm not sure what the catalyst is for this recent rise, a patent grant (even in the US) doesn't normally have an effect of this magnitude on the share price.

[pdt] 27/1/2017 09:49

Bought my first shares here today. The story looks interesting although highly risky at this stage. Thanks Timbo for a very useful header, it helped researching this one. I like the fact that they have the orphan status and that they are funded for both phase IIs. The MS looks very interesting but they have no funds to progress this. They also seem to have a good strategy with IP/patents/licencing in place. Worth a small punt and see how it goes. From memory I think Northland have a 97p target which is also encouraging!

[timbo003] 23/1/2017 14:19

Just spotted this interview (from last week), worth a listen:

[timbo003] 17/1/2017 08:32

Link to the Clintrials.gov summary page for the metastatic breast cancer study (see this morning's announcement):

[timbo003] 06/12/2016 21:19

>>>patvera

Likewise, I have quite a bit more invested here too.

Evgen have raised a total of just £13m from investors since incorporation and they have enough cash to get them to H1 2018 when they get the initial readout from both the Phase II clinical trials.

[patviera] 06/12/2016 19:33

I prefer Evg to ValFully fundedStephen to me is trustworthy and very able

[timbo003] 06/12/2016 08:07

New interview with Stephen Franklin (CEO) from yesterday