European Real E Share Discussion Threads

[ifthecapfits] 01/10/2013 10:04

Suggest you check the website - link above. Nothing in Italy.

[stupidboypike] 01/10/2013 09:59

Sharpshare, Do you have a breakdown of where the other assets are located? Is there much in Italy?

Best regards SBP

[sharpshare] 01/10/2013 09:16

Shares in issue: 33,160,000
2% of EUR 57,000,000 is EUR 1,140,000
GBPEUR 1.195
GBP NAV increase GBP 953,000
NAV per share increase 2.88p

[sharpshare] 01/10/2013 09:11

Game changing news at ERET this morning.
Biggest asset in Germany sold for EUR57m which is about a 2% premium to latest valuation.
This brings NAV per share up about 3p to around 197p.
Net Loan To Value now around 48% (including FX and swap derivative liabilities which all roll off within 9 months)
Share price 88p
Discount to NAV of 55%
If the discount moves to around 33% over the next few months which is very feasible then the share price could be around 132p.

[profitaker] 01/10/2013 09:08

They haven't got long (January I think). But if they manage to refinance they could well achieve the full NAV, which is £1.93 in the latest accounts.

[rearsky] 01/10/2013 08:33

Just sold their biggest German Property:Duren at 2% premium to June NAV for E57m. Brings LTV around 45%, boost Lloyds refinancing talks. Extremely bullish news.

[kenny] 10/9/2013 23:25

,,,you will also note from the article posted on the IERP board, that Lloyds has likely put ERET's debt up for sale - within the total of €1.5bn of European property debt it is selling.

[kenny] 10/9/2013 18:22

Sharpshare - if you are interested in European property on the basis it is stabilising and may be about to recover, you may care to look at IERP - a preference share issued by IERE.

I have a holding in IERP and have posted a detailed analysis at post 61 on the IERP board. An interesting discussion follows post 61 and there were some further developments I posted about earlier this week. Would be interested in your views as I see your name on a number of European property fund bulletin boards and IERP seems to offer a good return to redemption - obviously on the IERP board rather than this one.

[sharpshare] 10/9/2013 17:11

Should get another uptick when the next building sale is announced.

[al101uk] 09/9/2013 15:29

In answer to the questions regarding the large discount to NAV:

The Company is in regular dialogue with LBG and other lending banks concerning the progress of our sales programme and potential options for refinancing beyond the maturity date of the facility in January 2014. Given such challenging markets, sales of all properties are unlikely to be completed by the end of 2013. Without adequate financing in place beyond January 2014 the valuation of the Group's property portfolio would be at risk of a material reduction from the level reported as at 30 June 2013. Providing stability to the balance sheet of the Company is a priority for the Investment Manager and the Board.

I assume that no financing would mean distressed sales... might still be some value even then. Currently in research mode.. no position as yet.

[colonel a] 29/8/2013 13:46

Sharpshare,
I take it you got some at the old price immediately after the, somewhat strangely timed, announcement.
Looks like Schroders will get things sorted. Confidence that they will is much more important than the timescale IMO.
Be interesting to see what kind of press this gets.

[sharpshare] 29/8/2013 10:32

Interim results out today.

NAV is up 1p to 194p per share.

Current share price 80p
So discount to NAV is a massive 59%

Net LTV down to 58.4%

Compared to other listed European property companies it looks very undervalued.

[asmodeus] 10/7/2013 08:22

I'm not leaving - just not getting further in ! PS :- anybody not "bovvered" about the future of the Euro should grit their teeth and buy a copy of today's Telegraph and read Evans-Prichard's article on page B2 (business section).

[nigelwestm] 10/7/2013 07:53

Good for you, asmodeus. Glad we could help. Now kindly close the door quietly on your way out...

[asmodeus] 09/7/2013 16:40

Thanks for answering my question, in effect, investor_tp vis: "I'm not sure if this is a stock one should own if one is truly worried about such a scenario." I an truly concerned, at least, about the future of the Euro, so will not be adding.

[sharpshare] 09/7/2013 16:31

"RNS Number : 4538I
European Real Estate Inv Tst Ltd
03 July 2013
...
The value of the property portfolio as at 30 June 2013 was €224.4 million. This compares, on a like-for-like basis (following the sale of the property at St Etienne on 28 June 2013), to a 31 December 2012 value of €227.7 million, a decrease of 1.4%.

The valuations are provided by the independent valuer (CBRE) in accordance with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Appraisal and Valuation Standards and show the "Market Value" assuming an asset sale of each property and allow for acquisition costs incurred by purchasers. "


So if Schroders manages to sell the properties at amounts close to the very recent independent valuation of 30 June 2013 then shareholders might get back around 193p. Current share price is 89p. Why is the gap so big?

[sharpshare] 09/7/2013 13:36

Share price now around 89p
Last NAV of 193p per share
Share price discount to NAV around 54%

Shares in issue 33.16m
Mkt cap about £29.5m
Net equity based on 193p net assets of about £64million
Discount £34.5million

net LTV around 61%
Rental Income of £29.3m last year
Average property assets over last year of around £265m, implies gross yield of about 11%

A well regarded larger peer in the sector is Hansteen, HSTN
share price about 86.2p
last NAV 83p per diluted share
Trading at a share price premium of about 4%
net LTV around 44%

If ERET can attract some of the HSTN sentiment then a higher share price might be possible.

[rearsky] 09/7/2013 12:56

could we all abstain from philosophical questions and pub common sense like comments and stick to facts invt thesis and thoughts? Eret value shot up 60% in no time so lets focus on what comes next. thanks in advance

[investor_tp] 09/7/2013 12:20

I think trying to predict what would happen in such a scenario is a mug's game really. The Eurozone makes up almost a quarter of global GDP. If it was to "collapse" (whatever that means exactly), you suddenly have commercial and financial contracts worth multiple times of global GDP in limbo. It would be "messy", to say the least. The City would be toast. Britain would be toast. At least in the short term it wouldn't make much of a difference at all whether it's got its own currency or not, Britain's economy is just too entangled with the continent's, as one would expect given its proximity. This is all way beyond normal economics anyway - a discipline that struggles to make sense of much smaller things. I'm not sure if this is a stock one should own if one is truly worried about such a scenario.

[nigelwestm] 08/7/2013 23:28

Well, why not flip that around and ask what would happen to the price of your UK home if the pound collapsed. If the pound went to, say. $0.149 from the current $1.49 I expect that my £450,000 home would be worth £4.5 million.

Of course, you have to factor in that if the euro collapsed then trade within the eurozone might be affected adversely, which would mean there would be less demand for retail and business properties...

[asmodeus] 08/7/2013 11:49

Please would someone who understands currencies advise us what would happen to European property values if/when the Euro collapses? I asked this question on another thread, and the response was that (at least) German properties would actually benefit.

[sharpshare] 08/7/2013 11:29

Looks like Schroders is doing a good job.
They did a great job at SREI.
This latest sale at a premium to book has substantially derisked the entire company. One more half decent sale could put the LTV into the fifties.
If or when that happens a discount to NAV of around 30% may be more appropriate which might translate into a share price of around 135p?
Meanwhile the cash rents continue flowing in.
Finance costs set to drop to more normal levels as risk to the bank is substantially reduced.

[badtime] 08/7/2013 10:17

looked at these last week at 63..i passed on a buy....what a clanger

[asmodeus] 08/7/2013 10:05

Me likewise - even after today's 10% rise!

[bondholder] 05/7/2013 13:27

Only needs to double from 74p and i'll be in profit........