European Assets Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 10/1/2023 15:58

The World Bank has just revised 2023 Euro area GDP down from +1.9% to 0%.

LOL. Well I suppose the two forecasts are at least closer together now!

[aleman] 10/1/2023 13:17

GSachs raises its 2023 GDP forecast for the Euro area from -0.1% to +0.6%.

[jonathb] 06/1/2023 08:53

OK y well @90 share price 6.44 says my slide-rule ;^/

[brucie5] 05/1/2023 08:44

I'm making that about 6.3%?

[cwa1] 05/1/2023 07:20

Disappointing obviously, but pretty much exactly as expected pace the comments above...

Dividend announcement

Highlights

-- Continued policy of six per cent dividend on year-end net asset value per share for annual distribution to shareholders.

-- Total dividends declared for 2023 will be 5.80 pence per share.
-- Dividend to be paid in four equal instalments of 1.45 pence per share in January, April, July and October 2023.

[aleman] 30/12/2022 12:21

Yesterday's NAV 97.01p but down a little today. I expect next year's dividend might be 1.45p?

[lord gnome] 29/12/2022 18:18

Sadly, yes :-(

[contango1] 29/12/2022 15:59

Looks like next year's quarterly dividend will be around 1.4 p/share

[aleman] 14/11/2022 20:08

And another interesting chart:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 14/11/2022 19:55

EAT versus STOXX 50 as far back as the index goes. It outperforms in bull markets and underperforms in bear markets. It could be a false start but it has outperformed by about 7% in the last month. (Ignore the different colors for EAT between the two.)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[podgyted] 14/11/2022 18:10

Its only one week but last week FWIW:-

EAT NAV +9.2%
EMIX Benchmark (GBP) +6.5%
Stoxx 600 (GBP) +3.7%

EAT has been generally falling behind the other two measures in the recent past - I wonder if their investment ethos (quality growth companies)is coming back in Europe.

[aleman] 14/11/2022 17:33

Euro shares up a bit and £ down a bit against the Euro today should see NAV announced above 100p tomorrow. The share price looks like it will indeed test the 200-day very soon, as speculated 2 weeks ago. Can it get through? It does not happen often at the first attempt but it's always good to see it try to, anyway.

[marktime1231] 14/11/2022 16:33

I did wonder if we might see NAV through 100p at the end of the year, and it looks like we are pretty close to that today.

[aleman] 10/11/2022 14:55

NAV is nearly 94p and Euro markets are currently up 2% or so will be nicely higher tomorrow. Is the downtrend broken? EU gas storage is full and there is no significant cold on the horizon to pull it down yet so that side of things is looking promising, though it's early days.

[aleman] 01/11/2022 14:21

It's a year since the share price was so comfortably ahead of the 20-day and 50-day averages. The fact that gas reserves are full and (cooler but) no cold weather is yet foreseen seems to be helping. The crunch month contract for March continues to ease down, over 60% off the highs of August, suggesting markets are comfortable with the gas outlook. German spot electricity is has been down about 90% from recent peaks and is down about 30% or so from a year ago. Ammonia and fertiliser plants are starting up again. If the weather remains reasonable, next stop 200-day average?

[aleman] 31/10/2022 13:47

Has the Madrid Stock index bottomed?



CPI rose slightly in Germany but Spain's fell from 8.9% to 7.3%. EU inflation is now getting patchy. The Spanish index is slightly lower than June - over the 4 months, that's -1.0% annualised. If Spanish inflation is running negative, why is it so high elsewhere in Europe?

[ramellous] 27/10/2022 14:58

That was an interesting presentation, could have told whoever was hammering to knock it off though. Only 31 views on YouTube so not exactly well followed.

[8w] 27/10/2022 13:47

Aleman, thanks for analysis

[aleman] 26/10/2022 23:33

New investor presentation:

[aleman] 26/10/2022 20:50

Cash and equivalents at the interims was 5.9p so there should be little immediate need to sell any depressed stocks to pay the dividends. If they pay 4.4p in H2 there is still 1.5p left (absent further significant trading). However, there are revenue earnings that approach 3p per year which reduce the need to sell, too. They probably push year-end cash to nearly 3p after 4.4p of H2 dividends. If NAV hits 100p at the year end and the dividend turns out to be 6p, it will be nearly half covered by next year's income and only need a slightly more than 3p dip into cash reserves - and less if NAV is lower. That cash looks to be there. In other words, a likely level of dividend for next year is likely to be already about covered before any stock sales are needed (again, absent any singificant trading in the meanwhile) .

One other point to consider. Gas for hour-ahead delivery to Europe fell BELOW ZERO on Monday. LNG tankers are queueing to deliver soon at moderately elevated - but more than halved - November prices but can't as the EU system is full up. There is no gas shortage - just infrastructure and cooperation issues which seem to be slowly improving. The Netherlands Nov gas price has fallen to 99 Euros/MWh from 350 but it's less than half that in Spain and Portugal where there is less need and limited capacity to pipe to the rest of Europe. The reserve shortages and other outages are now patchy. EU electricity generation only uses 15% gas and falling - and the system is packed. French nuclear is slowly coming back on line, increasing spare capacity and allowing more substitution. It's raining again after the drought and the hydro generation outlook is improving a bit. It's all stacking up to be not bad at all unless there is a big cold snap but they might manage even then and any problems might be relatively localised. It's not entirely clear how it will work out but prices have fallen greatly and the outlook has improved greatly. It's still uncertain but looking far better than the low point in August when a series of events indicated a possible crisis brewing. EU shares and bond yields do not really reflect the energy/inflation outlook improvement but are starting to respond a bit. They probably have a bit of catching up to do unless there is a cold snap soon and national self-interest starts getting in the way again. It looks like they will probably muddle through and the inflationary pressures will reverse - but nothing is certain. Such is life.



I topped up recently at 84p+. Apart from the above, inflation was over 10% in the past year. If things normalise to something like how they were next year then, all things being equal, NAV should be over 10% higher. This goes for lots of shares. Some are cheaper than you think at first glance when you look at charts.

[marktime1231] 26/10/2022 19:01

Too early to know or say if we have seen "the" bottom, there have been several possible bottoms so far in 2022. I do hope so though, mighty relieved to see NAV back above 90p, and everything is crossed praying for a recovery to 100p+ by year end.

Looking forward to the dividend landing on Monday, but I am so overweight now I doubt I will be reinvesting here for a prospective 6% yield when there are 8-9% yields available.

[8w] 26/10/2022 18:58

After the drawdown experienced by EAT over the past year I wonder how much damage is done by selling stocks at depressed prices to meet the 6% dividend target?

[aleman] 26/10/2022 16:02

It's trying to break the downtrend. EU markets are up again today near the close.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 26/10/2022 15:47

NAV gone over 90p.

I'm beginning to wonder if these have bottomed, as the 50-day tries to level out for the first time after over a year of falling. Top to bottom, EAT shares have fallen 51.2%. Add in inflation over those 11 months and a real fall of 55-56% sounds like a possibly completed bear market. Why would it have turned? EU energy prices have collapsed after warnings they would double again from what actually turned out to be the summer peak. The main driver of inflation this year has almost completely reversed since August and energy prices are pretty much back to where they were a year ago. (Spots below and futures a bit higher - but falling.) Should EAT's price also return to year ago levels as this feeds through?