Wt Agriculture Discussion Threads

[bluelynx] 07/10/2009 14:00

bob

No I've not considered DBA, but it looks interesting, I'll have a look at it, Thanks for the tip.

BL

[walter walcarpets] 07/10/2009 11:30

bob: re DBA. I do believe it's due to it's better liquidity

[bobdouthwaite] 07/10/2009 11:26

BlueLynx, I'm sure you're right, and things will be more relaxed here! However did you consider the alternative to AIGA, the DB Powershares Agriculture (DBA)? I read some time ago it provided a better return than AIGA, but sorry, I can't remember why, or where I read it.

[bluelynx] 07/10/2009 11:09

I've just invested in AIGA it seems very cheap given the likelihood of inflation increasing greatly, it's hard to believe it's near it's all time low. I can see little downside but the potential upside is surely looking very good.

I was invested in a NGAS but the contango effect was an issue with Natural Gas, I'm much more relaxed holding a spread of soft commodities via AIGA.

[walter walcarpets] 29/9/2009 10:45

sugar breaking out again :>)

[walter walcarpets] 21/9/2009 13:17

......you woke me up posting like that.....ah well back to sleepzzzzz

[traderabc] 21/9/2009 13:12

This is feeble, support is holding (just).

Yawn...

[contrarian2investor] 07/9/2009 12:39

Hi all,

What is your take on the CFTC trading curbs and their implications?


TIA
c2i

[walter walcarpets] 31/8/2009 17:55

wheat could be a strong performer very soon..

[davebowler] 31/8/2009 13:43

www2.standardandpoors.com/.../CommodityPerspective-July09.pdf

[traderabc] 27/8/2009 17:25

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
August 24, 2009

Years have passed since investors seemed to pay attention to anything other than the latest short-term, but irrelevant, number of the day. Perhaps the ESPN approach being applied to business news is part of the reason for that. What might happen next week or next year seems of little concern. However, next week and next year have a habit of becoming today over time.

Sometimes though, short-term events, being largely ignored, unveil longer term developments. One of those might be the drought currently ravaging India’s farmers. Summer monsoons provide more than half of the rainfall in much of India. Indian Agri-Food production is uniquely dependent on those annual rains. This year those rains have not come as expected. Rainfall is about a third less than normal. Agri-Food production will suffer in India as the summer rains are critical to India’s Agri-Food production. Rice production, a major staple, will fall by more than 10%.

[traderabc] 18/8/2009 13:05

Approaching support(again), how tedious....

[sheeneqa] 17/8/2009 14:03

RNS Number : 4046X
ETFS Commodity Secs Ltd
13 August 2009

?
12.08.09
ETFS Commodity Securities Limited
12 August 2009

UBS replaces AIG-FP for Commodity Securities
Further to the announcements made by ETF Securities Limited on 1 July 2009 and
by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited ("CSL") on 5 August 2009 in relation to the
securities ("Commodity Securities") issued by CSL, CSL is pleased to announce
that as expected the Effective Date for the purposes of the agreements between
CSL, AIG Financial Products Corp. ("AIG-FP"), UBS AG London branch ("UBS") and
The Law Debenture Trust Corporation p.l.c. was today, 12 August 2009, and
completion of the novations of commodity contracts referred to in such
agreements has occurred.
Supplementary prospectuses dated 11 August 2009 giving information on UBS and
the new agreements entered into between CSL and UBS have been published and are
available at For the purposes of such
supplementary prospectuses CSL confirms that the Effective Time (as defined
therein) has occurred.
12 August 2009

[traderabc] 11/8/2009 14:34

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
August 10, 2009

Sometime people do learn from history, though the number that intentionally do so are few. Perhaps one of the largest groups of people that seem to lack the ability to learn from history is composed of economists. The facts that they choose to intentionally ignore are near mind boggling. Two asset bubbles, technology and housing, were claimed to be non existent, until they collapsed. Now, that same group of myopic number crunchers believes that economic growth in Western economies is about to reignite. Is some skepticism appropriate?

[walter walcarpets] 10/8/2009 11:56

Talk about a sugar high.

World sugar futures blistered technical resistance levels to surge to new
28-year tops, as massive speculative buying and a constructive fundamental
picture kept the bullish wheels turning.

Nearby October sugar on ICE Futures U.S. rose 101 points to settle at 20.81
cents, near the session top of 20.85 cents.

Sugar futures haven't been this high since April 1981.

For the week to Friday, October sugar soared 220 points, or 11.8%, as traders
realized how entrenched global crop problems had become.

Lower production in India due to dry weather and lower output out of Brazil
are ongoing supportive features, with strengthening global demand and short
stockpiles highlighting the market's balance sheet.

"We went through resistance like a hot knife through butter, and now bulls
will be looking at 23 cents and 23.5 cents for new targets," said Jack
Scoville, analyst and vice president at Price Futures Group.

"There's still a lot of concern about India, and the monsoon doesn't seem to
be getting any better. So people are pretty fired up about it," he said.

An erratic monsoon season in India has left sugarcane fields much drier than
normal for this time of year, and has caused analysts and crop experts to lower
their output projections. Monsoon rains are expected to remain weak for the
next four to five days, the official India Meteorological Department said
Friday.

There will be some revival in rains but most will be in eastern India, a
government weather official said.

India's 2009-10 cane crop is expected to fall to 16 million to 17 million
metric tons, the nation's farm minister said, down from an earlier estimate of
20 million tons. This means the country will have to import more and more sugar
to bridge the domestic shortfall.

India is the second largest sugar producer and the world's largest consumer.

Brazil, the largest producer globally, has problems of its own with a wet
July setting the harvest back and possibly cutting into its 2009-10 cane crop.

To illustrate how demand continues to strengthen, Mexico on Thursday
announced it would import 393,0000 tons of sugar to help overcome short stocks
after a disappointing 2008-09 harvest.

The fact that Mexico is short of sugar means the U.S. may have a difficult
time as it often sources from Mexico to meet demand.

Analysts expect the U.S. government to increase sugar import quotas soon amid
a tight stocks situation. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio has fallen to a razor
thin 3.4%, well below its preferred target of 15%.

Imperial Sugar, the largest U.S. producer, has said the U.S. needs to import
up to 816,400 metric tons by late spring to meet the shortfall.

Aside from the fundamentals, the massive buying interest in sugar is also
feeding the rally, as prices cruise through former resistance areas and trigger
buy stops along the way. This attracts more preprogrammed technical buying.

London white sugar futures also rallied to new highs, boosted by the gains on
ICE and the bullish fundamental and technical setup.

Traders are well aware of the market's extremely overbought status with the
nine-day relative strength index at a hefty 91%, and a correction could come
any day. As long as the news remains bullish, however, prices just may continue
to trek higher, a broker said.

Open interest on ICE sugar rose 12,309 to total 811,332 lots, ICE reported.
Traders continued to take positions out of nearby September and add them to the
March 2010 contract.

Futures volume was estimated at 221,074 lots traded, with 65,995 calls and
29,272 put options traded.

[traderabc] 10/8/2009 10:32

Since when has food been 'rubbish'? Unlike many, many stocks, this has REAL inherent value. How can it not? This 'stock'represents food, something that is essential to life. Most stocks represent greed,fear or misplaced hope.In a few months/years time this will be twice or more todays price, nobody is going to stop eating when that happens, people will continue to pay for food come what may.

Nice steady uptrend, strong support trendline, and good enough to eat.

except for the cotton, which is worn ...obviously.

[hvs] 03/8/2009 15:46

What a LOAD OF RUBBISH.

[davebowler] 03/8/2009 15:44

CED2 is an alternative as a half is in softs.

[traderabc] 30/7/2009 17:38

Spagnolia, This any good?

[spagnolia 1] 29/7/2009 18:41

Hi can anyone post some charts detailing Sugar No.5 London please?

[rathkum] 28/7/2009 13:29

Any of you into Canadian stock Viterra VT.? Grains.

[traderabc] 28/7/2009 13:03

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
July 27, 2009

Some, and perhaps more than we imagine, economic sectors are immune to the failing economic policies of the Obama Regime. Those industries being driven by the dominant global trends should be somewhat resilient to the ongoing economic problems of the U.S. However, none will totally escape as the U.S. is such an important economic center of consumption. How do investors escape this reliance on U.S. economic activity level? The answer is, quite simply, Agri-Food.

[jgoold] 28/7/2009 08:07

Looking for a double benefit from these - long term increases in commodity proces and long term weakness in Sterling.

[walter walcarpets] 27/7/2009 15:27

AndrewBaker - 27 Jul'09 - 15:19 - 518 of 518

precisely why I am here too. I don't trade short-term as I am rubbish at it.

walt