Wt Agriculture Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 10/2/2009 18:26

Went long two days ago, so far I'm down on two days. I had such a good two days before, so much for my picking.
I've just added 50% to the long , averaging down. Stop loss 10% from where we are.
This could do as well as gold in the next few months, the resistance is so much higher.

[andrewbaker] 06/2/2009 18:02

Yeah, I'm about to close my short position here and go long. I'll see what Monday brings ...

[juju43] 06/2/2009 17:46

i see a large inverse H&S developing. could have a nice breakout soon

[andrewbaker] 14/1/2009 14:23

Hazleton- I'm off fundamentals right now as can't see any understandable trend in a lot of things, so going purely on the charts! When they change direction, so do I!

[hazelton] 14/1/2009 13:47

Andrew , do you anticipate a reasonable drop in softs then ?

[andrewbaker] 14/1/2009 12:43

Went short gold/silver and soft agriculture yesterday. I still think that the longer term trend is up, but think there may be a short correction right now, and will take advantage for a little profit (I hope!)

[juju43] 14/1/2009 10:50

dont know why this is struggling. comods. all climbing

[andrewbaker] 09/1/2009 17:37

Hazelton- They can aid investment decisions too by reinforcing a trend, for example, or giving an indication when something has changed: eg here is US$/CHF and gold, where the price of gold tracks the move in the Swiss franc/dollar exchange rate, usually. That is, Swiss franc up, then gold up; or dollar down, gold up if you like.

I'm long gold at the mo, 'cos the US treasury is and will be for some time printing banknotes like there's no tomorrow. This must damage the $ internationally. Gold is the currency that no government can shaft (even though Gordon Brown didn't think it worth holding onto!), and will rise more when nobody trusts paper money any more, like now and going forward. Our wonderful government is going to the printers too, so the £ is not a good bet right now either. Governments call this printing of money "quantitive easing". It would be funny if it wasn't so serious!

[hazelton] 09/1/2009 07:20

AndrewBaker - correlations , I have been quite fascinated this last year with some of the correlations that there seem to be about. John Authers on the FT podcasts is quite good on them. They are interesting food for thought and a source of possible trends to profit from.

[andrewbaker] 07/1/2009 14:10

Hazleton- If oil continues to drop, then buy SAGR. Obviously softs move for reasons other than their use in alternative fuels, but a profitable correlation long and short can be very helpful.

[hazelton] 07/1/2009 13:40

AndrewBaker

But at $40 a barrel I suspect that it will have to rise a bit before its seen as essential to make more ethanol. Another correlation is if oil does rise it may depress the dollar as non US producers sell it , this will not help dollar denominated ETCs.

[andrewbaker] 07/1/2009 12:03

Just became aware of a potentially useful correlation between the price of crude oil and AIGA/SAGR: all the softs in the index used for these ETF are also used to produce ethanol, including coffee grounds! So, as the price of crude rises, and it becomes more financially worthwhile to make biofuels, the cost of these softs should rise too.

Now, is the recent rise in the trend of AIGA due to the oil price rise, or would it have happened anyway. Accidentally I could have been using AIGA as a hedge to my short oil position since Christmas. If oil falls going forward - which I'm betting on - and AIGA continues too rise because of the food aspect, it's win win.

What needs to be considered right now is the annual commodity re-balancing of the AIG indices, which will affect prices. Copper, for example, has risen recently as it is likely to form a bigger part of the index this year; but it is likely to fall back after the rebalancing, which takes place between 9 and 15 Jan.

[notanewmember2] 06/1/2009 20:52

They say they hold the equivalent value in bonds, cash etc. What the same AAA rated bond ones which have been the pivotal cause of the credit contagion?

Just a reality check, I also hold the non physical backed or "implied phyisical backed" but aware that when another SHTF panic occurs, be ready to wake up and they could have zero value.

[hazelton] 06/1/2009 13:52

AndrewBaker

Indeed , £$ I tend to feel that it will eventually fall , oil may be the key. Regards henryatkin spreadbets may be worth investigating. I have a fins account but I dont use it much.

notanewmember2 , I see on the etf securities web site that

"100% Collateralisation of Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs) issued by Commodity Securities Ltd " - " This collateralisation means that the counterparty risk has effectively been removed. "

I wonder how good that is !

[juju43] 06/1/2009 09:36

on our way here now

[notanewmember2] 05/1/2009 20:06

Can someone tell me what happens to these securities after the FED 2 year lending with AIG ends?

Feel safer with the physical backed ETFs than the collateralised ETFs.

[andrewbaker] 05/1/2009 17:35

Personally I do not see the £ doing much against the $ for a long while yet, and when the dollar drops, as it will, the pound will drop as much or more overall, so any dollar investments will benefit when converting to pounds. If one agrees, one can look on it as a short pound investment as well as whatever else it is!

[hodginsjkp] 04/1/2009 20:33

Perhaps small spreadbets are the way to play these and other listad US ETFs. No currency exposure then

[hazelton] 04/1/2009 13:37

AndrewBaker,

I had not given much thought to contango and backwardation but you have a point there. As with all of these investment ventures there is a lot to learn and many mistakes waiting to happen.

With AIGA and AIGG I am sort of expecting a slight pull back which I hope will make a decent entry point. I must say that as most of these ETCs are dollar demoninated I am hoping that the dollar does not decide to resume a weaker direction. There are not many GPB denominated ETCs that I have seen.

[andrewbaker] 03/1/2009 15:12

-Hazelton

I shorted agriculture through SAGR until recently when SAGR and AIGA tended to converge with mutual sideways movement for a while, with AIGA eventually taking over the uptrend: hence my current long. I study charts too, and they confirm the short uptrend appears over, and the long uptrend has restarted. Remember though to look at aspects like contango and backwardation as well as what commodities any instrument invests in, what the split is, and what index is followed. Forward contracts cut down the losses due to contango on long positions as they buy and roll futures say three months forward as opposed to rolling the current to the next month. One can home in on a particular commodity also (say just coffe instead of or as well as AIGS, where it's just a component). I'm enjoying finding out about all these things in trying to improve my investment portfolio, and hope you - and everyone investing in ETF and similar - do too.

[hazelton] 03/1/2009 09:40

AndrewBaker

I am long AIGS in a small position but have been eyeing AIGA from a chart point of view. I wish that I had shorted commodities , particularly energy several months ago. I am a bit dubious about going in now as I wondered if we were not near the end of commodity weakness. Jim Rogers argument is that nobody can raise money under these conditions to bring on extra supply. I guess its a bit fine and commodity strength may be unusual at this point in the business cycle. I take interest in charts as they are what people are doing.

Good luck.

[andrewbaker] 02/1/2009 19:28

-Hazelton

I'm short industrial metals and oil, due to the recession/depression, and long gold/silver for the same reason. I'm long softs 'cos the trend on the charts says so! I guess this is because of supply and demand: whilst we're not making much right now, we still have to eat (regardless of the biofuels effect). Also short (US) financials, though that is tough as sentiment seems to be treating them better than they deserve.

If I get more than half right, I'll be (reasonably) happy (though hope my hit rate is better than that!)

[hazelton] 02/1/2009 19:13

Commodities being strong at this point in the business cycle may be unusual. Do you have any reasoning for why a bull market may be starting ?

[andrewbaker] 02/1/2009 18:15

Made 11% (offer to bid)in December, so happy made the switch from SAGR when I did, as tried a couple of times previously, only for it to prove a false trend change. Let's hope this is a longer term trend change this time!