Eros Media 26 Discussion Threads

[grahamg8] 19/7/2017 16:47

Agree lonrho replacement of the revolving credit is on the cards. That will certainly be holding the shares and the bonds down until finalised. It looks as if a few other people have noticed the disconnect. Price up 6% today. But the graph seems to say there is a good chance of quite a bit more in the short term to around 80p. That's for the bonds if you thought I was punting the shares to go ballistic.

[lonrho] 19/7/2017 09:21

One thing to keep an eye on is that the full year results are already three weeks later than last year and there may be a problem with the audit sign off as from memory the bank facilities were only extended for six months and they need to show adequate facilities for the next year. That being said the cash balance was greater than the facilities coming up for renewal but of course that could change.

[spectoacc] 19/7/2017 08:11

Short the shares, long the bonds would seem the trade, but good luck coping with ERO's volatility. Always been a massive disconnect between share & bond performance but perhaps because upside to shares is (in theory) unlimited, whereas bond upside is redemption in 2021.

Still - the shares say Eros is fine, the bonds say it's not, and I can only hope the shares are right.

[grahamg8] 19/7/2017 07:23

Opened $11.85 closed $13.05, bonds unmoved. Need we say more?

[boonboon] 18/7/2017 18:36

The shares are $12.55 now.

[grahamg8] 18/7/2017 18:08

Yes shares hit bottom at $8.7 early June and have bounced back to $11.8. Meanwhile the bonds have done absolutely nothing during the same period. Puzzling to say the least. I hold bonds and not shares. Topped up this week.

[tightfist] 13/7/2017 13:31

The NYSE share price seems to be on it's way to an inverted H&S so there is emerging confidence in the business on the other side of the pond.Not that I expect the movement of our ERO1 to be rationally (or irrationally!) related to NYSE equity moves.........

[boonboon] 23/5/2017 22:06

I think they've put money into some potentially lucrative China co-productions through their new in house production company Trinity pictures.

[mokhan2] 23/5/2017 22:02

I hold both, but am considering selling the shares as ive just as they seemed to have pulled out of a few big budget movies recently. Could be just prudent cash management though...

[spectoacc] 23/5/2017 16:25

@boonboon - fair enough! IMO the bonds are safer and should make far more to 2021 (and with far more certainty), but I guess they can't multi-bag like the shares could.

[boonboon] 23/5/2017 15:41

I hold both. I believe in the long term potential of EROS, but also can't resist the yield of ERO1.

[spectoacc] 23/5/2017 15:13

I guess one explanation is simply "supply & demand", with the two (Eros & ERO1) attracting almost completely different holders. Wonder how many Eros shareholders also hold ERO1, other than those few "trapped" when the listing moved to the US.

I persist in my belief that ERO1 is about 20p undervalued, whilst acknowledging the slim possibility that the $1bn Eros could be worth zero.

[tightfist] 23/5/2017 10:29

Wow! 70.82p on the Offer!

[tightfist] 23/5/2017 10:08

Specto,Yes, the NYSE shares rose sharply yesterday to an 11 week high. The sluggishness of the Bond price remains a mystery to me, unless one thinks of awareness or liquidity? Painful history suggests that the market is more wise than me!!On the Bond chart this could be the right hand shoulder forming? I am also tempted to top-up at a redemption yield of 16.8%Cheers, tightfist

[spectoacc] 23/5/2017 08:05

Nibbled a few more - Eros is not acting like a share in any kind of trouble, up again yesterday. ERO1 seems to exist in its own little world.

[tightfist] 22/5/2017 16:05

A nice run of what looks like Buys today, maybe word is getting out there - or maybe the debt refinancing is making progress?

[spectoacc] 22/5/2017 08:52

@tightfist - fascinating isn't it. If Eros is in trouble/a fraud/a sham, the shares should be a fraction of what they're trading at - a dollar rather than $10, if not 10 cents rather than $10.

But the bonds - ranking ahead of shareholders - shouldn't be as badly hit as the shares. And yet when you compare the two, the only conclusion is that the bonds are too cheap. Market can't have it both ways.

Any shorting is likely to be in the shares, not the bonds - if it's even possible to borrow the bonds to sell them in the market, you'd have to account for the c.9% yield too. And the shares are a far larger market (c.£600m vs c.£50m).

All of which leaves me confident holding the bonds, but well aware that wipeout is always a possibility.

[tightfist] 18/5/2017 21:26

norton = bottom!

[tightfist] 18/5/2017 21:25

Specto,

As ever ERO1 Redemption Yield seems too good to be true. Someone has got their risk assessment wrong - I am just praying it's the other party - not me......

The NYSE chart looked like it was forming a norton earlier this week.

[spectoacc] 18/5/2017 20:34

Doesn't seem to be hurting the shares much - and they'd have to be some problems for them not to be solved by chucking out a few more shares.

As ever in these situations, relieved that ERO1 is Senior debt.

[my retirement fund] 18/5/2017 19:35

Rumour or rather quite mutterings that Eros has impending liquidity problems.It seems its running short of cash. Guess that could bring about a scenario where creditors petition for bankruptcy if so.

[spectoacc] 12/4/2017 07:24

Thanks. Bond moves always been irrational compared to shares - bonds went to 20-something pence whilst shares never went below market cap of hundreds of millions.

Mind you - I felt like selling at 20-something p, not buying!

[lonrho] 11/4/2017 17:02

Nothing obvious, nothing new on seeking alpha shares currently over 9 in USA, shares steady in India, bond volume not high so guess there must be a large sell which hasn't shown up yet.

[spectoacc] 11/4/2017 15:21

Anything new, or same old? I see shares down to $8-something, which isn't greatly relevant to the ranking-ahead bonds.

[lonrho] 03/4/2017 14:31

Good news but its unusual for a banking syndicate not to continue to want to extract their pound of flesh maybe they've been spooked by the negative press. The RCF was unsecured so its surprising they didn't just renew on a secured basis for the longer term.