Ediston Property Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 25/9/2019 17:17

Specto - afraid you got it wrong re Industrial.

At the time Industrial was indeed looking very pricey; and has subsequently come off the boil. I can recommend reading the CEO of RGL on the matter. They too called the market right and sold down their Industrial as the market cooled down.

I'll look up the link for you...

EDIT: & here it is:

[spectoacc] 25/9/2019 16:13

Interesting read, NAV had risen c.1%, outlook uncertain but reasonable, talking a good game, saying industrial looking very pricey.

Just 6 months later, very little mention of industrial (which continues to be the sector to be in, & likely a long way to go), NAV had declined, minor hit from Arcadia CVA, share price hammered.



If they can at least report a smaller NAV decline, I think they'll be doing well. Anything better than that a big plus, but my guess is the decline in retail warehouses has a way to go - High St first, then shopping centres, now retail warehouses.

Still on the watchlist tho. Everything has a price. A lot of value in property atm, just a matter of what, timing, and price.

[skyship] 25/9/2019 10:46

At the end of October (23rd last year) we will have the NAV for 30th September.

Click on the link below and you'll see we also get an Update. Should all be rather interesting.

[spectoacc] 23/9/2019 15:14

"..Reasonably well covered for a while" might be the nub of it.

Still can't make my mind up on EPIC but doesn't appear to have found a floor yet. They made a very poor decision going into retail parks 18 months ago - would look very different if they did it now (but would they? Are we at the bottom?).

[nickrl] 23/9/2019 15:01

Despite three directors/spouses picking up c38k shares last week price continues to erode albeit at a very slow rate. Yield is 6.7ish even if they don't raise the divi and currently well covered. So even if they are coming under pressure from some of the big names to do hold rents or do deals they are reasonably well covered for a while.

[skyship] 05/9/2019 17:24

Specto - an interesting post as always - however if you re-read you'll see there are as many positives as negatives!

As I believe you accept, edge of town Retail Parks are a different proposition to high street retail and shopping centres. The future there still looks good and new retailers still looking for space.

You may find this of interest:

[spectoacc] 05/9/2019 15:28

Have to say I don't like the look of EPIC at all - is the future really retail sheds? Or did Ediston, 18 months ago, take a punt on the past? Agree that as of right now, they're getting their income. But will they have tenants to re-let to in the future, and at what rent level? Empty rates are a killer.

Vacancy currently fairly low at c.3.5%. Lease length c.6 years. Loads of Carpetright in there but perhaps CPR are done with their CVAs.

Retail sheds do trump the High St to be fair.

To pick one asset - Widness - 8.3% vacancy rate. Tenants:

Marks & Spencer, New Look, Outfit, River Island, Poundland, Next, Boots, Wilko, The Carphone Warehouse, Costa Coffee, Gala, Halfords, KFC.

That's not a list that appeals, tho isn't all bad either. But when does nearly 1 in 12 of the shops being empty become 1 in 6, and is there much hope for the park if that happens? You'd fancy Poundland, Next, Boots, Wilko, Costa, Gala, KFC, but what chances any of the others not renewing over say the next 5 years? Might only have to lose the M&S & the New Look to be in trouble with footfall for the rest. Who would take on empty units, who is expanding or likely to expand? I can't think of (m)any.

But everything has its price to be fair.

[skyship] 05/9/2019 15:08

In Dec'17 the Company issued 79.34m shares at 111.75p! Bizarre to think that the shares are down 22% on that figure - though the NAV is at the same level. Ie, pure Market sentiment.

[skyship] 05/9/2019 15:00

EPIC very well managed with a very deliberate strategy for Retail Warehouse where the letting prospects remain good due to strong demand and a scarcity of supply.

Not an accident about to happen as the Fundamentals are strong; yet HP right that in the short-term the share price has resumed its downtrend. The yields are soft and may continue South for the rest of this year.

That said EPIC now represent extremely good value as at 87p the NAV discount from 111.03p in June = 21.6%; whilst the historic yield (divi monthly) = 6.61%.

Another fact to bear in mind is that the dividend is likely soon to be increased as the historic dividend is covered 1.15x. I'm expecting an increase to 6p/annum for a prospective yield of 6.9%.

[badtime] 08/8/2019 17:27

Sp looking a tad unwell

[skyship] 01/8/2019 11:03

Interesting to read the Property report and stats in UKCM's Q2'19 statement. Retail of course down, but retail warehouse an out-performer in that sector:

[hugepants] 16/7/2019 16:23

With 75% retail exposure I still think this reit is an accident waiting to happen.

[skyship] 12/7/2019 17:01

NED Colin Skinner buys 25k @ 96.75p

[skyship] 12/7/2019 16:17

Happy with that NAV; and especially happy with the dividend cover @ 1.17x.

Dividend likely to be increased soon; but for the moment NAV discount at
13.5% and Yield at 6.0%.

[eeza] 12/7/2019 16:14

Yes, not complaining.

[spectoacc] 12/7/2019 15:58

Decent share price dcb tho.

[eeza] 12/7/2019 15:57

NAV decrease of 1% for the Qtr to 111.03p.

[hugepants] 12/6/2019 16:10

ramellous, That's not really the issue. eg. Hammerson, INTU, NRR, CAL etc will claim the footfall at their centres is close to the highest its ever been but that's not stopped their share prices collapsing. Their property values are being marked down due to anticipated future rent reductions.

[spectoacc] 12/6/2019 15:02

But the issue with EPIC is - did they err in deciding to ditch their previous holdings in things like industrial & offices, in order to concentrate entirely on retail parks. Just seems a bit - early.

Read an article on it that I now can't find to share, but this is from the Half Yearly of a few weeks back:

"INVESTMENT STRATEGY
The conviction call made by the Investment Manager 18 months ago to significantly increase the retail warehouse content of the portfolio was based on a belief that there was fundamental value in the sector relative to other parts of the market, as well as the ability to exploit mispricing within the sector itself. The Board remains very supportive of this strategy and is willing to consider reinforcing the position if suitable opportunities arise. "


Personally, I'm not convinced going into "retail warehouses" (ie retail) 18 months ago is stacking up. This isn't the business it was.

But - it does have a price, and I'll be in when I think it's got there :)

[ramellous] 12/6/2019 14:58

Im not trading REITs. This is purely about income therefore while share price drops can be a bit disconcerting, if the divis keep rolling in I’m happy. I don’t intend selling. I prefer the size of US REITs but with the low £ I’m holding off dipping in over there.

[spectoacc] 12/6/2019 14:47

I agree it's much more about occupancy and rent than about NAV, for EPIC at least (not so CAL, who will breach their debt covenants IMO). However - are the valuers just over-cautious, or were they over-optimistic previously? And what do they do next?

[ramellous] 12/6/2019 14:28

The retail parks EPIC have are the type of places I normally go to in my locale. Still look very busy to me especially where you find Aldi and Lidl. B&M just seems to get bigger and more popular. The discounters all seem to be booming when I go. I have no problem adding to this stock.

[spectoacc] 12/6/2019 06:55

Thanks @Sky. Surely the issue is the recent NAV drop (much as at NRR), and whether EPIC should be on a much larger discount - perhaps not BLND/LAND-style, certainly not INTU-style, but bigger nonetheless.