OK, let's say some entities are dumping as a tax loss and are price insensitive. Same outcome. |
There is clearly demand, albeit not in the open market at this stage, it would also appear another 10m has moved to another holder, based upon 2 late prints reported post todays close. |
No, demand < supply. |
How on earth is the share price still static.....MMs holding this back? |
But why?
Do they have a cunning plan?
The trading update has, understandably, trashed the share price
But the value of the IP {whatever it might be} may even have increased. |
Lol..and now they are circa 21%! |
Apologies it's the 2nd RNS...First Equity Ltd who have bought increasing stake from 7.1 to ~17%.. |
They sold, didn't buy. |
Cannacord holdings snapping up cheap shares at bargain price, that's significant increase in stake of ~10%! |
Correction more than double! |
Fascinating development and Cannacord holdings clearly moved to a willing buyer. |
And check another RNS II doubles stake! |
Cannocord down to zero now. |
RNS Out - Increase stake to 17% |
The market is bifurcated and a number of the mid-small players need cheap per metre directional and the big suppliers are expensive to engage and run with. There is a gap to exploit there. IF it's NTQ that gets there it also has potential for really useful cashflow in the rental model.
However, it's looking like < 50:50 at the mo. I doubt they can raise many more times and the IP still has value of they wind it up even if not yet a finalised product.
It's a toss-up.
Question is - were new potential customers at Catoosa and were they put-off? |
I guesstimate they raise and raise again, until they can raise no more, and never sell a single unit. More and more engineering mods etc.
If I wanted drilling equipment I wouldn't buy it from such a tiny company.
I might be wrong of course. |
They raised $2.1M to carry them through from Oct 2024 approx (raised Sept 2024, completed Oct 2024) to July 2025. They had $1.087 at the end of Sept 2024 half year report. So they had something like $3.1M to cover say 9 months. Towards $340K/month.
Say they are delayed 3 months. They will need a further $1.1M to get back to the same runway length plus some for the new engineering expenditure? $1.5M extra?
Anyone else care to guesstimate?
Sept 2024: "Accordingly, the current cash runway, based on current cash resources, and before any potential cost savings, is now expected to be shorter than previously outlined at the time of the 2024 fundraise." |
Fully agree sebass. Time for optimising has now passed. Management has invested our surplus cash, freehold property, proceeds from surplus working cap and operating activities into SABER. Time to see if there is any value? |
Great except we are running out of money and if we do another capital raise might as well hand over the company for free at this price. They need to see if someone will buy the company |
Exactly the less the wrinkles the more valuable the product will become, also if recommendations are made during testing then it makes complete sense to get these modifications done now rather later when this would cost twice as much! |
The fewer technical wrinkles the more valuable SABER if they decide to sell out to a big boy with a de-risked product. |
Zen, it proved principles of operation and proved a key test objective. If that's enough why not deploy but they are not? Happy to be open minded. |
Even without this glitch I seriously doubt that they could have generated revenue fast enough to avoid another fundraising. |
It's clearly deployable as per RNS, it's already met its key objective. These modifications are for further improvements as I read it: The SABER tool again proved the principles of operation and steering by generating 'dog-leg', building and turning the angle during drilling, thereby achieving one of the key test objectives.· Additionally, as a result of this testing the team have identified a number of engineering modifications and operational procedures to be implemented and tested in future drilling operations. |
If SABER is not deployable as is this lot has no value at all. They have no choice but to get it right or close shop now.
The good thing is management have a lot of skin in the game and will pull out all the stops to make it deployable.
The bad thing is management have a lot of skin in the game so are more likely to ride this off a cliff as it's hard to admit it's a non-starter and close shop sooner rather than later.
Which is it? |
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