Enquest Share Discussion Threads

[colebrooke] 22/4/2019 09:52

Bullish for oil and EnQuest:SAUDI ARABIA IS WILLING TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT TO COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LOSS OF SUPPLY IF U.S. ENDS IRAN OIL WAIVERS BUT KINGDOM MUST SEE IMPACT ON OIL MARKET FIRST - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH SAUDI THINKING

[stansmith3] 22/4/2019 09:49

onedeuchebag turns up...did he mention enq easing through 22 at 66 brent?or would he rather people forgot that?has he moved the goalposts again?im sure he added value to the conversation as alwayslolol

[onedb1] 22/4/2019 09:42

Brent spot is over $74 now !! Flying . Excellent

[stansmith3] 22/4/2019 08:46

makes sense, he must have a plan - say shale projections ;) - going into next election cyclei still think later this year could be multi year high for poo, so am looking to sell all oil equities q4

[gregpeck7] 22/4/2019 08:39

The administration will want to nail the Iran issue for the next presidential campaign. They are simply running out of road. Need to sort it one way or the other.

[american idiot] 22/4/2019 07:56

The Trump administration won’t renew waivers that let countries buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions, according to four people familiar with the matter, a move that roiled energy markets and risks upsetting major importers such as China and India.

[american idiot] 22/4/2019 07:54

Oil climbed to a new five-month high on Monday following a report that the US will stop giving sanctions waivers to countries that import Iranian crude or condensate.

Brent was $71.40 at 4.30pm last Thursday.

Brent currently $73.14 having touched $73.8 earlier.

It could be real fun tomorrow if this continues :-)

[stansmith3] 22/4/2019 06:57

seems pence will announce increased output from the usual suspectsso price rise must be based on spare capacity going out the window?wouldnt want to be out of this over the summer ;)

[leoneobull] 22/4/2019 06:47

Part 2 oil price Article "This may turn out to be a black swan event as it would force the OPEC+ alliance to reopen the oil spigots," Brennock tells CNBC.Speaking of a black swan event, Goldman Sachs' head of commodities research Jeff Currie told CNBC earlier this month that such an even would more likely be economic and monetary policy changes in a major economy, such as China or the United States.Goldman Sachs is one of the investment banks that don't see oil prices reaching $80 a barrel as they did in Q3 last year because there's only modest upside to price gains.  Citigroup, however, sees more upside than downside in oil prices.Bank of America Merrill Lynch says "the risk of a Brent crude oil price spike is significantly higher than options markets suggest," as the new regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to cap the sulfur content in ship fuel are bound to further disrupt the oil and refining markets by the end of this year."Crude oil's near-40% rally from the December low has resulted in both WTI and Brent clawing back half the losses seen between October and December. With global demand growth holding up despite the prospect for lower global growth, the market has instead been left to focus on a near-perfect storm of price-supportive supply news," Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in the bank's Q2 2019 Quarterly Outlook."With Opec+ continuing to cut production and the US forcing down exports from Iran and Venezuela, only a major change in the outlook for demand will alter the current positive sentiment," Saxo Bank's expert noted in early April.  Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC producers need oil prices above $80 for budget purposes and are unlikely to be happy with only $70 a barrel Brent, Hansen said, adding:"On that basis, we expect supply to be kept tight over the coming months, thereby supporting a potential extension towards $75/b before it eventually runs out of steam amid renewed concerns about the negative impact to global growth."  By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[leoneobull] 22/4/2019 06:46

Part 1 of oil priceAfter rallying more than 30 percent year to date, oil prices could be set for a further upside in coming weeks as a combination of near-term bullish supply-side factors could push prices higher than current levels.Over the next few weeks, several critical geopolitical events could set the trend for even higher oil prices in coming months. These events, combined with a tightening global oil market, could leave prices vulnerable to any sudden supply outage on top of the production cuts by OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC allies.  Experts who have recently spoken to CNBCrecognize the fact that the oil market may be set for a major disruption on the supply side, although they diverge on who the single biggest disruptor may be.The three top candidates are Iran, Venezuela, and Libya. All three OPEC producers were exempted from the cartel's production cuts that began in January and are expected to last at least until June. And all three have shown so far this year that there was good reason to be exempted-their respective production has been either falling or volatile, and set for further disruptions in coming weeks and months.According to Stephen Brennock, an oil analyst with PVM Oil Associates, it's Libya that will pose the biggest geopolitical risk to oil markets.Eastern strongman General Khalifa Haftar ordered earlier this month his Libyan National Army (LNA) to march on the capital Tripoli. The self-styled army has been clashing with troops of the UN-backed government in a renewed confrontation that could escalate and threaten to disrupt, once again, Libya's oil production and exports."Oil production in the country has yet to be disrupted however I suspect it is a matter of when not if. General Haftar and his eastern Libyan forces are determined to seize Tripoli and with it comes the inevitable risk of supply outages," Brennock told CNBC in an email.Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), believes that it's Iran and the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry that is the most important supply-side issue. The unpredictability of the U.S. Administration's policy could result in the U.S. cutting off waivers for Iranian oil customers due to expire in early May, Birch told CNBC.Many other analysts, however, believe that the U.S.-despite its continued talk of "maximum pressure" on Tehran and "zero exports" from Iran-will be more lenient, again, toward the key Iranian oil buyers. The reason-fear of driving oil (and gasoline) prices too high.Some analysts say that with the focus on tightening the sanctions on Venezuela and Nicolas Maduro's regime, the U.S. could go softer again on Iranian customers, because those two supply disruptions combined, plus a possible outage in Libya, could tighten the market too much and result in oil prices overshooting.

[leoneobull] 22/4/2019 06:42

Yes a tweet to open probably..He has already spoken to Saudis. It might go to high 70s then after month or two opec offer to ease off cuts slightly...to avoid Iran waivers ending spiking POO all year?

[stansmith3] 22/4/2019 06:42

is anyone else holding on for master gaslighters 20.8 & 20.4 calls?he did say just on thursday NOT to forget theseso i am NOT forgetting

[leoneobull] 22/4/2019 06:40

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Perfect-Storm-That-Could-Drive-Oil-Even-Higher.html

[stansmith3] 22/4/2019 06:40

if true, presumably trump has something already planned to offset this in time for driving season starting?

[leoneobull] 22/4/2019 06:38

Hi, here is something I thought you might find interesting: U.S. prepares end to Iran sanctions waivers, triggering oil price spike For the full story: https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-to-announce-end-to-sanctions-waivers-for-iran-oil-imports--washington-post-1491090

[gregpeck7] 22/4/2019 03:18

Oil going nuts. The rumour is waivers are ending for Iran... 75 plus oil here we come.

[gregpeck7] 22/4/2019 02:20

Well oil up a dollar in Asia. This could be a good week. The world is waking up that shale producers are preferring profitability to output and the Saudis are not opening the taps. If Libya goes pop 100 dollar oil is almost a certainty.

[american idiot] 21/4/2019 09:36

Profitaker,

Only 70% of Kraken production is to Enquest.

Also, the first 3 months of 2019 Kraken production was well below market expectations (I have this down as low as 20k - 25k due to a combination of a breakdown onboard in January, bad weather during winter months possibly slowing production + also delaying offloads and also possible limited production during connectivity of DC4 recently)

So we are going to need a few months of 40k - 45k production in order to get back on track with market expectations and then who knows past that. Enquest set the bar very conservatively with expectations for Kraken production in 2019 so there is potential for upside here later in the year providing 40k - 45k production continues.

Average Group production expected to grow by around 20% to between 63,000 to 70,000 Boepd; production has averaged 67,700 Boepd in the first two months of the year

Based on the above (Which really positively surprised me considering Kraken performance was dire in Q1 2019) even allowing for scheduled maintenance I think FY 2019 will see production come in towards the higher end of market expectations as other assets (Most likely Magnus) are performing better than expectations.

As always though, it is all about the price of Brent.(because we really do need to be pumping oil for shareholders and not to just service our debts)

So far so good on that.

[cumnor] 21/4/2019 09:21

Even if Kraken guidance (32000) is met for this yer expect a share price of 70p eoy IF poo stays at this level-or higher if it increases. It will hammer the debt in no time-to an acceptable level-and the market will suddenly wake up to its low mrkt cap.

[profitaker] 21/4/2019 07:23

"If kraken is doing 45,000 what are people’s thoughts on group production levels?"

The Kraken mid-point guidance was 32,500 so if it's consistently producing 45,000 that will up the total guidance from "63,000 to 70,000" to 75,500 to 82,500.

Don't forget Kraken has a 3-week schedule maintenance shutdown in Q3 which will reduce the measured annual production by about 2000-2500 Bopd.

[stansmith3] 20/4/2019 18:00

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041919-opec-russia-alliance-has-long-term-future-saudi-adviser

[gregpeck7] 20/4/2019 13:05

If kraken is doing 45,000 what are people's thoughts on group production levels?

[gregpeck7] 20/4/2019 08:51

Seen the posts re kraken on lse looks incredibly positive. If kraken is performing at that level with the current high demand for heavy oil, have a extra pint this weekend!