Enq 23 �pik Tog Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 28/1/2016 17:12

It seems there is a willing buyer appeared happy to take fairly large chunks at this 31.5/32.5p level

[p@] 28/1/2016 09:00

Just bought a few of these at 30.85 ,if ENQ goes under do these senior bonds inherit the fields they are secured on?
Anyone any experience of senior bonds?

[hpcg] 13/1/2016 10:05

Yes and no. Or No and yes. Timing makes such a difference to the outcome. I do feel uncomfortable, but on the other hand the more pain oil producers feel, and I'll include the super majors as well as the NOCs, the more likely that steps will be taken to reduce supply. The integrated companies can at least profit from downstream margins, which gives them scope to cut back on infill drilling. My main concern now is the long end of the curve. Plus I'm not sure the company is taking the long picture into careful enough consideration with its development plans.

[badtime] 12/1/2016 19:59

HP.....still happy?

[hpcg] 07/1/2016 10:38

I'm actually happy with respect to my holding in these bonds that the oil price is where it is, and going down. A shock to un-hedged producers, not least NOCs, is required to drop production and get prices up to a sustainable level. The sooner the better given the hedge timetable.

[p@] 07/1/2016 08:26

Trade gone through at 35p not showing on chart.

[briggs1209] 12/12/2015 03:09

bonds and equities not quite going against each other but could be close. We might now start to see bonds pick up a little as equities bottom. Plenty of talk of how the low price will go on for years - close to capitulation?

Shale's not going to go away but this last 18 months will mothball a lot of $80 a barrel projects

[hpcg] 07/12/2015 17:25

Ords should really be hovering around 0 with bonds at this price.

[badtime] 07/12/2015 16:55

Bonds up a tad but ords continue to suffer

[11_percent] 05/12/2015 07:36

Gross yield to redemption - 25.8%

[badtime] 04/12/2015 18:20

:)Nope...I'll keep the other nibble for now though

[my retirement fund] 04/12/2015 17:05

Hmm no change to the global oversupply problem again oul headed even lower. Oil cos getting hammered ENQ touching new lows and can only fall further.Did you nibble lol.

[badtime] 03/12/2015 20:23

Considering another nibble

[badtime] 27/11/2015 22:36

I was teasing a little ....RUSP goodun

[my retirement fund] 27/11/2015 17:20

Bt nope to risky she would not want to risk a dividend holiday then some long drawn out restructuring. ..she may not live long enough for all of that shananigans.She did want some risk though so reinvented in RUSP for a very regular and healthy 9%.

[eastwind] 27/11/2015 15:36

ENQ has hedge 10 million barrels at $68 in 2016. They will produce 14 million in 2016. So most have been hedged. The average price could be $60 in 2016 after hedging. Their cost will be low $30 in 2016. So make it $33. The profit per barrel is $27. They will have $378 million operating cash flow.

This should be able to pay the debt interest and use some for Kraken.

[badtime] 27/11/2015 14:15

MRF will u be putting your Mums LMS dosh in here :)

[badtime] 27/11/2015 12:36

HP cheers for reply

[hpcg] 27/11/2015 12:27

badtime 40.14 plus accrued interest. I also have some at 63.7, which look less smart.

Eddie1980 is as good an analysis as you are likely to find. But noting since then the change to the subordination to be on a par with the US issue in return for removing covenants which are absent the US bonds


Edit - quite possible the 40.14 will not look smart in either the near or distant future.

[badtime] 27/11/2015 11:35

HP..how much did u pay?

[briggs1209] 27/11/2015 10:51

gross redemption yield on UK tranch is now 25%.

[eddie1980] 26/11/2015 16:01

Looked at the US bonds - they are 7% coupon for 39p, rather than 5.5% - anyone got any ideas of whether there are any other differences?

US Bonds run to April, UK bonds to Feb so they are different issues.Both run to 2022.

[hpcg] 26/11/2015 15:49

mrf - no, I'm not expecting supply to tighten in the short term. I am expecting it to come down in the medium term just through natural decline and a drop off of infill drilling.

The questions for any debt are:

Can the company in question generate enough money to remain operational?
Can the company in question keep its banks happy?
Can the company make its interest payments and avoid default?
Can it generate the cash to pay back the principle, or otherwise refinance to be able to do so?
If it can't pay back the principle are there assets to back it up?

I think ENQ will be able to make it through the short term - meaning 2016 - where after oil prices will very likely have improved. The hurdle rate when buying at this level is also much lower. I don't need to get the full principle back, just what I have paid.

There is without doubt risk, hence the potential reward.

[my retirement fund] 26/11/2015 15:25

Are you expecting some sort of opec tightening the HPCG to curb the oversupply?