Insurance ?
FFS
What about the personnel onboard, are they being evacuated this week ahead of the anticipated events
This is the largest bomb anywhere near the Med |
And now the Israeli invasion of Lebanon begins.
Yep, that'll make all the shorts close in blind panic... |
Despite the rhetoric, the share price will recover strongly & over-leveraged short sellers will face margin calls & be forced to close their positions at a loss. Looking for a strong finish by the weekend. Enjoy the ride TBTT. |
Hezbollah have just tried (and failed) to blow up the FSPO! I gave you the link to a reputable Israeli journalist close to their military.
The odds are they'll try again. And war has changed; naval targets have been exposed as very vulnerable to low tech drone attack. Look at the success the Ukrainians have had with little more than adapted jet-skis loaded with explosive.
As to insurance, I've got no idea if military action is covered. You'd need specialist advice on that. |
Tiger maybe they see it as a target but just as the iranians wont let them use long range missiles i doubt they would let them blow up the FPSO unless of course they wanted to bankrupt themselves by their oil refineries being turned into fireballs. The FPSO is guarded by the Israeli navy and is apparently insured. Good luck with your short though you could be correct. |
Two things:
1. Hezbollah (even in their current state of confusion) have confirmed with facts that they see the gas fields as a target;
2. As Ukraine shows, war has changed, and naval targets are now vulnerable to attacks by swarms of drones. The Russians haven't yet managed to work out a coherent defence against this tactic, as witnessed by their defeat in the Black Sea. |
Tell that to the CFO. |
You do realises the Israelis have just announced there was a drone attack on Karish?!?
This one thwarted. But there will be more. Hezbollah is not exactly short of drones, rockets and missiles!
Share price is crazily high. At the least the field will have to be shut down for safety reasons.
Source for that with video: @ItayBlumental on Twitter. |
Shorts have gone quiet today, wonder why. 🤔 |
Well chutes, it's up 8% in Tel aviv this morning, probably after that report on Israel also destroying their land to sea missile capabilities on Friday, Telegraph yesterday. |
Field will be S/D and downmanned.
Huge fall Monday |
The Shia "front" is hardly likely to give a damn about hurting the economies of Egypt and Jordan!
I'd say on "a maximum effect for minimum effort" basis the gas fields are the best target available to Hezbollah. (That is, once they've gotten over their current confusion caused by the Israeli assassination campaign.)
Interesting to note how extreme Turkey's anti-Israeli rhetoric has become. They're saying stuff you'd expect from Syria or Iran, but not from a member of NATO.
The only "hope" for de-escalation I can see is a bad one - that Iran is in the very last stages of nuclear break-out and doesn't want a fight until it's finished building the bomb.
Anyhow, it's clear the market needs to adjust majorly for these new circumstances. I think down to 600p in a couple of weeks, just to account for the inherent risk. If Hezbollah actually hit the gas fields then obviously lower. |
Although these gas fields including leviathan and Karish are all perilously close to the Lebanon border, there are several countries in the region ie Egypt and Jordan that also rely on these fields for gas supply.
There is a mutual agreement between Israel and Lebanon with regards both benefitting from these fields.
Although the significant risk is there to see, I think it's unlikely that the area will be targeted even by Hezbollah because it would alienate them from other Arab nations, and inflict damage indirectly on the Lebanese too.
Monday will be interesting for sure |
 Yes, I do remember, I was there. And not gibberish.
It took a week for most Russian and Ukrainian shares to crash properly, with some wild swings included (I remember a couple of 50% rallies). All in all, it was obvious that Russia was going to attack Ukraine if you were watching closely (the movements of Putin's personal mega-yacht and the provision of fresh blood supplies to Russian medical units at the front before the attack were absolute giveaways if you know Russia).
So, I imagine it will take a week or two for the full ramifications of Netanyahu's wildly irresponsible actions to be priced in here. It's said that the Iranians have enough bomb-grade uranium to make about 4 nukes by now, so I imagine that we'll soon see Israel warplanes bombing Iran, and maybe a blockade of Hormuz in response.
In short, buy non-Gulf oil stocks, and maybe gold. This will be a major war. And short ENOG. It is hopelessly, pitifully vulnerable. As always, jurisdictional risk trumps all other considerations. |
What gibberish.
Err remember the price of ferrexpo after Russia started that war. |
Heading to £4 |
MAJOR escalation in Lebanon tonight - full-out war now looks likely. Hezbollah is meant to have something like 120,000 to 150,000 rockets and missiles, so a determined barrage will overwhelm Israel's defences with simple force of numbers.
Market just hasn't priced in this risk properly.
The market was very sluggish in pricing in the risks at the start of the Ukraine conflict as well. Our stock markets twitch on financial news, but seem to take time to properly assess geo-political risk. But they get there in the end. |
If hezbollah HIT THE FSPO, Israel would still have gas from leviathan field but would not be able to export to Egypt, or Lebanon, it's 2 biggest export markets (which it is a significant supplier of). If they wanted Israel with no power, they would go after the power plants but can't because they don't have the ability........ With the war unwinnable in my view, I believe the asset safe & also believe the gas line will be built through Gaza into Egypt, which the company says will increase it's sales capacity & pricing. |
Hezbollah don't benefit but everyone else in Lebanon does, it would be like 5h1tt1ng on your own doorstep. And Karish is probably the most protected infrastructure in Israel.
If all the scaremongering gibberish was true and there was a serious risk, the share price would be much lower than it is. |
It’s very sensitive
Hezbollah will stop at nothing now, they are wounded
Why anyone would go near the asset now is remarkable and this makes them uninvestable now
End of |
Question: do Hezbollah benefit financially (either directly or indirectly) from the Qana gas field?
If it is a source of revenue for them that might restrain them from attacking ENOG's asset, out of fear of retaliation.
If not, then why hold back? It's an easy, undefended target whose destruction would cause immense economic damage to Israel. It would even look spectacular on TV. |
At least one director disagrees & has added 8000 shares. |
It will kick off soon
Not a time to be invested here |
I would think the IRGC should be more worried about the Israelis hitting Kharg and/or Jask |
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