Encore Oil Share Discussion Threads

[lanaken] 07/12/2011 15:17

Tudor Rose 20mm bbl at $8.5.

For Information

XEO's figures, based on CPR May 2011, were

Tudor Rose West (Discovery) CoS 75%

Gross resources Contingent

3C 105mm, 2C 60mm, 1C 27mm

Tudor Rose East

Gross resources Prospective CoS 45%

P90 4mm, P50 75mm, P10 327mm


I wondered if PMO have teed up a buyer yet?

Enquest would seem suitable.

I am surprised that they didn't come to AB's rescue.

repo

PS 4m+ went through at 78p in one trade

[ohisay] 07/12/2011 14:14

Re TR - got a view from Edison as regards NPE - just double it for EO.


ie 55m $ on a 36% COS - equivalent to 12p per share risked to EO/ 33p unrisked -if my maths is correct.

[sg31] 07/12/2011 12:41

The weather hasn't been particularly good. Strong winds, so delays might have occurred.

[leedskier] 07/12/2011 11:51

17 November 2011

Press Release

For immediate release: 17 November 2011

EnCore Oil plc ('EnCore' or 'the Company')

Commencement of Drilling Operations on Tudor Rose

EnCore Oil plc (LSE: EO.) announces that the Tudor Rose well 14/30a-5 in Central North Sea block 14/30a was spudded at 14:22 hours on the 16 November 2011.

The EnCore operated well is being drilled using the Transocean Sedco 704 semi-submersible rig and is being managed by Applied Drilling Technology International (ADTI). The well is expected to take approximately 20 days to complete subject to weather conditions and operational requirements.

[leedskier] 07/12/2011 11:49

The 20 days of drilling is up today.

[wolansm] 07/12/2011 11:26

something going on with these spikes.

[lanaken] 07/12/2011 11:25

CNF,

TAQA can't deal with Encore unless the deal doesn't get voted through.

You have to ask yourself why they didn't go to Encore directly.

repo

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 11:18

Failing that I'm not against a financing deal like TAQA worked with WZR recently, they bought 19.9% of the company for something like $43m cash through an additional placing or some such from memory. Some sort of arranged finance with TAQA is a possibility, we'd not need much more to continue appraising and exploring the GCA, $20-30m would sink a lot of holes. :) A 10% financing would get £22m in cash for a 30m placing, 325m shares in issue hardly the end of the world given the future assets Cladhan, Catcher, Burgman, Varadero, Carnaby, Coaster et al.

Captain Nelson Forties

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 11:10

Cash,

Agreed, PMO know exactly what they're doing but their price currently doesnt reflect PMO + EO. As we all know they picked the bones of Oilexco clean so its their M.O. :) I'm not so sure that this is a done deal just yet, otherwise I'd have sold up and moved on. I'm here till the deal is done or we're cast loose. If so I'd fully expect the management here to chase down that offer for Cladhan and Coaster from TAQA. Coffers would be overflowing, Catcher, Vara, Burgman would still have superb appraisal potential, Carnaby and Coaster are already in PMO's to do list in H1 2012 so that would be the same for EO if they were cashed up thanks to TAQA. I'm not throwing in the towel just yet, we've had a few hard rounds but TR may just keep us fighting. :) If TR is successful I could see PMO sticking a for sale on it too, that again would reduce their acquisition price of EO to peanuts.

Captain Nelson Forties

[chessman2] 07/12/2011 11:10

The market seems to be telling us that drilling at TR has been successful or is it that another purchaser is in the background?

Either way I hope that PMO do not get their 75% and have to make a formal bid beginning with an 8 or even 9.

We will see quite soon.

[fangorn2] 07/12/2011 11:09

I think it shows what a weak position EO management were in CNF. PMO can afford to take its time on asset sales, so likely to get better prices. EO was very much a distressed seller(or that is how it has been perceived by the likes of Taqa. Why else didn't Taqa pay EO what they are paying PMO?)

Pretty peeved myself that the takeout price is so low.

[p@] 07/12/2011 11:08

C&C-agreed ,there is more to this deal than we know.

[p@] 07/12/2011 10:42

Thnx-I have certificates so I'll wait as usual.

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 10:39

I've advised my broker to accept the PMO offer yes, but its not final until they get the required %. My shares are still EO. until the deal goes through. If the deal falls apart I still have my EO, or if another better offer is made by PMO clearly my broker will accept the better offer. Its not done and dusted yet.

Captain Nelson Forties

[p@] 07/12/2011 10:37

CNF-I thought you had accepted the offer for PMO shares?Can you still withdraw it?

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 10:30

Wrightey,

If TR comes in on or exceeds expectations I can see the NO vote rising. Nothing to stop EO management going to Taqa and saying was it $54m Cladhan and 50% of Coaster you were after? ;) Imo if TR comes in PMO will need to improve the paper offer to ensure they get a resounding yes. Noone here is forced to accept the PMO offer, it already sigificantly under-values EO. The current offer with a potentially succesful TR would look really silly.

Captain Nelson Forties

[fangorn2] 07/12/2011 10:26

Here's hoping. PMO have definitely underpaid that's for sure. Question is, will any likely second suitor be able to raise the capital to fund an acquisition in these dire financial times. Capital is very scarce, and that which is available comes at a high cost.

[wrightey] 07/12/2011 10:23

Could today be the day when EO goes through 80p and another offer comes in?

[ianbrewster] 07/12/2011 10:12

Steve

sorry to mislead, but on checking my EO shares are in my SIPP - not with iDealing!

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 10:09

Repo,

True, there is an additional lobe to TR that may also contain oil, the 50mmbbls is really just for stage one if they can prove up oil and reservoir quality across the main discovery at present. That is why a successful result may have an impact on the deal. Could PMO really argue that EO is still worth their 17mmbbls total if TR comes in at 40% interest? Hmm. If the deal remains unchanged then PMO are getting a hell of a deal. If the API is almost intermediate and they appraise it successfully in the future its potentially worth similar to what they're paying for EO as a whole. Of couse there is plenty of speculative risk in that at present as we havent even gotten the first result in yet let alone talk about appraisal of TR. :) But its still a possible scenario at present.

Captain Nelson Forties

[lanaken] 07/12/2011 09:56

Do we have a little leak again?

marben,

CNF's numbers seem t be in the right ballpark. However there is potential for a lot more if you read the NPE preesentation I linked above.

repo

[captainnelsonforties] 07/12/2011 09:41

Mark,

I've not seen an unrisked price on TR per share, but its reasonable impact if it were to come in at 50mmbbls P50 as suggested in that Nautical presentation posted recently by Repo. At 40% interest that's some 20mmbbls net to EO, but the well would need to come in with the characteristics modelled in the prospective report. It could be quite a material asset if the API is high enough and low wax and at 40% its quite high impact to EO. As for the management here, I kinda think they rolled over too easily. They didnt want to dilute fair enough, but should they have rolled over or tried to sell some assets. Clearly there is a buyer out there to Cladhan. They should have waved Cladhan about add see if they got any bites, clearly Taqa liked it. Even $40m let alone $54m would have sunk multiple wells in several campaigns in the GCA proving more oil up to P2 rather than selling it on the reserve positions of single discovery wells. Farm-out 50% of Coaster to Taqa or gone sole risk, options would have been there. Fully appraised would have maximised the value, early sale and no production maximises the value to PMO. Not only will they fully appraise these discoveries increasing current P2 they'll also produce from them at $120-130/bbl or wathever the oil price is 2014-2015. :)

EO had options, clearly sell Cladhan was one, sell TR may have been another in a week or two depending on results. They've received an offer for some cheap ISA-able PMO and taken it, it was by no means a last resort. I dont see why Taqa wouldnt have put the same deal on the table for EO as they have for PMO.

Captain Nelson Forties

[steve73] 07/12/2011 09:21

thanks Ian,

I see nothing on thier corporate actions page, and they advised me, in respose to an e-mail, that they would charge me if I want them to vote for me.

How did they contact you to seek your election - and when?
TIA