Encore Oil Share Discussion Threads

[rhubarbe] 20/12/2011 19:36

Always provided that POO sticks more or less where it is, cash...

[cashandcard] 20/12/2011 19:31

CNF,

Take your point. But I seriously believe Catcher and the GCA would have unlocked far more value under Encore's hat. Yes, a large part of that relies on a discovery - very large discovery - at Coaster or several discoveries at the Blueball prospects & remaining Catcher area. The potential was immense because of how the company was being run and there was virtually zero dilution to factor in. Unfortunately, that policy has also put the squeeze on Encore when the times got tough. Anyway, PMO, AEY, IAE, SLG are the ones to be in now. All produce or are very close to producing. Cashflow is critical to any oil company that wants to survive and go forward to thrive. For that reason, DEO and some others will take a back seat until they attain finance. But certainley on the watchlist.


Cash

[captainnelsonforties] 20/12/2011 16:29

It just goes to show how closely linked we are to PMO now, TR result comes out and EO is up on the day!

Cash,

You cannot possibly be serious to say that AEY doesnt have the upside of EO. Have you considered that in 18 months time (not long in this business) AEY will have annual cash flow of around $300m pa. Canadian companies trade at a conservative x3-5 cash flow and one Canadian broker put at target of $8.00/share on AEY when Fyne production kicks in. That's just about x8 the current share price. I'm sure you also realise if AEY goes sole risk and hits oil in Carra they could have a possibly higher P2 than IAE! they're sure as heck catchin up with them since Erne came in. Not to mention that Repsol discovered what is thought to be 900m of shale oil close to AEY's argie shale licence. The only way EO had x8 upside was by getting an excellent result from sole risk on Coaster and bringing some of these through to production, not selling reserves at $8-10/bbl. PMO will get the benefits from these developments now though.

Captain Nelson Forties

[typhoon] 20/12/2011 15:26

Operations Update



EnCore Oil plc (LSE: EO.) announces that the Tudor Rose well 14/30a-5 in Central North Sea Block 14/30a has reached Total Measured Depth of 3,590 feet.



The well encountered an oil column within the target Beauly Formation and Oil Water Contact at 3,236 feet Total Vertical Depth Subsea. Wireline sampling and pressure testing of the hydrocarbon bearing zone has been undertaken and initial wellsite analysis of the samples suggest a viscosity of 600-800 Centipoise, which is likely too viscous to be commercially exploitable. Further onshore analysis will be required before this provisional evaluation can be confirmed. The well will now be plugged and abandoned.



Commenting on the result, Alan Booth, EnCore's Chief Executive Officer said:



"The principal objective of this well was to establish the gravity and viscosity of the oil in place at Tudor Rose to determine if the oil may be capable of commercial exploitation; these provisional results suggest that this is unlikely to be the case. Although the well took longer than expected due to the poor offshore weather conditions we are pleased that EnCore's final well prior to its acquisition by Premier Oil was drilled safely and without incident."

[talkman] 20/12/2011 14:38

Without the PMO offer and given the dire market conditions we would be well below 50p on this news.Crazy I know but the market is terrible at the moment.

[idleduck] 20/12/2011 14:13

Oh well, now we know
Just as well PCI is the safety net

[wbodger] 20/12/2011 12:28

58° 08.500' N 000° 06.600 is Tudor Rose. What we are waiting for is either the move to P1784 which is East Fyne (PMO with AEY) or P1466 which is Bluebell (PMO with Canadian Overseas Petroleum) both farmouts of PMO which has the Rig contract. I will post the coordinates when I can find them.

A Rig movement from Tudor Rose would be what might suggest an imminent RNS. Don't spend too much time on Fishsafe, use the spot booking sites to see when someone is booking tugs. Not yet, and often Encore put out the RNS promptly anyway.

Fishsafe is always a bit late on Rig Movements. Sedco 704 is being reported as a Rig Movement because it was previously drilling Athena for IAE. That's all. Back to sleep.

[idleduck] 20/12/2011 10:03

well if the rig has moved then there bloody well should be an initial statement on results from TR's operator/other stakeholders, or are they going "tight hole"
maybe a call to EO is required!

[louke] 20/12/2011 09:47

The rig has moved! Good news or not?

From Fishsafe:
14 December 2011

Please note the following rig positions and recent movements.

Movement Rig Position
XX Sedco 704 58° 08.500' N 000° 06.600' W

[leedskier] 20/12/2011 00:15

Well there are three reasons:

1. It cannot fall below 3% ahead of the take over, so for a fund which has to invest it is safe.

2. Many funds buy/write. i.e. they buy the shares/options and write put options, hedging their position.

3. If by chance the markets rise in January -- a big if -- they get PMO paper.

[guesswhosback] 16/12/2011 19:45

Why would they do that? I cannot see any point other than tracking PMO shares? Maybe it's the only way to buy a large chunk of Premier? Any thoughts?

[leedskier] 16/12/2011 16:10

Morgan Stanley just upped its stake above 5%.

[geordy2] 15/12/2011 11:18

Did anyone go to the AGM yesterday ?

[lanaken] 14/12/2011 14:38

Just wondering what affect spread betters exiting will have here. With the bad weather delaying TR and Fyne news both Encore and PMO could drop, particularly if nervousness over the eurozone continues.

I'd buy PMO on weakness, FWIW.

repo

[vraic] 13/12/2011 18:57

PMO CLOSED AT £3.771 X .2067 = 77.95 PENCE ..EO CLOSED 78 pence almost parity

PMO not seen this level since end July, could it be most EO holders will take
PMO therefore NO capital gains tax to be paid till the PMO are sold and as PMO edges higher there will be less taking the 70pence cash.
PMO will go higher as Broker analysts calculate what a great deal PMO made.
Citicorp 12 month target on PMO £4.75.
The brokers employed as advisors are restricted till the deal is done then
they will produce new reports and targets.
dyor

[mullaned] 13/12/2011 16:05

for myself , I am pretty unhappy with the result , but do not want to take their measly cash offer !
Therefore, is there any realistic alternative to accepting the share PMO shares now , or any foreseeable disadvantages by doing so ?

Mullaned

[cashandcard] 13/12/2011 15:57

Repo,


Some of the companies you mention do look promising. AEY, SLG and IAE would ideal if we are looking at the next 12-24months.

Not sure any of them will offer the same potential EO. offered. Still, PMO should pick-up and move back over £4 soon. With the IEA estimating oil prices to stay above $100/bbl, things acn only get better for PMO holders as production improves and they move towards monetising GCA.

I see both IAE and SLG improving next year as production impact is felt. Cashflow is king and a companies like these are the place to leverage ever-strengthening energy prices.


Cash

[p@] 13/12/2011 08:30

Interesting -Thnx RL.

[roger-lawson] 13/12/2011 08:16

If the vote is so unrepresentative of the wishes of shareholders (because those who understand the issues were unable to vote), then the thing to do is to go to the High Court on the 11th January and raise an objection. Anyone can do this verbally and the judge who has to approve it will consider the matter (or adjourn to consider the objection).

The point of the court hearing when it is a scheme of arrangement is to ensure that the interests of all parties have been properly considered and that the vote is representative. Obviously the more facts you can put before the judge at the time, or in a written submission, the better.

You do not need legal representation or advice to do this. Just turn up!

But anyone with a major financial interest may find it best to take some legal advice first - there are likely to be lawyers from the company in court for this hearing.

[steve73] 13/12/2011 03:08

Thanks for the meeting feedback Mark.

Surprising that there was such a low vote turnout. Going ny the number of recent Shareholder notices, there appeared to be a larger number of shares changing hands that I would have expected to have wanted an input...!

[marben100] 12/12/2011 22:43

Elijah1,

Assuming all goes according to plan (i.e. Court sanction is granted on 11th Jan), 12th Jan 2012 will be the last day of dealings for Encore shares on AiM. Dealing will be suspended from then, with the shares delisting on 17th Jan.

Premier shares will also be credited to CREST accounts on 17th Jan (for those whose shares are held in CREST accounts and have elected to take the share alternative).

Cheers,

Mark

[leedskier] 12/12/2011 21:25

Most useful posts today. Many thanks for the note on the meeting marben.

Given that H1 next year is likely to see recessions across the European landscape and the need for European banks to raise yet more capital, cash will remain very tight and the markets volatile, added to which many analysts are predicting sharp falls in Q1.

Even without a Eurozone country defaulting, it could be another very difficult year.

[rhubarbe] 12/12/2011 20:18

I was waiting for them to backtest 46p after the last Euro scare.

Of course they didn't.

I'm still watching them but everybody I know is screaming GKP... I don't hold..

[rhubarbe] 12/12/2011 20:09

I agree. It's got cash, 10,000bopd to come and a doubler from that in another two years.

Five bagger would do me. ;)