Empire Metals Share Discussion Threads

[eoc74] 26/9/2006 15:00

Just in now, should see a nice increase in the value of investments in these countries.


Bulgaria, Romania get green light for EU membership


The European Commission gave the green light today for Bulgaria and Romania to join the European Union in January 2007 rather than a year later.

"They have made the decision. It is approved," a Commission official said.

The commission's recommendation needs to be approved by EU leaders in October, but this is not considered a hurdle.

[eoc74] 26/9/2006 14:51

European Union to rule in Bulgarian and Romanian EU membership today.

[eoc74] 20/9/2006 08:26

No reason for this drop I suppose. Presumably part of the MM´s modus operandi when liquidity is so low.

[tole] 19/9/2006 08:42

Nice summary from Orchid Developments (OCH) today - primarily Bulgaria based.

"The real estate market in Bulgaria remains buoyant, with several international
property funds investing and acquiring assets in Bulgaria."

"The Directors expect that the market will continue to experience further growth
in the run up to, and following, EU accession, anticipated to occur in January
2007."

"Demand and sale prices are expected to strengthen after the anticipated announcement (expected this autumn) of Bulgaria's accession to the EU in January 2007."

[eoc74] 18/9/2006 14:27

Im thinking about calling this one the tumbleweed share.....I think you and me are the only holders Tole! Lets see what the next update brings.

[tole] 14/9/2006 15:53

Well volume has been better of late since results (though still light)- I expect still trying to clear out the last of the line of stock from the 16th August before we see the next leg up.

Though admittedly EEE is still one not followed by many - and with continuous JV's and purchases like today, imo I am more than happy to buy at this level.

EEE must be sitting below embedded value at the moment and with this only expected to rise with further land development purchases (like todays in Bucharest and a few weeks back in Prague) and with additional JV's in the pipeline - it does make the valuation here look very appealing.

As has been pointed out - mid UK housebuilders trade at some 15% premium to embedded value. The main reason I belive it has a price target here for 163p - putting it at similar value with peers.

Also picked off the last PeelHunt note that they were originally expecting an update from EEE circa Sept/Oct - so could well be further newsflow imminent.

[eoc74] 14/9/2006 14:56

Hasn´t budged the share price. Thought we would have seen some upside after that buy recommendation 2 weeks ago.

[tole] 14/9/2006 07:43

News Out.

ENGEL EAST EUROPE N.V.

New project of 390 residential units in Bucharest, Romania


Engel East Europe N.V. ("Engel East Europe" or "the Company"), the AIM-listed
Central and Eastern European ("CEE") residential property developer (EEE:LN), is
pleased to announce that it has signed an agreement for the purchase of land for
a new development project of approximately 390 residential units in Bucharest,
Romania. The Company estimates that projected sales of this project will total
approximately Euro46 million.

The Company intends to develop a residential project of approximately 35,000sqm
on the acquired plots with a total land area of 17,700sqm. The project is in a
prime location, within the high-quality Sisest neighbourhood.

The total purchase price of the land is approximately Euro4.4 million. Of this,
approximately 10% was paid upon signing the agreement, an additional 10% will be
paid upon satisfactory completion of the due diligence process and the remaining
80% will be paid upon fulfillment of several conditions by the seller.

Engel East Europe is in continual negotiation for the purchase of land for the
development of additional projects throughout the CEE Region.

Jacob Engel, founder and Executive Chairman, said:

"This is Engel's fourth project in Romania, following two recent MOU
announcements and the Pipera Project announced a month ago. Romania is a market
which we have always forecast as one of the most promising areas for residential
development and therefore, as part of our main focus, we are further expanding
our presence there.

This newest acquisition complements our vision of further expanding our
activities in both existing and new markets bringing our total number of new
projects announced since IPO to ten with combined projected sales of
approximately Euro500 million, while taking full advantage of the considerable
growth opportunities for residential property development in the CEE region,"

[tole] 08/9/2006 09:32

New players lured by Czech land
By: Martina Marečková, 04. 09. 2006


Netherlands-based residential property developer Engel East Europe announced last week it purchased land in Prague and plans to develop some 100 luxury apartments on 9,000 square meters on the bank of the Vltava River, close to the city center.

Engel East Europe paid about € 4.6 million (Kč 129.8 million) for the plot. The developer expects sales on the project to reach E 22 million. Before the project proceeds, the developer must apply for a planning permit, the company noted in a statement.

Jacob Engel, company founder and executive chairman, said that in his opinion the company managed to obtain the rights for this project thanks to its "wide network of sources" and its "involvement in Prague's residential property market." The company's strategy remains geared toward further expansion in the Czech capital and seizing new opportunities for residential property development throughout Central and Eastern Europe. Engel also said that the company's strategy is encouraged by "the steady growth" of the Czech market.

Engel East Europe operates across the CEE in countries including Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Serbia. Its shares have been traded on the London Stock Exchange since the end of last year. In another deal this August, Engel East Europe purchased part of a construction terrain in the Black Sea resort town of Constanta, Romania, where the company plans to build a residential complex, which it expects will generate sales of some € 80 million.

With steady growth of the market, more real estate consultancies are considering the idea of setting up a residential department in the Czech Republic. Cushman & Wakefield is in the coming weeks to open a residential department. Mark Batt will head up the Czech and Slovak republics' operations for the company.

Currently, among the international consultancy firms in the Czech capital, only King Sturge operates a residential department, which it established one year ago. It now has six employees, and more staff will be hired this year, according to its representatives. CB Richard Ellis doesn't plan to set up a residential department in the near future in Prague, although the company opened a residential department in Poland this June.

[tole] 06/9/2006 13:47

Not just looking at forecast PE as also more worthwhile looking at embedded asset value.
EEE still has a significant amout of cash (circa Euro14m) and we should see significant additional purchases in the near future.

Noticed a nice article the other week in SharesMag titled 'Estate of the Nations' which focused on the bright propsects overseas - where Engel East gets a nice mention.

[eoc74] 05/9/2006 12:07

Cheers Tole! I was trying to come up with a price target myself the other day and looked across the sector. Really not easy to find out what kind of PE we can expect in the future. Youre going with 12 yourself? Some of the growth companies out there are up in the late 20s and 30s. I wonder if we could dare to aim that high. Ill be happy with 12 though for now! I suspect people may be lazy to invest in property stocks right now with the various interest rate increases. I dont think we will see much movement in this one until it is tipped as you say. Although I think it got a mention on Thisismoney last week. What we need is for IC and Shares to flog it.

[tole] 05/9/2006 10:24

Welcome aboard EOC74 - see you have a similar view on where the share price will be heading as myself :)

Still undiscovered by the masses this one - and still think a tip in one of the main publications could well be in the offing following that nice BUY article in Growth Company Investor a few weeks back.

Hi Pinphot - strange that the Buy showed as a sell - especially as it was above mid price. Looks okay in advfn trades summary - so maybe just a one off glitch.
Been all buys since results imho.

[eoc74] 04/9/2006 13:20

Right, Im now on the bandwaggon here. Im expecting to see a nice increase. With these kind of profits, we should see a significant increase in the share price IMHO.

[tole] 04/9/2006 09:07

Sorry - will edit the post - have omitted that figures are in euro's.
So figures still stand.

[eoc74] 04/9/2006 09:05

Sorry, I might be wrong here but should the PER be closer to 6? Open to correction here but 122/19.93 = 6? Or have I got P/E and PER mixed up?

[tole] 04/9/2006 08:54

Okay well received the revised forecasts earlier so here we go -

Figures in Euros.

Dec06E
Sales - 41.00
PBT adj - 19.00
EPS adj - 19.93
PER - 8.9x

DEC07E
Sales - 105.00
PBT adj - 25.00
EPS adj - 21.17
PER - 8.4x

Share Price 122p
Target Price 163p

[tole] 03/9/2006 12:30

Thought there looked likely to be a bit of stock to clear at current levels which is holding back the current price - however there was noted as you say a slight element over a couple of 2006 developments - which all looks now to be cleared yet will now roll into 2007. Reckon late 2006 will see a much higher visability of build progress.

A few points in reference out of the Peel Hunt note.
"Unfortunately, the element of profits coming from projected 2006 developments is partly delayed, NOT by net slow sales rates but from delay in building – predominantly due to delays in building regulations – now resolved"

"Delay in some sites due to build delays. We emphasise we are upgrading our 2007E development turnover."

"EEE missed 2006 building schedules by a number of months and so pushed a high % of 2006 completions into 2007"

"This is a young company 2 major joint ventures signed, bringing profit and cash thereby hastening EEE future growth EEE still €14m cash positive despite buying several '000s plots. More about to be signed"

Still at this price looks a steal imo.

[eoc74] 02/9/2006 20:46

Does anybody know why the H1 2006 results didnt budge the share price? Are there concers over planning permissions on some developments?

[eoc74] 02/9/2006 19:16

Im thinking about getting in on this one. It just sounds too good to be true. Ive been checking the charts but the volume is too small to draw many conclusions.

[tole] 01/9/2006 11:23

Also valuation target by Peel Hunt back in July when the last note was published - put a price target of 148p

Add to that the subsequent substantial upgrade in forecasts on results - then they must be looking at something well in advance of that figure.

[tole] 31/8/2006 15:58

Problem is it only takes a brief write up in one the tipsheet rags like IC or Shares to draw the attention - with results only a week or so old - reckon one of these lot will pick up on this one sooner rather than later - if not only to drive home the point of the 20%+ forecast upgrades by KBC Peel Hunt.

Share price still some 25% off its highs. Though agree with what you say needs something to draw the attention this way, though I doubt it wont be too long until we are tapping on the door of the 150/160's

[wilco99] 31/8/2006 15:21

imho these are a steal, not buying in yet as its still somewhat of a hidden gem and cant see the share price moving much in the next couple of weeks but i definitely will be purchasing in the future.

[tole] 31/8/2006 14:31

Reckon these are being held back somewhat from that line of stock placed pre-results on 16th August - reckon when that clears these will start to move north.

Somewhat hides the focus of the recent excellent results - and as mentioned in the outlook statement

"EEE is strongly placed. Sales prices in many of the markets in which Engel operates have increased recently and the units sales-rate in the majority of the projects in Eastern Europe is in line with our expectations"

All buys so far since results date - circa 450k volume.

[tole] 31/8/2006 10:32

Would appreciate if anyone is able to post the revsied estimates once they've been released - notice they havent been updated yet.

From the GCI recommendation -

"Previous earnings forecasts put the shares on a forward p/e of 11.1, but KBC has upgraded its pre-tax profit forecasts 21% to €19m for the full year. When earnings numbers are clarified the shares are likely to be on a p/e under 10. Buy."

Would have though Peel Hunt will be getting ready to release a revised note some time soon - though they did state in their July note (pre-results) that they expect a confirmation update from EEE on growth/trading around septemebr/october - so perhaps tehy will wait until then.

Difficult to work out the PER being denominated in Euros - though as suggested should be circa PE 9.5 in my book (looking at eps of circa 13p) And should well see upgrades to 2007E too.