Geko For someone such as myself, who at a very late stage of life is just beginning to learn about trading and the AIM market, I find your posts informative and reassuring. Thank you. |
Just to add minnows are particularly difficult to call but they do sometimes chart reliably, GGP did for example in its early days. Over the last year EEE laboured after positive signals and I think a lot of people looking at the chart thought that odd. One thing uncovered were quite substantial short positions (I think Manlord saw them I may be wrong) and perhaps there was a degree of orchestration there. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but it did look odd. |
Agree Pangrati. It's a simple example but one that demonstrates why it's useful to keep one eye on technicals. Although I hold EEE with a belief in the potential fundamentals of the company I tend to be reassured if, for example, I see a retracement within an upward trend on light volume. If I saw a break of a formation like an H and S on high volume I'd want to know why. The chart tends to reflect everything that's in the market rather than just the things one knows about, or thinks one knows about! Nothing is a perfect science in this game. |
It is positive that the slight retracement in the EEE share price from a short term O/B position is on [relatively] low volume. |
And I’m not saying I was posting to you at the time I just recall commenting on it. |
Manlord, sorry posts crossed again! |
GTA, I think you remember correctly and I’m pretty sure I posted at the time that Struthers was taking shares in lieu of salary in reply to someone who thought MS was overpaid. At the time I thought it was decent and a positive when things were less so. |
Good man GTA. I remember Mike getting quite irritated at my suggestion of buying shares in the company because IIRC, he told me he hadn't been taking a salary for quite some time and made sure to point it out to me when I said they should be buying. Well researched anyway. ML |
So, the name missing from the options that were about to expire on the 31st of Jan 2025? (As a footnote in the RNS re the appointment of Phil Brumit the other day....)
Yup....Mike Struthers.
Amounts awarded? 3,850,000 at 4p, and the same again at 5.5p. A cool 7.7 Million on the day he Stepped down. (In lieu of some salary due to company savings in the months earlier? Or do I misremember those dark days perhaps?)
The board awarded itself; Kuenzel, Damouni, O'brien and Struthers a total of 20M Shares at 4 and 5.5p to expire 31st Jan 2025. They anounced it on the same day Struthers stepped down with immediate effect (01Feb 2021) All options just got extended to 2028, except Struthers. (as he's no longer involved?)
Let's see if he choses to hang on to them.
There is also 1M (500K+500K) shares allocated to an unnamed "Consultant", presumably someone at Century? (Or Nomad/Broker?)
Options RNS from 1st Feb 2021;
Board changes from 1st Feb 2021:
GL, GTA. |
I was tracking back but couldn't find any others at 4p & 5.5p? Anyone see a previous RNS confirming but you might be right GTA.ML |
I think the brokers would find it easy to place the 7.7m shares if they came onto the market. |
From the interim results:
"The total number of options outstanding at 30 June
2024 is 72,900,000."
Yesterdays RNS only highlighted an extension to 3 directors options to 2028... All other options remain.
This 3,850,000 at 4p and 3,850,000 at 5.5p could be expiring on the 31st (not extended?) or belong to others? (didn't SB have a bunch at 4 and 5.5p?). Hard to tell... 72.9M total outstanding options is a sizeable chunk...
GL, GTA. |
Having looked at the options holders, afaic there were only three people who had options at a price of 4p & 5p (correct me if I'm wrong). That's Neil O'Brien, Peter Damouni, and Greg Kunzel. The fact that each option was exercised with over 3,850,000 shares means that at least two directors exercised at 4p and at least two directors exercised at 5.5p.Confidence indeed seeing as they were recently extended out to Jan 2028. ML |
Manlord , I always and only invest based on fundamentals . I use charts as an assist for timing . Not always right and agree sudden announcements can over ride short term but they have helped me do OK on balance , over the years
Geko , you arer a peacemaker . Blessed are the peacemakers |
RNS out. ML |
Fully agreed Geko! ML |
I might appear to know a little bit but remember what our dear friend Confucius said:"He who knows all the answers has not been asked all the questions" I'm learning every day on the markets, nothing remains the same so all info greatly appreciated. ML |
Manlord, Posts crossed! |
 Cevodniya/Manlord/Juju
I've donned my tin hat but I give my support to Juju on this one! I really think it should be a case of live and let live. I've been here much longer than most and also have a substantial holding that is for the long term, (with the caveat that I reserve the right to change my mind at any time should circumstances change!) but I also follow charts. As for Warren Buffet it's well known that he invests almost exclusively according to fundamentals so charts will always be secondary for him. However amongst his managers I'll bet there are many that do keep an eye on charts. Even if they don't I know a few traders who trade almost exclusively using charts and they win more than they lose. That said even those guys will pull out if an event such as the twin towers get hit.
I'd add that charting signals have saved me a few times on stocks that I was convinced by. I also got very badly burnt once because I ignored what the chart was indicating. They are useful because they are entirely without sentiment or favour and sometimes if you see something you really don't like, or do like, they can make one go back and examine the fundamentals of the company. Anything that continues to make one vigilant and objective is good in this game imo. That's one reason I don't like censorship unless someone's really ruining the thread. And there have been some of those in this stock!
Anyway I really don't see the harm in people posting their charting views particularly if they are concise. I understand some think it's rubbish but I don't see that as cause to rubbish the poster. Each to their own, my vote is for tolerance! |
 Juju, I'm certainly interested in charts but just not overly dependent when looking at AIM companies.TA can be a useful tool across all markets, however, there are significant differences in their reliability & application depending on the type of market (AIM Vs FTSE etc.) AIM stocks are typically more volatile and less liquid than larger stocks on markets like the FTSE / S&P. Price movements can be sharper and less predictable, being influenced by lower trading volumes and fewer buyers. Traditional chart patterns and indicators often give more false signals in these markets due to the erratic price movements. The reduced liquidity can also create massive price gaps and huge spikes that are not reflective of broader market sentiment.AIM also attracts retail traders and speculators (gamblers) who may act more emotionally and erratically compared to institutional investors. Emotional trading creates irregular price patterns that do not adhere to the standard rules of technical analysis, again making charting less reliable on AIM.AIM companies are smaller, early-stage & less established, with performance heavily dependent on news events, announcements, or single projects (Pitfield an example). This can lead to sudden, unpredictable price movements. News and fundamentals (NED Appointment) can override chart signals entirely, making it extremely risky to rely solely on charts for decision-making.As with many AIM stocks, they have limited trading history, which reduces the effectiveness of technical analysis tools that depend on extensive historical data, such as moving averages or trendlines. This lack of data can make it difficult to identify reliable support and resistance levels or long-term trends.And let's not forget the most important part of the AIM market, it is far more susceptible to price manipulation (e.g., pump and dump) due to lower regulatory scrutiny and liquidity. Manipulative actions riddled across AIM have distorted price charts and created endless misleading signals to buy or sell. In volatile and illiquid markets (AIM), it's debatable but I think the focus should be on shorter time frames and simple indicators like volume, RSI, or moving averages. Whilst far from my primary driver, TA has its benefits and the more data available, the better decisions made.It's still advisable to use technical analysis alongside fundamental analysis to understand the broader context of the company but like always, it's so important to pay attention to the key developments via RNS. TA certainly has limitations and ideally should not be solely relied upon for trading decisions, especially on AIM, and likewise relying on fundamentals alone without any charting data has its risks.A more cautious and diversified approach is recommended, combining both technical and fundamental insights. That way, everyone is happy. |
Juju44, an unbelievably pathetic response.
You technical chartest type analysts post simple 1 liners.
Oversold, underdold, overbought, underbought.
No explanation, just a statement.
If your technical analysis was so accurate, why doesn't Buffett, Smith etc follow your methods? |
If we had MACD and RSI charts in the header, they would make it fairly clear what is overbought and oversold as many people use it to govern/time their buys and sells. Obviously it's not exact science but they can be useful together with SMAs/EMAs or whatever people are into. |
I look at the charts and the indicators which are currently moving towards more extreme positions . It all goes in cycles so correction likely which will lead to an oversold condition which provides buying opportunity . Manlord I thought you would know |
Now there's the Juju we all know & love :-)Some people here (me included) would like to know what these statements mean and what to look out for. How do you know it's overbought? Can you tell by how much? Is there something to look out for? It would help all of us have a better understanding if there was reasoning and an explanation of these statements. ML |
Not even slightly bothered |
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