Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[marvelman] 21/7/2020 13:44

Hastings...aprreciated

[malcolmmm] 21/7/2020 00:18

SNG up a little today. 420%

[hastings] 20/7/2020 18:24

Pencilled in for a catch up with the CEO later in the week and will post my write up for interest.

[epicsurf] 19/7/2020 15:07

Thanks for the replies much appreciated
:)

[wan] 19/7/2020 14:49

Epicsurf...From what I can tell, the majority of the $14m is for orders in the US for the core reagent in PrimeStore MTM (across two sites), whereas the link Hastings highlighted is for the actual whole collection device, which EKF are currently manufacturing in Wales for UK supply, with two further lines for the European supply coming on stream in Germany by the end of this month.

I have noted that EKF PrimeStore MTM launch marketing is appearing on quite a number of 'European' medical and media channels. Highlighting EKF are indeed near/ready to commence European supply.

If European demand is anywhere near where I think it might be, then the new lines in Germany will also be 'very' busy! European demand/orders will of course be on top of what the recent Trading Updates have predominantly indicated.

Going forwards, and given the attributes of PrimeStore MTM, I am also interested to see if the collection device might be paired or have preference with certain diagnostic developers/tests.

[hastings] 19/7/2020 09:09

Good read here from Thursday that I don't think has been posted here yet, apologies if I'm wrong.Https://www.tomorrowslaboratories.com/

[epicsurf] 18/7/2020 20:17

Hi Wan, Very informative read, i have been building a position here for the last couple of weeks, in regards to the orders for PrimeStore MTM sample collection devices of $14.1 million for the next 3 months, would you or anybody
Have a idea how many actual kits this would equate to? Many thanks

[wan] 18/7/2020 15:35

Apologies in advance for a longer post than usual.

I have been interested in the development of rapid saliva based COVID-19 tests, which I think have the potential to make for an even larger PrimeStore MTM opportunity. I am going to start by partially repeating some of what I have already stated.

Currently, EKF do not market an actual COVID-19 test. One of my main thrusts and the point also made by Victoria Stevens from the Lion Trust (post 171), is that some tests that are in development will never make it to market, or some tests already on the market that prove to be inaccurate will ultimately fail to gain a decent market share(some have already received FDA warnings). Whereas EKF's COVID offering targets safe sample collection and transport and is thus not so dependant upon the success of a particular test.

The lions share of FDA authorised tests are molecular (PCR) tests, most of which require sample collection via a transport media, such as PrimeStore MTM provided by EKF.

The PrimeStore MTM is applicable to a good percentage of the PCR testing market and not overly reliant on a specific PCR test. But in any regard, I don't believe the authorities will want to be overly reliant on any one particular type of test. And the multiple attributes of PrimeStore MTM gives us good exposure to the current COVID-19 testing market, and probably not (unfortunately) just for the current pandemic! And as we approach the flu season, to this we can now add tests that are capable of multiple testing/differentiating between flu and COVID-19 and for which primeStore MTM is particularly suitable.

However, PrimeStore MTM may give EKF exposure to even more testing, and potentially on an even greater scale than the current PCR testing and across a wider range of settings!

An important aspect in the the following article is that the test is based on the use of a saliva sample, which compared to samples extracted via nasal and throat swabs, is far more comfortable, and potentially removes the swab element which has suffered from supply constraints. The trial is for a new test based on a rapid method, known as RT-Lamp, and takes around 20 minutes, compared to several hours for PCR testing.

17 July 2020
Coronavirus: Would you spit in a tube every week to end the pandemic?



EKF is not mentioned in the above article which is based on UK research and a ongoing live public-use trial. However, I can confirm that PrimeStore MTM has already been used in the US for a saliva based, highly sensitive RT-LAMP assay that provides results in as little as 30 minutes. But my main thrust is that PrimeStore MTM can also be used for the collection of saliva samples (swab or pure saliva).

In the US saliva based test, a Quest VCM (viral collection media) required a inactivation protocol (amongst other things, heating to 95 degrees). However, this inactivation process was not required when using PrimeStore MTM, as well as the important fact that the PrimeStore MTM sample is inactivated and safe from the point of collection.

This US development is compatible with current collection methods (not just PrimeStore MTM) in which swabs are placed into a large volume of collection media, as well samples of straight saliva. This inactivation (not required for PrimeStore MTM) and purification scheme and RT-LAMP assay are simple and fast, relatively inexpensive, and do not rely on specialised equipment thereby enabling its use in a wider range of settings. Tests of these protocols in clinical settings are underway, with preliminary results looking promising.

The following recent UK.GOV press release is also encouraging -

Press release
New saliva test for coronavirus piloted in Southampton

In addition to the new application of using saliva from Optigene being piloted in Southampton, we are currently exploring the potential of other no-swab saliva-based coronavirus tests with companies, including Chronomics, Avacta, MAP Science and Oxford Nanoimaging (ONI). We are also working with a number of suppliers, including DNA Genotek, International Scientific Supplies Ltd, Isohelix and other leading manufacturers, to develop bespoke saliva collection kits and scale up manufacturing for products that can be used with existing PCR tests.


A recent Longhorn PrimeStore MTM development that caught my attention was for new and additional wide mouth tubes that provide users with more options. And this appears to fit well with the developments highlighted above.

In my opinion only, these developments in conjunction with other attributes of PrimeStore MTM, indicate that there could be, at the very least, a significant increase in the size of the addressable market for PrimeStore MTM.

[malcolmmm] 18/7/2020 15:21

Yes. I also hold ORPH which is also recommended on techinvest

[hastings] 18/7/2020 07:37

Entered here yesterday after taking a long look. Very pleased to find rivaldo is already present.

[wan] 17/7/2020 16:26

Welcome Rivaldo! It would be interesting to learn what any other analysts are forecasting.

[wan] 17/7/2020 08:08

A sobering study published yesterday in The Lancet Public Health journal highlights the importance of effective testing and tracing

Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study
Prof Mirjam E Kretzschmar, PhD
Ganna Rozhnova, PhD
Martin C J Bootsma, PhD
Michiel van Boven, PhD
Prof Janneke H H M van de Wijgert, PhD
Prof Marc J M Bonten, MD

Open Access
Published:July 16, 2020

Summary
Background
In countries with declining numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19, lockdown measures are gradually being lifted. However, even if most physical distancing measures are continued, other public health measures will be needed to control the epidemic. Contact tracing via conventional methods or mobile app technology is central to control strategies during de-escalation of physical distancing. We aimed to identify key factors for a contact tracing strategy to be successful.

Interpretation
In our model, minimising testing delay had the largest impact on reducing onward transmissions. Optimising testing and tracing coverage and minimising tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology, further enhanced contact tracing effectiveness, with the potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions. Access to testing should therefore be optimised, and mobile app technology might reduce delays in the contact tracing process and optimise contact tracing coverage.

[rivaldo] 17/7/2020 07:48

Dibs61, N+1 Singer have increased (conservatively) to 2.9p EPS for this year, but who else covers EKF - perhaps I could find out their forecasts?

I've had a small holding here for a while, but have now topped up, taking advantage of this welcome hiatus apparently caused by a misguided seller :o))

I note RENX's news this morning:

[dibs61] 17/7/2020 07:47

wan - sooner or later the penny will drop. For sure it hasn’t yet but it will!

[wan] 17/7/2020 07:41

Dibs...Yes and if correct representing growth of 275% and potentially making the PEG even lower.

Testing is indeed going to be crucial, so as I have repeated several times, expect more testing.....a lot more testing!

[dibs61] 17/7/2020 07:34

If that EPS figure proves correct then that puts EKF on a current year PE ratio of 14.6. I would suggest that is quite cheap. If you add in the news that the UK government is expanding testing capacity to 500k tests per day by October then this looks even cheaper.

[wan] 17/7/2020 07:31

Indicative? -

Abbott tops Q2 estimates aided by 233.6% jump in molecular diagnostics

PUBLISHED
July 16, 2020

Abbott's diagnostics sales grew 7% in the second quarter on an organic basis.

"Similar to what we saw in medical device procedures, testing volumes in our underlying diagnostics business, which excludes COVID-19 tests, rebounded to approximately 90% of pre-COVID levels by the end of the second quarter," Ford said.

When it comes to COVID-19 tests, molecular diagnostics were up 241% and rapid diagnostics increased 11%, respectively. Strong demand for Abbott's lab-based tests for the coronavirus resulted in diagnostics sales of $283 million in the quarter, while Abbott's point-of-care COVID-19 molecular test on its ID NOW platform helped drive rapid diagnostics sales of $180 million in the quarter.

"We think COVID testing will stick around," commented Ford.

Abbott's consumer-facing businesses, such as diabetes care, nutrition, and established pharmaceuticals, have continued to be "resilient" amid the pandemic collectively growing 9% in the first half of the year, according to Ford.

Abbott's financial health remains strong. The company ended the second quarter with about $5 billion in cash and short-term investments, an increase of more than $1 billion compared to the end of the first quarter.

Full story -

[wan] 17/7/2020 07:24

Thanks Firtashia....That is very good growth over the FY19 eps!

[firtashia] 17/7/2020 06:30

FY20 forward EPS estimates nudged up to 3.10p, according to Stockopedia.

[dibs61] 16/7/2020 19:45

Yes that’s very true!

[faz] 16/7/2020 15:31

someone whose stress threshold cant take the last three months; you need to be a stoic to be in equities!

[dibs61] 16/7/2020 15:09

faz - it’s a thought.... I checked and no they’re not there.

Just baffled by this. Not so much the lack of buying, though there have been a few delayed buy trades. It’s the selling based against the fundamentals. It has to be a forced seller surely.

[faz] 16/7/2020 14:06

Just a thought- does anyone know if EKF was in one of Woodfords funds? Acacia bought a job lot earlier in the year for pennies and have been selling off, eg Open Orphan, Synairgen. The sales are impacting their share prices.

[wan] 16/7/2020 11:32

Dibs...It's been 'odd' for quite some time, with lot's of single or a ridiculous handful of shares (e.g. 3) being bid/offered etc, which implies that there is some sort of background strategy taking place, but that's just a guess!

[dibs61] 16/7/2020 11:14

I’m finding the share price movements - quoted bid and offer against the trades printed - pretty odd tbh. It’s on SETS but most trades are ordinary. Is the share price action normally like this? Just a strange reaction against what was an outstanding update.