Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 10/5/2021 11:40

Since Chris Mills sold a huge chunk at 80 this share is drifting South. One gets to be a bit skeptic when a company director sells at the very top. What do you think?

[davr0s] 10/5/2021 09:50

"Plunging" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here

[tongosti] 10/5/2021 09:16

Plunging to fresh lows it seems despite the daily ramping efforts of some. Is mr market up to something or he doesn't get it like a few enlightened ones parading this board do? Lol. Ps. How are those fib levels coming along?

[wan] 10/5/2021 07:40

It was interesting that the Times article highlighted that EKF is launching a new product that can test rapidly for sepsis (which was indicated during the Presentation meeting), and clearly a rapid point of care test would be very useful and well received is this regard.

That exciting product development and imminent launch aside, I am intrigued by the suggestion that it is expected that EKF will soon launch a plan to double core earnings over the next three to four years. And in this regard, I still think that the manufacture of sample/specimen collection media will become part of EKF's core products (including country preparedness). And additionally, with the pandemic having supercharged the market for at-home testing for range of health conditions (for tests other than just COVID-19), and the CEO commenting that EKF skill sets could see them become one of the major manufacturers of tests kits, these too could form core products (given current test kit manufacturing has already been established), and which will be delivered (and possibly collected) by certain expert logistical companies.

Staying with product development etc.

Recall that EKF stated the following in their 14 September 2020 Presentation -

"ATM product aimed at low cost markets expected Q4"

And the following in their 30 March 2021 Presentation -

"PBS solution introduced into market Q4 2020 as a low cost alternative to MTM"

Hmmm, so what happened to PrimeStore ATM? My Presentation question regarding ATM remained unanswered, so was there a change in strategy yet to be revealed perhaps? At this stage we can only guess!

However, given what Longhorn had to say about the enabling attributes of ATM, perhaps there was indeed a change in strategy. Anyway, I am keeping in mind that interview back in September last year, where Longhorns President, Jeff Fischer, told an interviewer that they were working with one of the largest diagnostic companies in the world to add a Longhorn product to their point of care test that differentiates between COVID-19 and flu (not sure that that reference was related to ATM though).

So, I am not sure investors should discount PBS as the replacement for ATM or any related products/ingredients, perhaps especially given that ATM has been validated for influenza qPCR (quantitative polymerase chain reaction) and antigen testing -



Thus, and in any regard, I look forward to the launch/announcement of EKF's development plan providing further clarity etc.

[wan] 09/5/2021 13:10

Based on the most recent trading update & expansion of supply agreement, which I believe to be conservative, what are we, or indeed the Sunday Times journalist, missing from what we have been guided? -

EKF Diagnostics Holdings PLC Trading update & Expansion of supply agreement
30/03/2021

Further to the announcement on 12 January 2021 , trading in the first quarter was materially ahead of management expectations. With subsequent orders under this expanded global contract expected to make a considerable contribution throughout the current financial year and beyond, the Board is confident that trading for the year ending 31 December 2021 will be significantly ahead of already upgraded management expectations.

Julian Baines, CEO of EKF, said: "We are delighted to continue our relationship with our partner in the private sector and support their global staff testing initiative with the expansion of our supply agreement for collection kits. The contract has gone from covering the UK to supporting our partner's global staff testing programme. We expect this partnership to contribute materially to our 2021 performance and are confident in delivering results significantly ahead of current management forecasts which were most recently upgraded in January this year."
Full release -


Subsequently N-1 Singer analyst Chris Glasper upgraded his forecast for December 2021 revenues to £64 million and adjusted pre-tax profit to £15.5 million.

From the recent Presentation -

2021 Outlook
The Board is confident that trading for the year ending 31 December 2021 will be significantly ahead of already upgraded management expectations throughout 2021

• 30 March 2021 announced the signing of a multi-million dollar global supply contract with a private sector partner
• Core business experiencing a strong recovery, particularly in the US
McKesson OEM of DiaSpect Tm expected to return to pre-pandemic sales expectations
• Customer base intact but was impacted by closure of physicians’ offices to medical sales representatives throughout 2020
• Placement of analysers into setting expected to return to 2020 levels (c. 100 per month) during 2021
Continued demand for PrimeStore MTM tubes and bulk medium
• £2.49m of orders to Ireland in Q1 (versus £5.2m in 2020)
• £3m+ of orders in-house from Concepta, Oncologica and PHE Manchester
Orders of PBS (phosphate-buffered saline) to exceed £2.4m in Q1
• Two-year global supply contract with a major international brand customer for regular staff testing and home-use
• Manufactured at sites in the US, UK and Germany
Trellus Health flotation expected in H1 2021 to generate further value for holders



Whilst I am sure there will be a combination of both headwinds and tailwinds, EKF's management were confident enough to upgrade the whole year (and adding materially beyond 2021). Not to mention that parts of the globe, where I assume said private sector partner also has staff, are not as fortunate as we are in terms of vaccine availability/roll-outs and low infection rates, hence the likes of Amazon is expanding their testing sites 'globally' -

Amazon’s COVID-19 testing lab processes more than 1 million tests for front-line employees
February 11, 2021

“Our team came together with a mission to rapidly build an in-house COVID-19 testing lab because we knew it was a final step, on top of all our onsite COVID-19 precautions, to ensure the health and safety of our front-line employees,” said Cem Sibay, Vice President, Amazon. “We built this lab to scale so that we can offer regular testing to all Amazon front-line employees. Over 500,000 employees have already been voluntarily tested and we are continuing to expand to over a thousand COVID-19 testing sites globally.”


I would also suggest that testing will remain a critical factor/requirement for the likes of Amazon as we enter the flu seasons (is it flu or COVID?).

And beyond COVID-19 (hopefully and eventually) Amazon's testing infrastructure and capabilities will no doubt be put to further good use.

[melody9999] 09/5/2021 09:54

Think I'll wait for the good news to continue then! Though if Mills has reduced his holding from 29.7% to 29% of the company (ie some 2.35% of his holding), maybe I should act proportionately and sell a handful of shares!

At 68 years you cannot begrudge Mills cashing in some chips. Though given the share price reaction, feel he would be better off with a placing if he wanted to offload a larger wedge. There would be plenty of takers.

[mysteronz] 09/5/2021 08:33

Looking at her linkedin, a journalist and no stock market qualifications or experience.

Some decent research but none more than a 10 minute perusal on this board would give you.

Complete lack of recognition of continual expectation upgrades and reference to increased core work coming through as a lever again CV19 uptick

[travestor] 09/5/2021 04:08

Started so well, heyho i was toying with a top up, might just get a bargain now:

Apply the sniff test to this Covid winner
Sabah Meddings
Sunday May 09 2021, 12.01am BST, The Sunday Times
It has 1.3 million staff, warehouses worldwide and a market value of $1.7 trillion. Can you name this company?

You will not find the answer in March’s stock exchange announcement from EKF Diagnostics, in which it boasted about a multimillion-dollar contract with a mystery global partner in the private sector, sending its share price over 5 per cent.

However, City speculation suggests that the AIM-listed EKF has scored a two-year deal with Amazon. EKF is not at liberty to confirm, but this deal is expected to be worth many millions. Not bad going for a company that was a penny stock five years ago.


EKF, led by chairman Christopher Mills, a small-cap veteran who made his name at JO Hambro in the 1990s, specialises in “point of care” tests where physicians can find out in real time whether patients are suffering from conditions such as anaemia, diabetes or sepsis.

It is also a “Covid stock”. EKF makes sample collection kits that keep the virus “inactivated” (meaning it is no longer able to infect anyone) in the collection tube — avoiding contamination while preserving the crucial RNA macromolecule. EKF supplies these testing kits to Public Health England and the Irish government, along with private customers.

Shares in the company have risen more than 220 per cent since the middle of March last year, closing on Friday at 70.40p and giving EKF a value of £320.3 million.

So far, so good. However, the City was spooked slightly last month when Mills, 68, sold almost four million shares at 80p each, cutting his stake from 29.7 per cent to 29 per cent (he first bought in at 9p). The stock has drifted 13 per cent since then.

Sources suggest that Mills has a long-term plan to diversify his portfolio, and that he is likely to sell more if the good news continues.

Elsewhere, the longevity of EKF’s uplift is in question. Covid-related sales accounted for 40 per cent of last year’s revenues of £65.3m — up 45 per cent — but beyond Covid, sales have fallen short. EKF’s clinical chemistry, diabetes and haematology divisions all declined as patients stayed away from doctors — reducing demand for its screening products.

SPONSORED


EKF has more than £30 million of cash and investments. It is launching a product that can test rapidly for sepsis, which kills 48,000 a year in the UK, and it is expected that it will soon launch a plan to double core earnings over the next three to four years.

The question is whether its share price will get a dose of reality once the demand for testing is over. For now, investors would be wise to follow Mills and take profits.

[mirandaj] 08/5/2021 15:57

Quite a quantity of these being sold now and will increase

[tongosti] 07/5/2021 08:56

It was a rhetorical question darling, you're such an easy target aren't you. (and yes of course you have made tons here :) Lol.

[chris16041] 07/5/2021 07:02

No concerns here Mr Market still a double bagger for me
We are still awaiting your views over at sfor we are all missing your advice on that share
Come on you know you want to
Pip pip old boy

[tongosti] 06/5/2021 14:09

Seriously fellas - anyone up for a short or the spirit is still denying (share price) reality?Chris pal - the bid just hit 68 ...

[jsredbird] 06/5/2021 14:05

How is your trolling going? You spending your days trolling other chat boards? Is this your enjoyment in life, or is the EKF board special for some reason?

[tongosti] 06/5/2021 13:35

How's that Fibonacci coming along?I think fellas you need to focus on share price failing off the 80p highs and reversing. Who wants to play macho with Mr Market?!

[wan] 06/5/2021 10:15

CD...Recall that LumiraDx is to go public in a $5 Billion SPAC deal -

The transaction is currently expected to close late Q2, early Q3 this year, subject to approval by the securityholders of each of CAHC and LumiraDx and satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of both LumiraDx and CA Healthcare Acquisition Corp.

[wan] 06/5/2021 09:54

Direction of travel news/notable Results and commentary -

Ortho Clinical Diagnostics Q1 Revenues Rise 24 Percent on Core Revenue Strength
May 05, 2021

"We started off the year strong with continued momentum in our base business that was supplemented by our COVID-19 testing solutions," Chris Smith, chairman and CEO of Ortho, said in a statement. "Our core revenue excluding our COVID-assay products was up 14 percent, as our commercial excellence programs continue to show strong returns and as many of our geographies are seeing an accelerating recovery from the impact of the global pandemic."

The Clinical Lab business in which Ortho competes has an addressable market of about $26 billion per year, Smith said on the conference call, adding that in 2020, Ortho's clinical chemistry revenues accounted for 62 percent and its immunoassays revenues accounted for 38 percent of its Clinical Labs revenues.

Smith added that Ortho also has a strong focus on selling its integrated clinical chemistry and immunoassay analyzers. The company grew its installed base of those products by 14 percent in Q1. "With our increasing focus on lifetime customer value and expanding our installed base of integrated analyzers, we see strong uptake from labs with the ability to run an expanded menu on our devices," he said.

Additionally, Ortho is evaluating M&A opportunities following its IPO. "We have an increasing balance sheet that provides flexibility," Smith said. "We are targeting high-growth, high-margin products that we can sell through our existing global call points and distributors, including molecular, specialty [immunoassay], and point-of-care diagnostic systems."

Full story -

In 2017 Ortho Clinical Diagnostics and EKF Diagnostic announced a deal to provide patients expanded access to EKF's beta-hydroxybutyrate assay for the diagnosis of ketoacidosis -

“Ortho is committed to delivering a broad menu of assays to our customers in the clinical lab, whether through in house development or collaborations like the one with EKF,” said Ortho’s chief Operating Officer Robert Yates.

The assay is now available for use on Ortho's Vitros 4600 chemistry system and the Vitros 5600 integrated system.

[cambridgedon] 06/5/2021 09:51

Wan,
Thanks for additional info.
Is there any guidance as to the timing of the Nasdaq IPO?
Cheers,
CD

[wan] 06/5/2021 07:59

I forgot to add the following -

According to Longhorn, "An initial EUA using PrimeStore® ATM was filed in early September."

Which again is not an indication that it is being used by Lumira, but it does imply it is being "used" as 'part' of an initial EUA, so perhaps it is more a case of who's EUA includes ATM?

[wan] 06/5/2021 07:54

Cambridgedon...Re Lumira, I omitted another reason for my interest, apart from that already highlighted, was their point of care offering and how the test worked and their PCR offering. What has piqued my interest further in Lumira was their recent revision (March 2021)to the FDA letter and authorized labelling for their PCR test, which included updating the Instructions for Use to include new master mix, salt mix and extraction buffer formulations, which according to my interpretation enables the extraction step to be eliminated -

LumiraDx SARS-CoV-2 RNA STAR Complete entirely removes specimen purification and extraction by combining lysis and amplification in a single step.



There is of course no confirmation that the product/ingredients are related to Longhorn/EKF, but it highlights my previous posts on the importance of the Phosphate Buffered Saline (PBS) product that such tests depend upon, and not just for COVID-19 testing. Watch this space!

[mg1982] 05/5/2021 22:35

Oh here goes our resident Mr Market expert Tong again. The same one who timed SDI poorly and then EKF too.

Give it a rest, you're a proven broken record

[tongosti] 05/5/2021 22:26

You may want to check out the sunspot theory as well - it helps rationalise sideways shares.

[cambridgedon] 05/5/2021 15:07

70 is a Fibonacci retrace level (for those who follow such things.)
CD

[sirshagalot] 05/5/2021 11:20

Could be a point to buy imho @70p

[wan] 05/5/2021 07:46

Edit - correct link added to the above post.

[wan] 05/5/2021 07:44

Notable Results and commentary -

PerkinElmer Q1 Revenues More Than Double on Strong Diagnostics Business
May 04, 2021

NEW YORK – PerkinElmer said after the close of the market on Tuesday that its first quarter revenues more than doubled year over year as revenues from its Diagnostics segment spiked sharply.

On a conference call following the release of the financial results, PerkinElmer CFO Jamey Mock said that COVID-19-related product and service revenues totaled $550 million in Q1 2021 "propelled primarily by our PCR tests and RNA extraction solutions, as well as our turnkey lab-in-lab testing solutions in the state of California and the United Kingdom."

PerkinElmer President and CEO Prahlad Singh said on the call that the firm anticipates surveillance testing for COVID-19 will remain important "for the foreseeable future" with a focus on testing for asymptomatic patients as global economies continue to open.

In other parts of the Diagnostics segment, Mock noted strength in the immunodiagnostics business, as well as applied genomics business, and the reproductive health franchise, which returned to profitability for the first time since Q4 2019.

Full story -