Eidos Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 21/1/2009 13:57

I would presume so

[theband] 21/1/2009 13:27

is this the same as yesterdays

[theband] 21/1/2009 08:30

I havent seen a spread this wide since my
aunty mabel fell asleep in the armchair.

[hyper al] 21/1/2009 08:18

dealy

i see that as positive, they wil be looking at ways to boost their business, they may see Eidos as one of these ways

[theband] 21/1/2009 08:07

in what respect

[dealy] 21/1/2009 07:34

Warner Bros axed 800 jobs - announced last night. Anybody think this could have any bearing on a takeover of Eidos?

[life of crime] 20/1/2009 18:57

I think the share price will drop back to 10p because I can't see a bid succeeding. The share price is too low to generate a decent offer and most shareholders will therefore reject it. I'm sure the loan covenants will be re-negotiated and that will provide some stability.

As for the ninja game, I can only assume (hope) that it is well down the development track and so it is too late to cancel it. Hitman and K&L should be IO's priority and this is a distraction. The sooner it is out of the way, the better.

PS. Trailer for the ninja game at the link. It looks good but I'd rather it was a trailer for HM5 or K&L2:

[dealy] 20/1/2009 14:45

With two potential deep pocketed bidders it is highly unlikely that the share price will stay at 13p for long.

[cocorico2009] 20/1/2009 14:34

FYI

Expanding publishers begin to circle struggling Britsoft firm – with an eye on key development assets, say insiders

A battle between East and West looks set to decide the future of Eidos.

MCV understands that both Warner Bros and Square Enix are ready to mount rival acquisition bids this month for the ailing British publisher.

Although national press reports have fingered EA and Ubisoft as potential buyers, nose-tappers are backing Warner as the victor. It already owns 20 per cent of the Britsoft firm, and would only have to spend around $30m for a controlling interest. A spend of around $80m would give it total control, putting Eidos' current market value at around $120m.

Eidos last month relaxed restrictions on Warner that would otherwise stop it buying more shares.

However, Square is making clear signals of serious interest. Global president Yoichi Wada has already visited Denmark's IO Studio – Eidos' developer of the Hitman franchise – and is set to return to the UK shortly to move the deal forward.

Our source said: "I think Warners will still win, but it's very interesting that Square have expressed this late interest. They are clearly looking for Western talent."

Square Enix could opt to buy single assets – perhaps just IO and the Hitman brand. But shareholders looking to maximise value might prefer an all-or-nothing swoop.

The Tokyo firm has made no secret of its global aspirations. Just last week the company told MCV that this strategy is being driven by a new business development unit established by Western boss John Yamamoto. And whilst it has made significant in-roads with titles like Final Fantasy XII, the firm acknowledges it has few titles with Western appeal.

Eidos, on the other hand, has suffered significantly in the past 12 months, with its rocky year including a management cull, global studio restructuring and financial upheaval – with losses quadrupling and its share price losing over 90 per cent of its value.

Its key Q4 release, Lara Croft Tomb Raider: Underworld, currently nestles at number seven in the GFK- ChartTrack All Formats Top 10.

Eidos products, however, cover a raft of genres with Western appeal. Its slate of studios and IP could well complement Square's activity and plug the gaps in its line-up.


SOURCE :-



??? Any comments on which would be best for Eidos ???

[darrens] 20/1/2009 10:39

dealy, I'm saying that I would be amazed if any bidder would pay a premium to todays share price, i.e. I think Eidos will be very lucky to agree a bid at over 13p/share.

It's not impossible, bid situations are a bit of a lottery, but you don't have to look very hard to see to see why the share price is where it is.

[dealy] 20/1/2009 10:13

Darren

The word "premium" does not mean a price higher than the forced-selling-induced-two-day-all-time-low.

A "premium" is based on a base price that is stable over a certain period of time. 20p for example wouldn't be a premium to the share price of any period in the company's history other than just a few days.

A bidder doesn't come to a company and say: "for the last 2 days I notice your shares has been around 10p. I would like to pay a 30% premium and pay you 13p". The board would immediately put the phone down on such a proposal.

[darrens] 20/1/2009 09:59

dealy, here's another theory for the lack of price movement - nobody believes the value of its assets (financial assets, game assets, management assets) are greater than the current market cap.

The facts are that this company had over £35m in cash a year ago and is now surviving on a loan whose covenants have been broken. That's without any increase in "work in progress" and with the Christmas release of their number 1 franchise.

That is a recurring theme (not generating cash) rather than a blip. There are very few (if any) years that Eidos has actually generated cash.

For the first time I actually think these bid talks will come to something simply because there's no alternative. This company has a tiny (if any) chance of survival and I think the Board know that and realise they have only one course of action if they are to retrieve anything for the shareholders.

The only question is what price can they get for Eidos. That's a bit of a lottery but given they aren't exactly negotiating from a position of strength it would be amazing to see any sort of premium.

[dealy] 20/1/2009 09:49

The more that I think about it I am certain TW are aware of the terms of the bid (either they are the bidder or the board of Eidos has asked them for their opinion on the terms of the potential offer by another party).

That would preclude them from buying a further 10% before January 25th.

[dealy] 20/1/2009 09:38

That's what happens in a bear market. There are numerous reasons for people to sell but few reasons for people to buy.

[togglebrush] 20/1/2009 09:30

Barclays sold 196k as per their RNS (not shown here) yesterday. This would be more than current median daily volume. They have 6.9 million as a holding.

Capitulation, or willing sellers there are many. Willing buyers appear to be few.

[dealy] 20/1/2009 09:01

Toggle

The dollar has risen 40% against the pound since those forecasts were made 12 months ago. Any sales traction in the USA will give the revenues a huge boost when translated into GBP. Same goes for sales to the eurozone in fact.

Regarding lack of price movement - three theories:

a) the market is cynical having seen other bids come to nothing in the past
b) the normal buyers of this stock are inside and can't trade
c) overhang as Toggle mentions is being cleared without the trades hitting the market

[alanrex] 20/1/2009 08:47

toggle.. personally i dont like the fact a takeover approach was announced and yet the share price reaction immediately was not overwhelming and then drifts back...could be nothing or could suggesting something!

just my view..

[togglebrush] 20/1/2009 08:42

A year ago the board of directors changed. Their recent forecast of sales for the current year is £160 to £180 million. In 3 weeks we should receive first half year Interims. But it would appear that sales revenue stream has been restored.


Forecast ____________________Actual____Actual______Actual
Yr 8/9_____in £ millions_____Yr 7/8____Yr 6/7______Yr 5/6

180.00____Revenue____________118.90____144.00______179.10


The share price has been hammered by the current state of the market and the 10% overhang of the company's shares in the market. This was caused by the failure of the Icelandic banks in Mid October and the placing of 43 million of Robert T's backing of his CFD holding on the market. Until this is cleared the share price is unlikely to succeed.

There are multiple video game projects at various states of progress in several studios world wide (see header). Software projects are notoriously difficult to get the timing right. Even Microsoft has well published troubles. But after one year the revenue stream appears to be coming right.

Company is vulnerable to take over because of its size, especially in this growth market sector. Key to the share price remains in that market overhang as the 10% dominates the free floating share market. The suggestion of a take over may help absorb some of the overhang and IF the Interims are positive we may see some share price movement latter in February or March.

[the crypt] 19/1/2009 23:54

sack the useless managers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[darrens] 19/1/2009 23:38

lion, the last Hitman was 2006. I find it incredible that the next one isn't due out (and even this is unconfirmed) until next year.

SCidos 2nd best selling franchise and it seems nonsense that hundreds of millions of pounds of development monies have been spent ahead of a Hitman sequel. Yet another of my hobby-horses about successive SCidos management teams getting the big decisions wrong and the mini-ninjas thing just brought it all back.

[lionheart79] 19/1/2009 21:48

There are a few dev teams at IO and I have a distinct 'feeling' there are sequels in development for both Hitman and K&L, and agree that they should be first priority. Mini Ninjas will of course have been given the green light in far rosier times.