Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[attyg] 20/2/2019 16:57

Agreed investing.

Someone must have placed a buy order of some size seeing how (crazily so many sells on a day of unexpected excellent news) the share price has gone up despite so many sells.

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2019 15:24

AttyG

"What does this all mean to our prospects for 2019. Of course, we may not get any commercial sales of Cedroz this year"

AttyG. It is only February. IF the approvals come though in 120 then we most certainly will get Cedroz sales. In fact, they could take a bit longer and still deliver Cedroz sales in 2019. It is more a question of late H1 2019 or sometime in H2 2019.

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 14:18

IBMA White Paper - IBMA Vision on how to improve regulation in the European Union -
a New EU Regulatory Framework for Bioprotection Agents

[attyg] 20/2/2019 14:11

Also, what about this G3Y?

Perhaps I dozed off, but I can't remember Sean talking about that?
So great spot, wan or whoever it was.
Surely this doesn't just appear without some substance, some expectation that we can get one insecticide being commercialised?
Remember, insecticides are truly big business.
If we can get one insecticide, then I think it not unreasonable to have more than one. Perhaps many more?

Insecticides are used all year round in many parts of the globe.
No worries about seasonality or unusual climatic conditions.

Great things ahead for holders.

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 13:58

Good post AttyG and were into double figures on number of trades.

Boom:)

[attyg] 20/2/2019 13:46

De-risking.

Eden now looks to be a de-risked investment opportunity.

EU approval for cedroz is the most significant event to date.
The ability to achieve commercial sales in the 6 EU territories is only a matter of time, all will be awarded.
Approvals for the other 20 odd countries look to be doubt free now that Eden and Eastman have managed to obtain EU approval.
The markets for Cedroz are significantly larger than for 3AEY, are less prone to climatic conditions and are less seasonally influenced.
Furthermore, we have one strong single partner distributing cedroz, not the variety of companies we have distributing 3AEY under different brand names.

This is a game changer and I only wish I had more hard earned available at the momen, the shares are a steal.

Sean has delivered.
Legacy agreements he inherited with TT and Bayer (who acquired Teva) have proved difficult to be commercialised. These difficulties are clearly not all able to influenced by Eden and perhaps Sean may have chosen a different route and form of agreement were he in place when they were concluded. Anyhow, the issue is, he has delivered, ahead of schedule in my view, on his guidance regarding cedroz.

What does this all mean to our prospects for 2019.
Of course, we may not get any commercial sales of cedroz this year. If that were to be the case, then I am sure it would not have been due to lack of effort on the part of Eastman.
My track record on predicting Eden's financial results has been wrong, so please have that in mind.
My sense is that Eden will hard pressed not to make at least £2m profit this year.
So, I remain of the view that Eden's share price will be close to the 50p mark put forward by investingisatrickygame, by mid Jan 2020 (after the year end trading update).
Could be more.

Of course we have so many stale bulls who will sell off into any rise which will slow and lessen the steepness of the share price incline, but this company is now de-risked and will be attractive to the professional investors as opposed to the likes of us. They will pick up shares on the cheap as the disillusioned PIs are pleased to get out at break even.

I remain of the view this will be a life changing investment for me and am reassured that it will happen soon thanks to today's RNS.

Next, let's have some sustaine products up for sale - in a few years I am expecting more than twenty! Ramp intended.

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2019 11:41

Re approvals, see wan's post on the other thread. I believe it is about 2-4 months.

[weyweyumfozo] 20/2/2019 11:26

After Zonal Approval of 3AEY was granted on 26 May 2015, countries took the following times to grant authorisation for use:

Greece - 3 months
Bulgaria, Italy, Spain - 8/9 months
France - 20 months (I think additional testing was required for their Maritaine Zone)

I don't know whether Cedroz will take as long.

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 10:08

Brucie5,

The only reference point and rough guide I have for how long this might take is to compare it to the individual approvals of each country in the case of Mevalone/ 3AEY from it's original EU approval.

Some countries as you will see by going through the RNS history were quicker than others. Surprisingly the country making the most noise about pesticides in EU, France, was the slowest I believe.

[northwick] 20/2/2019 10:04

Now that we have received authorisation from Malta, and hopefully other countries aren't too far behind in granting their approvals, when will institutions start to take an interest in Eden? Surely, there must be a few green fund out there that might be interested. How long before Shore Capita revises its outlook

[brucie5] 20/2/2019 09:52

Super,

Good point. News this morning, that we have (among) the highest rate of Asthma in Europe, I think, along with obesity. It's a multi-factoral event, but the relationship between struggling health services and poor diet is increasingly urgent.


How significant do you see this mornings news re. Malta, please? The small print says, individual approvals now needed.

"Following the authorisation by Malta, the concerned Member States ("cMS") must grant their individual approvals for the sale and use of Cedroz within their jurisdictions. The pending approvals will cover Spain and Italy, for outdoor uses and will also cover France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, as well as Spain and Italy, for professional greenhouse uses. Once approved, Cedroz will be the first of Eden's formulations to be sold and used in the United Kingdom, where the company is headquartered. "

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 09:51

Brucie5,

I don't believe Eden tech can be labelled 'Organic' atm as some of the ingredients are synthetically derived.

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 09:49

Eberhardt,

Yes Farmers like to drench but the flaw in the cunning plan is humans need to eat food who's production does not destroy soil life and who's consumers don't suffer from dramatically increasing amount of auto immune diseases created in large part by the degradation of the Gut and land Biome by Glyphosate, plastics, nitrates, antibiotics, pesticides and pollution.

Simply put Health services cannot sustain the cost burden as the chemicals weaken and destroy the host populations immune system generation by generation.

[brucie5] 20/2/2019 09:45

Eberhardt, excellent to have you reading this board. Might I trouble you for a brief evaluation from your expert pov on EDEN's products and potential? You're not doubt aware that quite a lot of speculative energy has been spent on the possibilities of its Sustaine technology for encapsulation/co-encapsulation, though some of this seems to imply that we can find new ways of encapsulating the same old poisons. As a bee keeper, you'll be fully aware of the threats posed by neonicotinoids.

In the meantime here's something from today's Guardian about the repivoting of European agriculture away from grain fed meat, and towards organic approaches. I'm not sure, however, if EDEN's products do actually count as 'organic'. Perhaps Super can correct me?

[eberhardt] 20/2/2019 09:38

Brucie. Yes as a smallholder with a focus on beekeeping. Sorry the link seems to have extended into the first part of the sentence after; try

[brucie5] 20/2/2019 09:33

Eberhardt, couldn't see anything on your link. Are you a farmer?

[eberhardt] 20/2/2019 09:27

Brucie and Super further to your posts 5764/5 see the farming community here this is probably the biggest use of Glyphosate et al. It beats waiting for the sun to shine and ensures we all get crops that have been drenched! Yum!

[chrischas] 20/2/2019 09:10

Yes looked at Eden’s Web site and found it not under “ Latest news” but in a section entitled “Regulatory News “ Nothing like keeping your cards close to your chest

[supersonico] 20/2/2019 07:17

Eden Research plc
EU Product Authorisation - Cedroz

[supersonico] 19/2/2019 17:16

They all get the opportunity of buying big at an early stage without pushing the share price up. Their investment is big for Eden but chicken feed considering their overall portfolio. I guess they have an expectation based on the info, privileged or otherwise the company tells them and from their own advisers. They must have some rule of thumb idea about the horizon and be realistic about trends ,timelines and regulation etc.

I imagine their willingness to invest and subsequent stickiness tells us something about the rewards they expect to receive for their patience in relation to other opportunities. They are also trapped in an illiquid share so selling a wad is not easy. Quality Research, confidence and Patience makes sense unless they want to loose a packet.

[investingisatrickygame] 19/2/2019 16:55

Super,

Post 5765 sounds logical.

I was wondering how Livingbridge, JM Finn and Artemis feel at this moment in time about our share price. They have all been invested for a while and like us, have watched missed timelines and a flat share price for years. I'm sure they like the story, believe the story, but do they think that value is aligned with current commercial progress and if not, what do they think will make that happen?

I ask because we here, me and those looking in are focused on our own value measure. However, these three hold over 20% of the issued share capital and so they have the ability to be far more influential with the Company than we do, added to the fact that Eden will listen to them more than individual shareholders.

They can't be happy with zero and minus returns over many years. I wonder if they have set their own timelines to realise some kind of return or even timelines for price points to be achieved. They will think they could be earning money elsewhere, so at some stage they will make a decision about the size of their investment in Eden and the time for it to stay there. Regulatory framework on not, share price appreciation can and should be delivered. It happens in other regulatory sectors so in that respect, this is no different.

I imagine the longer they choose to hold, the more Eden will have to appreciate to justify the many barren years that their money and their clients money put up with. I also wonder if they have been speaking with management about this very fact and exercising whatever muscle they can deploy to ensure their money stays invested.

[supersonico] 19/2/2019 16:32

Not that I'm aware of, however I'd would not be surprised if a Sipcam Bayer collaboration was looking into reducing the harmful effects of the formulation chemistry with High Potency Micro-encapsulation in some way as a means of reducing the toxicity of Roundup in the Phase out period.

One thing to remember as a consumer is all that Glyphosate drenched Grain which has higher Residue tolerances by massive multiples to veg is fed to all EU animals which all EU residents except the Organic consumers eat.

[brucie5] 19/2/2019 16:17

Super, re. the above, is there anything in the EDEN stable via Sustaine, that has the capacity to 'ripen grain'? This of course would be a 'post harvest' application, which EDEN is cleared for in relation to Mevalone, isn't it? But I haven't heard of this effect being any part of the announced stable of applications, unless someone else is able to co-encapsulate.

Sounds like a much needed technology.

[supersonico] 19/2/2019 13:58

'Canadian wheat exports to Italy are still low because of the use of glyphosate. Italy, a country that has voted for the ban of this chemical in the European Union, does not return to its positions, reports Radio-Canada.
Italy, one of Canada's two largest buyers of wheat, stopped ordering it in huge quantities after discovering that some local farmers were using glyphosate to ripen grain, says Radio-Canada . The result: a 70% drop in imports of Canadian wheat for six months, from November 2017 to August 2018'.