Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[investingisatrickygame] 07/1/2019 10:53

A few small sales this morning Super, no doubt based on more disappointment re timelines from Eden.

The BoD do read information here so it is worth posting. I'm sure if they read it then other related parties will as well.

[supersonico] 07/1/2019 10:29

The List;

nvestingisatrickygame - 29 Dec 2018 - 12:55:19 - 5271 of 5413
Eden Research - EDEN
A reminder of what we expected, what's been delivered and what's still due.

Only 1,4,9 (in part) & 12 has so far been qualified.

In no particular order

1) USA distributor for Mevalone
2) Toll manufacturing in ...Brazil
3) Possible update from Eden/Eastman on Cedroz
4) Sipcam new territories
5) Sipcam licence extensions
6) Sipcam/Eden new pipeline products
7) Sipcam success on encapsulation of up to 21 of their own current commercial pesticides
8) Sipcam co-encapsulation of their own pesticides with Eden's active ingredients
9) Milestone and other payments from Sipcam
10) Bayer launch of 4 animal health products in the USA
11) European distributor for Eden/TT's head lice product
12) UK launch date for Eden/TT's head lice product
13) TT launch of Deodorant
14) Update by Eden of TT developed products using Eden's Sustaine technology
15) Possible European distributor for 4 animal health care products in Europe
16) Sipcam potential appointee to the board of Eden
17) Chairman's purchase of Eden shares as indicated at the June 2018 AGM
18) Eden update on patents
19) End of year sales indication (late December if as before)

MOST, but not all of this is due before 31/12/2018 as previously RNS'd and mentioned at this year's AGM

[investingisatrickygame] 07/1/2019 10:16

Brucie5 said

" EDEN by contrast seldom seems to disappoint in disappointing. Or delaying."

For a company dealing with majors, with game-changing tech, with promised news on TT, Bayer, Sipcam and more (god forbid we reproduce the list) Eden is dreadful at A) delivering on-time, that which it specifically puts in the public domain B) managing expectations once they fail to deliver on-time and C) establishing trust with its investor base.

[supersonico] 07/1/2019 09:47

Brucie5

That's an interesting interpretation but I have been pulling a patchwork of 4/5 years worth of Verisimilitude RNS information together making the same Broken Record argument for over a year now to form my Hypothosis.

It's not my fault that Eden are giving my delusional postulations some form of unwarranted credibility.

On 'Sustaine' were waiting on TT / Bayer / Sumitomo.

I'm guessing that TT will be backed by a big player so that's means imo we maybe waiting on three Global Corporations.

It's up to each of us to decide if that's Coordination or Coincidence. I add in AR / Xinova and Game-changing-idea and make Coordination most likely but I'm a fully qualified Imagineer, you would expect that wouldn't you? :)

All my Imagineering comes from the same Disciplined school of Imagination that Imagineered the Palm oil Picture was Sumitomo related in post 4446

[brucie5] 07/1/2019 09:30

super, you see silver linings in every cloud. In every setback you see a conspiracy of hope. In every delay, you see only signs of mysterious progress, hidden from the rest of us.

Love it! Just don't believe it, till I see it.

[supersonico] 07/1/2019 09:27

Olympic Parallel Delays.

Why?

[brucie5] 07/1/2019 08:56

Observation of the day: EDEN via TT have still not issued an RNS re. the promised lice treatment. Now overdue for that trumpeted 'return to school' window.

Over at my comparator, OPTI, the CEO has just signed a licensing agreement in India. The share price thus far goes nowhere, but then Stephen O'Hara is managing to keep the mcap at 77m on revenues of just 200k. SOH is nothing if not proactive.

EDEN by contrast seldom seems to disappoint in disappointing. Or delaying.

[supersonico] 07/1/2019 08:30

Word of the day. Verisimilitude

[supersonico] 06/1/2019 21:13

All RNS and PR based observations All the time.

[brucie5] 06/1/2019 19:59

Gotta stop dreaming, to start living, Super.

Tomorrow... when tomorrow?

:-)

[supersonico] 06/1/2019 19:29

Tomorrow;) or some time after that.

[brucie5] 06/1/2019 18:56

Yup. That's great. Questions is: when when when when when.....

[supersonico] 06/1/2019 16:40

Had not noticed this before..most likely missed it.

[investingisatrickygame] 06/1/2019 14:45

Super,

Yes it would and maybe Sumi-Agro would get a wider distribution remit beyond France.

Where I wonder, does this place Bayer in terms of Eden priorities.

Would Sumitomo work through Sipcam or SAE or would they take a direct position to Eden. Would that mean another cash injection to the very positive. How would Eden & Sustaine TM be positioned across the European or global Agro-Chemical market? Would Sumitomo have global Agro-Chemical rights for Sustaine and share with their affiliates, Sipcam and SAE. Would Sumitomo want to own the Agro-Chemical European or global market for Sustaine TM and if so, how would that be valued.

Sumitomo has been there in the background with visibility to Eden and Sustaine for at least 18 months.

If Xinova's statement about Eden Tech being game-changing hxxps://www.xinova.com/work/eden-research/ is that significant, then maybe we have a bigger statement coming from Eden than Sipcam's evaluation of Sustaine for encapsulation of Sipcam products as well as co-encapsulation with Eden's active ingredients.

One could even assume that as the Sipcam evaluation RNS is delivered, a separate Sumitomo RNS could be delivered to. Wishful thinking perhaps, but very logical with existing relationships currently in play.

[brucie5] 06/1/2019 14:21

Great thinking, guys. But still a case of Show me the money!

[supersonico] 06/1/2019 14:16

Investing,

If that is the case then that makes Lykele's statements about Eden becoming a significant player in the crop protection market a tangible prospect especially as Sipcam are treating it's development as a priority.

[investingisatrickygame] 06/1/2019 14:04

Super,

You and wan have posted similar.

Given the right's of Sipcam and its affiliates from the June 2017 Collaboration RNS, it is more than reasonable to assume that Sustaine TM will make its way back into Sumitomo.....why not!

[supersonico] 06/1/2019 11:34

Given Eden's strong relationship with Sipcam and therefore Sumitomo can we contemplate the possibility that 'Sustaine TM' will involve many Sumitomo partners? and maybe even be being shaped by Sumitomo?

News from 2011.

Sumitomo formed strategic capital alliance with Sipcam



Sumitomo Corporation announces that Sumi Agro Europe Ltd., Sumitomo Corporation's 100% subsidiary engaged in the sales of agricultural chemicals, and Sipcam S.p.A formed a strategic capital alliance by mutually acquiring 10% of the outstanding shares of their newly established holding companies, namely Sumi Agro Limited and Sipcam Europe S.p.A (AgroNews 2011-07-22).

SAL supervises the business of its subsidiaries in France, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech/Slovakia, Bulgaria and Germany, while Sipcam Europe supervises the business of its subsidiaries in Italy, Spain, Portugal, the U.K., Greece and Benelux countries. Through the capital alliance, SAE and Sipcam will establish common platform to expand their sales across the European agricultural chemicals market and enhance the development, registration and marketing of their agricultural chemicals, fertilizers and seeds across all the major European markets. Also, the provision of comprehensive functions (for development, registration and marketing) mutually made for the respective parties will help both of them expand their product lineups.

The European agricultural chemicals market is sized at 11.5 billion US dollars, which accounts for nearly 30% of the world market. In particular, the Central and East European market and the South European market together are sized at 7.1 billion US dollars, and are therefore important European markets. Regarding the registration of agricultural chemicals in the region, a shift occurred from the traditional registration systems specific for each country to the unified EU 27 registration system. Accordingly, it is becoming more necessary and important for companies to expand their business to cover the entire EU region. Against this background, SAE and Sipcam aim to expand their business through the capital alliance.

Sumitomo Corporation has been expanding its value chain in the agricultural chemicals business by starting from the export of products made by Japanese manufacturers and subsequently establishing its local importing and distributing corporations and agricultural materials sales companies in 20 or more countries across the world. Through the capital alliance with Sipcam via SAE, the Company plans to improve its distribution network in the European region, which represents the world's largest market for agricultural chemicals, thereby fostering its business expansion and making more contributions to the stable supply of food across the world.

[brucie5] 05/1/2019 17:18

Zho is indeed an honest broker. At least I have absolutely no reason to think otherwise!

[brucie5] 05/1/2019 16:45

(Warning: building a post!)

Here's what Jak said re. sales:(and I exclude the rather irritating attempts at irony)

"I forecast sales for the full year of circa £1.5m, full-year losses of about £2m and net cash of about £2.4m. I also forecast yet another placing later this year."


(My comment: that's good to know! We can see how accurate these are shortly..)

And here are his (usefully) reproduced figures on last three halves of revenues:

2017 H1 £1,026k
2017 H2 £851k
2018 H1 £682k

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My comment: Revenue for H1 2018 are rather instructive, as they appear to have contained no milestones or extra payments. Am I right? So we have a solid base on which to start.

I also wish to emphasise that for me this company MUST soon build its revenues to B/E, to show progress. So I will be looking carefully at their losses announced, should they make them for FY 2018, though as to a future placing, I would so imagine that their revenues (not sales) will be flattered by milestones yet to come for FY 2019, including the ones just indicated as due from Sipcam.

I'm also interested in with Jak should overlook the significance of the change in sales model, as per my post ( 'It is important to note that the transition of certain legacy agreements (from licensing to product sales) had not been completed with some partners by the end of 2017, but we expect this to be completed in time for the 2018 growing season'). This is material, surely, to the building of revenues, is it not?

In the meantime, buried within the losses for H1 2018 we had this snippet of good news:
Product sales £0.68m (H1 2017: £0.43m). What's that... a 58% increase? And France, the second largest wine producer only just come on line in 2017?

Hmm. So now we have to see what the H2 sales have been like. Sean tells us to expect " an increase in product sales volumes in the second half of 2018. The full extent of this increase will be closely linked to the end-of-season weather patterns and their impact on the emergence of botrytis in the late pre-harvest period." Not forgetting the use of 3aey post harvest, which is another usage, slow to start, but significant to build sales, and restocking as, M. Waters, points out, at end of year.

In conclusion, while I would agree that these sales have to start from a low base, I'm not quite sure where the extreme pessimism comes from, but I'm not going to forecast sales before we hear of them. When Attg inquired at the AGM he was pointed towards Shore's forecast of 3m, I believe, with losses of .9, though I'm not sure if this included anything from Bayer or TT, from whom we STILL have to hear... (Delays, delays..)Indeed Jak may even be right with his more sobre forecast of 2m - though I'd be very surprised- and with extra milestones arriving in the account shortly, it would seem overly negative to presume a fundraise and discount both the achievement thus far, with all the potential for growth that this implies, let alone the significance of what is yet to appear over the horizon in 2019.

And at a mcap of 25m, we haven't even mentioned the eggs that have yet to hatch. Over a three year view, my money is on this being at a turning point this year.

[brucie5] 05/1/2019 16:39

Thanks Zho. On your recommendation I have unfiltered him, though we didn't really seem to be having a conversation. At the next opportunity to reassess, such as sales update, I will be interested to hear what he has to say. But it's a bit tedious to be arguing with someone about the price of chickens when you're actually in the market for eggs... if you get my drift.

But not sure if you're here because interested in EDEN yourself, or just to give me that salutary word of advice?

[zho] 05/1/2019 14:57

Brucie5,

JakNife is one of the few posters to whom it is always worth paying attention.