Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[sweet karolina] 25/5/2017 08:42

Shore Cap's revenue target for 2016 was missed by a country mile. As house broker they are paid to promote the share. They will be looking forward to the fees from the next placing.

[birotop] 25/5/2017 08:19

lol...............

[northwick] 24/5/2017 23:18

Quazie12

Half yearly figures due in September 2017 will prove you wrong.

Shore Capital (with new guidance from Eden) only released a new research note predicting sales of 1.7m in Year 2017 and £4m in Year 2019.

So hold your breath until then.

[paulpaolo] 24/5/2017 22:08

"No one knows for sure what orders will come be from France and or other countries suffice to say it will far exceed last years shipment". Well it wasn't licensed in France last year at all so, yes. I was brought up on a smallholding under glass in the fens, everyone would go to the sales show for growers at "Springfields" and when our neighbours got the latest thing - one year in about 1976 it was a new sort of sprayer from America called a turbair - my dad would get one too. I imagine it may work the same for French growers. But someone was the first to get a turbair .....

[northwick] 24/5/2017 12:34

Shore capital has come out with a new research note dated 23/5/17.

Don't think it is wholly accurate.

[attyg] 24/5/2017 11:36

Crikey, never done that before.
I responded eventually.

[northwick] 24/5/2017 11:17

Attyg

sent you a private message

[monty panesar] 24/5/2017 10:41

Not a shareholder here. I didn't like the terpene tech deal from the moment it was announced...see my posts.
I do think now it is becoming interesting...especially as the old guard has(been) moved on.

[attyg] 24/5/2017 10:15

Thanks for that Northwick.
I tried to get info from the Sipcan site, but in vain.
The price sounds right.
Distributors (Sipcam) may have had introductory prices to launch 3LOGY last year.
I would expect prices to increase as users understand about the effectiveness of 3LOGY, both as an inhibitor of botrytis and its ability to be used almost to harvest time - increasing the quality of the grapes, ie I expect the product to command a premium price compared to its competitors in the near future.

Very good article you referred us to.
Read to me that Audier was involved in the trials and is a complete convert. An excellent region to test 3AEY upon and I am confident SUMIAGRO will make a big splash launching 3AEY (Mevalone in France)and will be received well by wine grape growers. Great to also read that 3AEY is likely to be used for other products, vegetables etc.

Like JakNife, I look forward to the interims in September, where I expect to see worthwhile top line and margin performance.

[supersonico] 24/5/2017 09:51

Fraufy/JakNife will be on the Consensus Narrative white board with Lube SK, JakNife2 and PJ1 eagerly taking notes.

All offering their 'Honestly held opinion'.

Bless.

[birotop] 24/5/2017 09:17

Bet fat Tom is on the phone now......

[northwick] 24/5/2017 09:15

Attyg

Just found out from Italy that one can buy a litre of 3Logy at 26.00 Euro including vat. Discounts may be available for larger orders, I presume. This gives us a starting point.

[sweet karolina] 24/5/2017 08:44

It is interesting that whilst headline (including the fraud in 2015 numbers) revenue is falling and loss increasing, the board have received a 16% pay rise for the cash elements with Sean Smith awarding himself over 17%. With more cash being paid to the board as emoluments than total revenue, it is very clear that this is nothing more than a lifestyle company.

[sweet karolina] 24/5/2017 08:30

Jaknife,

The post you reproduced at 2326 works from the cash in bank position. However going concern needs to be considered from the net current assets perspective. Net current assets were only £800k (as opposed to the £1.5m of cash). Basically Eden, the proven fraudsters, have not been paying the bills in order to flatter their cash position.

Starting the same projections from this point indicates that a placing will most probably be needed before Interims are published in Sept.

It will be interesting to see whether the auditors buy the directors' cash flow projections nonsense or whether they emphasis the matter of going concern in the full report.

[supersonico] 24/5/2017 08:16

Good find Northwick..
I particularly like;

'Some believe Mevalone could revolutionize grape-growing around the world'.

Lets hope they're right.

[northwick] 24/5/2017 07:04

Worth a read

[pj 1] 23/5/2017 23:06

Jaknife has made an extremely valid point. Whether Long or Short, seeking confirmation bias has been the downfall of many.....

[northwick] 23/5/2017 22:32

Attyg

A good & interesting post.

[gemstar2] 23/5/2017 21:23

Why do I get the impression that Quazie is a little sour about things?

Not difficult to confuse him with a ray of sunshine

[supersonico] 23/5/2017 20:42

Thanks AttyG..much appreciated.

[attyg] 23/5/2017 20:25

Looking at the accounts, I note Product Sales of £65k with Cost of Sales of £29k producing a gross margin of 56%.

Royalties, Licensing and Evaluation fees and Milestone payments all at 100% gross margin.

On the basis of the data in the accounts (£123k royalties from ~€1m sales) the Royalties generated ~14% on distributor sales.

Eden now appear to have agreed with Sipcam etc that they will supply 3AEY direct.

From the accounts we know ~ 85,000 litres were sold for ~€1m meaning the Distributor sales price was ~€11.76 per litre.
Let’s assume Eden sells 3AEY for €5 per litre and makes a 50% margin.
I think sales of 3AEY will be more than 4 times the sales achieved last year – 340,000 litres.
Using the above assumptions, Eden will generate ~£726k contribution to profit from manufacturing.
Using the above assumptions and on the basis the royalty rate remains as in last year, then we can expect Royalty income of ~£491k.
These two contributors to profit then generate ~£1.2m.
Of course there will also be Milestone payments (Sumi Agro France for the approval to sell 3AEY in France - £50k?
Eastman fees for Nemanticides - £50k?
Royalty receipts from TT from the sale of Head Lice products etc.

I will be disappointed if Eden is not cash positive in the current year.

To get a sense of the size of the opportunity Eden presents:

In 2016, Italy had 1.7m acres of vineyard under production.
This equates to 690k hectares.
If Eden captures 20% of the market, then it might not be unreasonable to consider sales of 2.2m litres of 3LOGY (4 litres per hectare applied 4 times in the year).
Of course that is just Italy.
Should 3LOGY capture 20% of this total market then we might expect Royalties of ~£3m and manufacturing gross profit of ~£4.7m producing £7.7m – in only Italy and this is only 3AEY.
We can expect to see other products generating revenue:
2018 – Bayer;
2019 Eastman and others beyond.
Of course TT will be producing income to Eden in 2017 and we will be equity accounting for our share of TT’s annual profit.

I consider the potential in Eden to be enormous.

Each of you will have different assumptions, I just thought that with JakNife sharing his POV, I would share mine.