Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[supersonico] 01/9/2019 09:04

Incongruence or Conspiracy.. You decide?

I ask you to consider Chart 5: Product sales/revenue development P12 in relation to what we have been told about Mevalone sales and it's increased use through sales growth and territory expansion /wider application/ Post Harvest etc in Sipcam exercises Option for new distribution agreements in additional territories and Grant of 'Emergency use' authorisation Mevalone 29 July 2019.


The Cenkos p12 chart shows an increase in Mevalone sales by around 50% 2018A to 2021E. In that time I think we can expect from the literature a doubling of countries where licences and approvals exist along with a parallel compounding 15% growth y-o-y in Organic and Biopesticide markets yet Cenkos project Mevalone sales only increasing by around 50% over 3 years.

Is that realistic or a gross under statement?

Cenkos report does not include mention of TRIGEMOL / EUGETI / CAGENOLETA or add any commentary or Value for the Organic market which will be captured following EU EGTOP authorisation.

Cenkos p11

'Core product sales At present, Eden Research sells its lead product Mevalone to its distribution partners for sale in ten countries and we classify these sales as core product sales. With new product launches and new countries brought on-line, our definition of core sales will expand.

We forecast Eden Research’s core product sales growing by 7% on a like-for-like basis in 2019E, generating £1.7m of product sales in the year'.
…………………….

Sipcam exercises Option for new distribution agreements in additional territories.

By exercising its option, and following Eden's receipt of the €0.9m option exercise fee, Sipcam will be appointed exclusive distributor of Eden's first fungicide product, known as Mevalone, in the USA, Brazil, Mexico, China, Argentina, Chile, Japan, and South Africa. Mevalone, which is currently sold throughout Europe and in Kenya, will be marketed by Sipcam following receipt of the requisite approvals in each country. Eden recently announced the appointment of Sipcam as its exclusive distributor of Mevalone in Australia and New Zealand, thereby bringing the total number of countries in which Sipcam is Eden's distributor to twelve. Sipcam is already the exclusive distributor of Mevalone in Italy and Spain (where it is sold as 3logy® and Araw®, respectively), and therefore has good product knowledge and insight into the grape fungicide market, making it well-positioned to commercialise Mevalone in new markets. The new distribution agreements covering China and Japan will mark Eden's first entry into the Far East and presents a significant opportunity as China is the largest grower of grapes in the world.

[sandcrab2] 01/9/2019 08:38

Without access to the internal projections of Edens licencees, I can't see how Cenkos can make any statement as to future revenue

Economically, Eden is a passive licensor, which explains Cenkos caution

[supersonico] 31/8/2019 20:54

TT and Eden do disappointment like Miles Davis does jazz trumpet.

Together they'll likely give you another type of Blues.

[northwick] 31/8/2019 20:08

I wouldn't be surprised to see launch of their new website and launch of their head lice product on Monday with 1/2 yearly figures from Eden. it will be disappointing otherwise.

[supersonico] 31/8/2019 18:42

Northwick,

The question now is ..will it return?

[supersonico] 31/8/2019 16:18

Your far from Obtuse Brucie5..and these are simple questions backed up by references and quotes. I thought conspiracy was far more speculative. My opinion is based on the incongruence as I see it based on that research.

Perhaps you could try addressing them. I'd be interested in your perspective on posts 6820 what's happened to TT HL products in relation to Major Unmet market need ? and 6821 why is EGTOP not in Cenkos 2019?

[brucie5] 31/8/2019 15:51

supersonico
31 Aug '19 - 15:13 - 6821 of 6821
0 0 0
Sipcam News

Incongruence or Conspiracy??.. You Decide
------------------------------------------
Super, why don't you tell us what you think! Much as I enjoy your speculations, I'm far too obtuse to follow them.

I simply don't think there is any reason for the BoD to start bigging up these shares in order to realise their options at 20p+, if they strongly suspect, with history as their guide, that they will simply be sold down again. Can you imagine shareholder reaction?

Until we have sales in significant volume, growing Y-o-Y, this will be perceived, as it is on Stocko, as a 'sucker stock'. No reason to buy, except in order to sell into any significant rise, prior to the falling down again.

I am on record here as projecting, however amateurishly, significant and growing revenues on a 3 year view; but even if they double sales to 3.1 in 2020, and with milestones on top, sales are not profits.

I think this is a share with great potential; but sometimes it can be almost as bad to be 'early' as to be 'wrong'. Unless you have faith in your patience, and are willing to pay the opportunity cost.

[supersonico] 31/8/2019 15:13

Sipcam News

Incongruence or Conspiracy??.. You Decide

I'm assuming the 'Organico' is Organic in Italian.

Sipcam are looking for a Regulatory specialist which includes Organic products at a time when they have already referenced EGTOP authorization pending in PR. This Vacancy Ad comes out the day an Eden commissioned report fails to mention EGTOP.

29/08/2019 PRODUCT REGULATORY SPECIALIST

Sipcam Italia, primaria azienda italiana di agrofarmaci, nutrizione e seme di soia, nell’ambito del progetto di potenziamento dell’organico del proprio team Regulatory, cerca un/una Product Regulatory Specialist.

Il Product Regulatory Specialist, in collaborazione con R&D e Marketing, contribuisce ai progetti di sviluppo e mantenimento dei portafogli agrofarmaci e nutrizione in Italia.

[supersonico] 31/8/2019 13:24

Private investors don't understand why Eden have gone Soggy.. News

TT Head lice lotion.
Soggy Incongruence or Conspiracy theory??..

You Decide whether the 'Major Unmet market need ' as described in 2015 is adequately represented by Cenkos in Aug 2019 'Killing it' report. You could also consider if the anecdotal mayonnaise and Garlic treatment news report is also a sign of a current 'Major Unmet market need' that Cenkos fails to sufficiently relate in the same way SS managed to do in 2015.

Perhaps Cenkos should have consulted SS.. Oh they did.. and some how it all got soggy in translation like the rest of 'Killing it 4NY.'

24 August 2015

Eden's Chief Executive, Sean Smith, commented: "This Agreement is significant to Eden in terms of both the licence fee and the market opportunity. We believe that the combination of Eden's patented GO-E™ encapsulation system with efficacious, low-risk ingredients will provide the differentiator and sustainable competitive advantage required to be successful in this attractive market.

"Products that exhibit immediate and sustained efficacy against lice and their eggs, safety, and ease of use are well-positioned to secure market leadership in a relatively short time frame. The incumbent treatments not only fall short with respect to these qualities, but they also suffer when highly-adaptable lice develop resistance to many of the most effective synthetic actives. We believe TerpeneTech's products will fit a major unmet market need.

"Eden has worked well with TerpeneTech over the years and is pleased with the contribution that it has made. At this stage it makes sense for Eden to take a larger share in the future value that is being built by TerpeneTech in addition to the royalties that are due to Eden under the existing and new licence agreements.



Cenkos 2019 @'Killing it'

'We expect TerpeneTech to launch its headlice treatment in the UK in time for the return to school season in September 2019. At this time, we do not include royalty forecasts for Eden Research, given the size of the UK market means any income is likely to be relatively small. However, if the product is successfully rolled out in larger markets, eg across Europe and into the US, the royalty potential of the product could become more significant.

Eden Research believes that the global headlice market is worth ~$700m at the retail level and is seen as lacking particularly effective products, relying on synthetic chemical active ingredients and lice removal devices. Trials undertaken by TerpeneTech suggest that its headlice therapy delivers a high degree of efficacy treating both lice and their eggs'.

[northwick] 31/8/2019 13:18

Is Terpene Tech updating its website?Looks like it has been taken down.

[supersonico] 30/8/2019 17:05

Don't get Down Investing..a New School year starts next week..you know what that means..don't you?..Time to treat the epidemic that has left Mums resorting to homemade mayonnaise and garlic Lice Lotion. No hurry then .

It's a chance for Eden who imho are becoming less accountable to shareholders and less aligned to shareholder interests and less transparent to really prove they don't just waste money on commissioning not one but two soggy reports but who can finally show they can keep to their short order parallel delayed timetable..

[investingisatrickygame] 30/8/2019 15:51

The Eden story and bond with investors, one might argue, is weakening, not strengthening.

A 50 page report offers two products, Mevalone and Cedroz, with downstream possibilities for Sustaine and G3Y. Yet, our closest benchmark is Marrone Bio, worth 6x our market cap, so should Eden be 60p now? If not, why not? If not, why the benchmark?

What else does Eden have in field trials?

Will Eden ever tell us about where Sipcam is in their analysis of Sustaine for both combined product/formulation and stand-alone. We are over two years down the line from the start of that evaluation and yet there is absolute silence.

Investors should be both angry and disappointed with this report. Not because it isn't detailed, it is. But, it does everything to avoid the real questions and the real content that allows investors to make investment decisions.

With a current price target of 12p for 2020 and 19p for 2021, why would I invest today? Based on that commentary there is no need and no hurry. These price targets make a mockery of Eden commentary.

hxxp://www.edenresearch.com/~/media/Files/E/Eden-Research/documents/reports-and-presentation/agm-presentation-2019.pdf

Slide 3
Slide 8
Slide 18 - Many years away given product development and commercialisation lifecycle
Slide 19 - proven addressable market is totally disconnected to price targets. Our target share must be miniscule
Slide 20

[supersonico] 30/8/2019 13:01

Incongruence is not a conspiracy theory when the Cenkos account does not match company reports.. and that's not all your left with.. as my previous posts detail and fully reference my points in full..so you can decide for yourself.

An example of Dampening by omission ... Cenkos make reference to Copper as a fungicide in Organic market but fail to mention EGTOP and likely Organic authorisation which Sipcam have signalled in it's own PR. Eden's Mevalone post Organic authorisation could replace Copper products..but not a mention of this.

Is that Conspiracy theory ?

[brucie5] 30/8/2019 12:57

I think you should make the approach. They won't come to you. Otherwise all we're left with is conspiracy theories, aka 'incongruence', filling in the gaps, etc.

[supersonico] 30/8/2019 12:14

Brucie5,

Both ShoreCap and now Cenkos have painted a similar picture, both have done what EDEN paid them to do. The facts speak for themselves. This is a predictably very limited and shallow dive from Cenkos and only strengthens my conviction again that my Dampening narrative is an accurate representation of company policy. The Gaps in the commentary alone around TT are gapping Holes and only amplify my frustration and incredulity. This is intentional policy by Eden, an enquiry from me will not alter that one iota imo.

Investings point in post 6810 'why not give a 2020e, 2021e for Cedroz globally'? perfectly captures that absence of any real depth to the analysis. Do you not believe Eastman who know their market inside out, don't have projections about a product that is in many ways replacing a product they currently sell that is being phased out or are they as in the dark about future sales as we are?..I doubt it. In fact I believe those numbers will be very large..but Eden will not even tell us Eastman's low ball assessment with all the usual caveats. Why Not?.

On it's own one could understand omissions or cautiousness of over promising but when the picture is so shallow and full of incongruity with previous company statement s, omissions, gaps and lacks clarity then it's Policy imho.

Of course I invite Eden to write to me to offer further clarity .. ..then I could report back as you suggest.

[brucie5] 30/8/2019 11:28

Super, may I suggest that you arrange to speak to the CEO to put these questions? Hastings on the MW site was able to do this. Then you could report back, and the resultant clarity would be helpful to EDEN as well as ourselves. I'm sure Sean would be open to this.

[investingisatrickygame] 30/8/2019 11:24

If Cenkos is happy to give 2019e for Mevalone and Cedroz US, why not give a 2020e, 2021e for Cedroz globally, which it will be in 2021 to give a larger sense of scale and thus value opportunity to invest.

The research paper headline says "Killing It", the report, whilst detailed, gives absolutely no numeric identity of killing it at all.

Very disappointing that Cenkos cannot/haven't painted the value picture for all to clearly see.

[supersonico] 29/8/2019 11:40

Fraudy Lad

I'm still waiting on the a Mancast mentioning Eden..it's been over 230 days..I'm sensing a lack of Fraudy motivation, conviction and confidence.

Also where are the Lube?.. more lube means their is a share price campaign but a dribble like you signals defeat..come on Man-up Fraudy make an effort.

Oh yes nearly forgot....I'm loving the castrated and submissive use of the word 'Gimmickry'.

All signs that The Supersonico take down of Fraudy is complete.

[supersonico] 28/8/2019 16:59

What a fun day.. Gimmicky Fraudy lube avoiding this thread and coverage with FT posting Cenkos Eden Buy..Recommendation. Mrs100K will be doublechuffed..



● In brief: Chesnara raised to “hold” at Peel Hunt; Dassault Aviation rated new “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley; Eden Research rated new “buy” at Cenkos Securities; H&M raised to “outperform” at RBC; Leonardo rated new “overweight” at Morgan Stanley; Meggitt cut to “sell” at Société; Générale; Royal Unibrew raised to “hold” at Jefferies; Sixt raised to “buy” at UBS.