Eastern Plat Share Discussion Threads

[doobydave] 24/4/2007 23:23

Rambutan:

1) You're right. It was 700,000oz in one of Rozier's March presentations and the 500,000oz reduction was a surprise. Not sure why.

2) I wonder if the smelter at CRM - which was off my radar until v. recently, i.e. I had no idea they were building one before 2 months ago - has been a factor. I wonder if Rozier saw writing on the wall (lack of relaibility, monopolistic demands, looming capacity crisis) and decided to act sharpish, thus diverting cash and management attention. Pure speculation on my part.

3) Yes, SLV/Mareesburg partnership omitted but I'm not worried by that. I think we'll have news soon-ish.

4) Like the smelter, I fancied the chrome circuit was a new innovation at CRM. Again, I may be wrong.

I do agree there are a lot of unknowns. ELR is one complicated beastie at the moment. Pleased to see though that all three brokers covering ELR have it as a strong buy.
DD

[rambutan2] 24/4/2007 23:04

dd,

the april elr presentation talks of 500k production in 2012 - isn't that a reduction?

also, how does the crm smelter decision effect things?

also, noted no mention of everest/sylvania on said presentation.

also, still talking of chrome circuit at crm as though not yet in action, although i thought it was?

hmmm. am enjoying the current ride but don't feel as though i fully understand what i'm riding on.

[gardenboy] 24/4/2007 22:38

cool reception to the ETF launch might explain the slight pullback in Canada.

[tee man] 24/4/2007 21:00

Depends old old that list is ridge has moved up a lot recently.

[doobydave] 24/4/2007 17:41

Ridge looks good value on this basis. Any opinions?

[tee man] 24/4/2007 14:14

It seems a lot of PGM companies are moving up ELR,SLV,RDG, ARQ on TXS to name a few on speculation of mergers, general shortages of the metal for the future and the new platinum EFT which is proposed. Long may it last, in from 65p. :-)

[doobydave] 24/4/2007 09:45

Playing catch-up from TSX last night.

Nice, but can't help wondering why all this movement, which IMHO is disproportionate to Pt price appreciation. Much of this could be M&A speculation. Has the recent placing at CAD1.90 even closed yet?

The bull argument is that ELR is still lowly-valued for a producer of 100,000oz PGE and that revaluation is overdue. I think that's true and that ELR is getting noticed, but by whom, and for what reason?

Would be interested to hear others' interpretations & views on this.
DD

[gardenboy] 24/4/2007 08:52

ram,

thanks for info - looking good today :~)

[rambutan2] 23/4/2007 23:29

Merger and Acquisition fever strikes platinum juniors

A carnival-casino atmosphere infects the South African junior platinum sector, with massive variances in valuations...

[rambutan2] 22/4/2007 01:20

for reference, here's barrick's pgm interest...

[rambutan2] 21/4/2007 23:07

no mention for elr, but worth a read...

Mark Smith: RBC Capital Markets, London
Why platinum shares have been rocketing over the last little while.

Interviewer: Alec Hogg
Posted: Monday , 16 Apr 2007

(or listen)


as is this (and especially for brr fans)...
In a major new report on global platinum stocks, Mark Smith of RBC Capital Markets has addressed the investor-critical issue of bottlenecking smelter and refining capacity in the global platinum group metals (PGMs) sector...

[gardenboy] 20/4/2007 21:58

nice rise in Canada tonight with high volume

[rambutan2] 18/4/2007 11:48

presentations by aquarius, lonmin and implats amongst others...


noted that implats to build new smelter, and lonmin expecting to, and aquarius not ruling it out.

in any case, all three have something interesting to say on one aspect or other. listen in order of lonmin, implats and then aquarius.

[doobydave] 15/4/2007 10:24

While I'm posting, people may have seen fresh on Mineweb?

[doobydave] 15/4/2007 10:22

Morning Rambutan,

According to the April 2007 update on the Eastplats website, the Mareesburg feasibility was 'almost complete' - but it was 'almost complete' 6 months ago. It seems logical to suppose the delay has occurred to take account of SLV's drilling at Everest North and incorporate the figures into a larger plan. I would think McConnachie's timeline is probably right - ELR hasn't said lately and I don't really have time to hunt through past saved presentations (sorry).

As to Chrome, UG2 etc etc, I'm just as unclear now as ever. CRM has been producing from the UG2 quite nicely for a long time. I guess you know that CRM is getting its own smelter, said to be 80% complete - gets a slide to itself on the presentation? Chrome recovery circuit also features.

I am certainly wondering whether SLV may have more leverage to growth than ELR but will hold tight for now.
DD

[rambutan2] 15/4/2007 09:07

this is a good site for pgm company news, with a nice linked search engine. here's the most recent piece on elr...



also, hunting through slv mentions. how does this fit in with elr's timeline?

Everest North has an inferred resource of 800,000 oz.

"We hope to have a mine there two years from now if the drilling proves what we think is there," McConnachie said. The drilling should be completed in April 2007 and the bankable feasibility study finished in November that year, with development of an open cast and underground mine starting in June 2008.

"Ed created Kroondal and Aquarius and we hope to reproduce it again and do it the second time around," he said.



and also re slv, in case anyone missed this piece on the slv thread...

Sylvania wants to grow far beyond being just an 80,400 oz/year platinum producer from its retreatment operations. It wants to bring its portion of the bowl-shaped UG2 Everest North deposit to account.

The R500m project planned to be shared with Toronto-listed Eastern Platinum, which owns the major part of the deposit. The split in the project is yet to be determined. Based on resources, it is currently in Eastplats favour, but McConnachie hopes that this may swing a bit as more drilling results come in.

A bankable feasibility study due for completion in August is underway at the shallow deposit, which could sustain a 90,000 tonnes/month mine. At grades similar to those at Aquarius Platinum's Everest South mine, this could be a 156,250 oz/year mine.

The project will be funded from internal cash flows and Sylvania is unlikely to come to the market again.

"We are a growth story rather than a dividend story. We want to double in size every year for the foreseeable future, which is entirely possible because we are coming off a small base," McConnachie said.


(dd, interesting what final above piece says about historic efficiency of pgm refining/tailings, which slightly clashes with what i thought brr's hamish said to me)

[rambutan2] 07/4/2007 22:21

for the diary...

[rambutan2] 07/4/2007 21:52

hi dave, was just going to post the jack lifton piece, and remind us that we own rhodium reef, but see that you refer to it...


can't pretend i really understand this, but rhodium reef gets a mention near bottom of page...

[kluk069] 07/4/2007 10:35

Great for novices in such a fascinating sector to have such knowledgeable posters to learn from - here's a question where input would be valuable:

Aqp is currently valued around 4x elr - ignoring takeover speculation which of the two presents the better long term story? Aqp deservedly holds my portfolio crown but elr and upstarts slv/jlp/rdg/plaa are presenting real competition - all seem pretty sound but very keen to stick to the least frothy stories in a hot sector.

[doobydave] 05/4/2007 23:44

I agree.

ELR's value per oz in ground is too low, especially when they're a rapidly developing producer. Must be a tempting target, but the water looks impossibly muddy with all of ELR's own corporate wheeling & dealing. I suspect any predator would want this sorted out before pouncing. I know next to nothing about the big boys so you're educating me.

The more I think about it, the more I reckon predatory interests are lurking. Otherwise, why has the price has managed to stabilise at $2.15-ish rather than simply glueing itself to the forthcoming placing price of $1.90 as normally happens - unless someone knows something that makes it look cheap at any price? It's pretty unusual.

There's a really interesting article by Jack Lifton today on Resource Investor, about strategic metals. Rhodium and platinum are the top two. You don't often see much written about Rh, but just eyeball the rhodium chart in the ELR header (also the article). With 8% rhodium at Spitzkop, it's hardly surprising they are keen to get going.
DD