Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[dlku] 26/12/2016 19:54

30 december, good day for a profit warning

[s34icknote] 26/12/2016 10:21

Copied above from previous post .Worth a re read . All thoughts welcome

[s34icknote] 26/12/2016 10:19

Show the main post> mrbridgeruk - 21 Nov 2016 - 12:01 - 1289 of 1348 - 0On the March today, rumours on the contract?s34icknote - 21 Nov 2016 - 16:27 - 1290 of 1348 - 0Breaking upwardsSteMiS - 22 Nov 2016 - 00:39 - 1291 of 1348 - 0I can't see that decline in DX Exchange is a major cause of DX. profit fall in 2016. In 2013 revenue was £70m. Assuming it's declined by 6% pa (which seems to have been guidance to analysts) then by 2015 it would be about £61m. A 10% drop in revenue equates to £6m. Now I know margins are high in this area but they aren't 100%. EBITDA was down £15.7m year on year. Perhaps DX Exchange contributed a few million of that on a marginal basis? Interesting the FD walked. Suggests poor cost/forecast control was really the heart of it?Anyone got a view on the size of the Passport Office contract? It forms part of DX Secure which was £43m revenue in 2013. So what, £15-25m? Assuming similar margin then that's upto £2m EBITDA?mrbridgeruk - 22 Nov 2016 - 07:03 - 1292 of 1348 - 0DX, the independent parcels, mail and logistics operator, announces the outcome of the tender process for the contract with Her Majesty's Passport Office ("HMPO") and provides an update on current trading, including its planning appeal and revised proposal for a new distribution centre in the West Midlands.Following the conclusion of the tender process for the Home Office contract covering secure delivery services for HMPO, UK Visas and Immigration, National Crime Agency and General Register Office, the Company has been notified that it has been provisionally awarded the contract, which remains subject only to the finalisation of documentation. The contract is for an initial two year period and may be extended by up to two years.Trading conditions over the first half of the financial year have remained challenging and there has been margin pressure mainly resulting from a change in revenue mix. Nonetheless, with a number of major new contracts due to commence and an encouraging pipeline of new business opportunities under active negotiation, management remains focused on meeting its existing expectations for the full year.The Company's planning appeal and revised application to develop a new central hub in the West Midlands remains under consideration by the local authority and DX now expects a decision by mid-February. A further update on this will be provided in due course.Baticle - 22 Nov 2016 - 07:11 - 1293 of 1348 - 1Its Great News that they've kept the contract if only a testament to the fact that they can and have the ability to win business, this hopefully should bode well for the future and subsequently the share price.Imgoingallin - 22 Nov 2016 - 07:30 - 1294 of 1348 - 2shows they've performed well in HMPO's eyes over the course of the last contract. The only way has got to be up today. :)Skinny - 22 Nov 2016 - 10:30 - 1295 of 1348 - 0Numis Under Review 19.50 - - Under Reviewtuftymatt - 22 Nov 2016 - 10:37 - 1296 of 1348 - 0Yes it's good news for DX and it's holders as it keeps things stable in the long standing part of the business.Smart move by the CEO to hide some negatives in amongst the positive as alone they may be viewed as more damaging then when mixed with a big positive.speedsgh - 22 Nov 2016 - 11:15 - 1297 of 1348 - 0DX (Group) PLC Successful HMPO tender improves forecast certainty â€" Zeus Capital - DX (Group) PLC (LON:DX) has confirmed that it has won the retendering of the HMPO contract. We understand that it was a highly competitive process so retaining the contract is especially pleasing and provides greater confidence looking forward. We leave forecasts unchanged but with materially increased certainty on being achieved. The successful retender highlights that the quality of service DX has delivered over the previous contract periods has been respected. The only disappointment in today’s statement is the announcement that the decision on the resubmission of planning permission for the central hub has been delayed until mid-February. Today’s announcement de-risks FY17 and FY18 earnings and net debt forecasts and highlights the attractiveness of the prospective 2.5p dividend in each year. We leave forecasts unchanged meaning DX is trading on just 3.6x FY17 earnings and yielding c.14% on last night’s 17.75p closing price. A conservative 7x short term recovery multiple would equate to a 35p share price offering 97% upside, this would still only equate to 4.0x EV/EBITDA.* Passport contract importance greater than its size â€" In annual Group revenue terms the contract is worth a relatively small c. £20m â€" £25m but we believe the volume it provides for the important Secure division underpin the better economics of this area relative to other areas of the business. The Secure business grew at c.9.0% last year and should continue to grow strongly on the strength of its service offering and retaining HMPO volumes will underpin its economics. We understand it was a very competitive process and to win it shows the strength of DX’s Secure offering. The only material change would appear to be the movement in length from 3+1 year contract term to a 2+2 year.* Improved visibility in FY17 â€" Whilst we don’t ignore the intense competition in all areas of the deliveries market, the HMPO tender win materially increases the certainty of achieving FY17 PBT estimate of £12.2m. In turn, this would increase certainty on our assumptions of net debt falling to just c.0.3x EBITDA. With this low level of gearing it increases the attractiveness of the 2.5p dividend which equates to a 14% yield and is twice covered by earnings. Further confidence across the forecast period will be taken should Exchange experience a benign renewals season in January, albeit with the April renewal period still to come before the period end.* Valuation â€" Placing a recovery multiple of 7x on FY17 earnings would equate to a DX (Group) PLC share price of 35p, offering c.97% upside. Arguably, this multiple is supported by the greater certainty today’s announcement provides to earnings. The shares have recently gone ex-dividend 1.5p (10th Nov) leading to a 1.75p fall to 17.75p. At this level the prospective yield of c.14.0% is appealing on a balance sheet with little debt as net debt declines to just 0.3x EBITDA.s34icknote - 22 Nov 2016 - 13:13 - 1298 of 1348 - 0Happy days In at 17.13 and have the div to come ?Triad next !>

[reallyrich] 25/12/2016 11:01

Just re read the results in September. Lots to read about each division. Some doing very well some not. Results next February would be the ones to see how they are progressing.

[opodio] 25/12/2016 06:51

Adjusted profit before tax after exceptional items saw the Dividend not covered


net,
i suspect this will fall to 6p on way down to administration with the debt mounting up

[s34icknote] 25/12/2016 01:01

Eps was around 4.9 p so div 2.5 p well covered . If they can manage similar in 2017 then happy daysThe year before was 10 p eps Happy Xmas all and good health Without your health money is nothing Sicknote

[netcurtains] 24/12/2016 17:11

opodio: So assuming the worst and we can buy at 6p.

What do you think it will rise to from that 6p base?

That is what a bottom feeder is trying to do.. Find the bottom and then look for the upside

Assuming 6p where do you see it rising to over 18 months? 20p??

I mean look at the PE ratio at 6p!!!! that would be INSANE!!!!

I was thinking about 12p and rising to 20p over 18 months.. Surely that is more realistic?

[opodio] 24/12/2016 16:12

Dividend sure to be CANCELLED.

Dividend was uncovered by Earnings last year,
]
AND

It has debt of £10m now up from £2m debt a year ago
]
AND

Just look at the intangibles of £113m on total balance sheet of £133m, thats all hot air. Puffery. They need to write it down cos the assets are generating less free cash.

The big risk is that DX’s most profitable business, DX Exchange, appears to be in decline. DX Exchange provides a secure mail service for lawyers and businesses. Demand is being rapidly eroded by email.Dividend is all that is holding the share price aloft, with out that this is 6p

[netcurtains] 24/12/2016 15:06

Sorry reallyrich, I know nothing about the company at all. I wouldn't know how to short if I could. I'm someone that used to be called a "bottom feeder" (looking for companies that have crashed and are now recovering). I was hoping that DX might be one - its an optimistic post - eg I might be a new investor.... The Exchange thing worried be a bit and was hoping investors would know more about it.

[netcurtains] 24/12/2016 13:44

going back to my original source the bit he does not like and cant see it going anywhere is this:



Is the dx-exchange something that is actually working or is it a dead horse?

[netcurtains] 23/12/2016 22:33

thanks guys. cheers.

[s34icknote] 23/12/2016 20:29

They deliver for b q and IKEA Don't think they do post . Maily parcel and passports .Directors bought shed loads back in April at 17 p

[reallyrich] 23/12/2016 18:50

Hi netcurtians your comments are absurd. How can you send a parcel or delivery by email?

[dlku] 23/12/2016 18:16

Hopeful that the dividend gets slashed That would send this to 5p
Another pup dumped on the market by VC sellers

[netcurtains] 23/12/2016 18:09

Someone was telling me that EMAIL gets rid of a lot of the use for DX. Whereas people still use Royal Mail for greeting cards etc.

Is that true? Has the market for DX evaporated?

[s34icknote] 23/12/2016 14:55

Strange trades again 7 in 7 seconds

[s34icknote] 23/12/2016 12:11

Looking back gartmore have increased from 5 to 6 percent

[s34icknote] 23/12/2016 12:09

Gary more holding news Have they increased or decreased ?

[speedsgh] 22/12/2016 15:30

From Interims Results of Chelverton Small Companies Dividend Trust (SDV), who have a pretty good track record...



In the last six months we have increased our investment in seventeen of our existing holdings, taking advantage of lower share prices, including Alumasc Group, Belvoir Lettings, Braemar Shipping Services, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Brown (N) Group, Centaur Media, DX Group, Foxtons Group, Galliford Try, Gattaca, Go-Ahead Group, Huntsworth, Low and Bonar, Martin McColls Retail Group, Regional REIT, RTC Group and St Ives...

[aleman] 21/12/2016 18:15

I would have thought, with all Brexit legal wrangling and online sales booming, that volumes might be okay but that is just wild guessing. The problem is probably more on the cost side. The recent rises in unemployment and 520 redundancies at DHL could help with driver shortages but the ongoing strong rise in online deliveries might counter that

It's an interesting thought that margins might improve if the economy cooled and driver shortages eased. Christmas deep discount sales at bricks and mortar retailers have started very early this year while Waitrose and John Lewis have reported weak sales last week - retail slowdown or just a deceptive marketing ploy?

[s34icknote] 21/12/2016 18:00

I think the profit warning is already in the price Eps forecast 5p div 2.5 p

[albanyvillas] 19/12/2016 22:01

DX usually has a profit warning at this time of year

[s34icknote] 19/12/2016 15:56

Weird trading today ?Strange spread