Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[bisiboy] 21/2/2021 17:59

looks like the cazoo holding in septemnber was valued at 17.5 m
if so its probably now circa 80m

[the white house] 17/2/2021 11:12

Portfolio update March 2 last year, wonder if similar this year?Also noted online cosmetic co. Agora climbing high in the Apple shopping charts online to 26, above H&M, Tesco and ASDA so gaining a serious amount of traction. Expect this to jump into the high flyers chart along with FreetradeThe inroads/expansion of some within the portfolio of companies is astonishing

[cordwainer] 15/2/2021 14:36

Only got into FIPP very recently, smaller position. Clearly not in the same league as GROW, but I'm hopeful that several items in the portfolio are sufficiently advanced to push the risk to the upside, and with the share price fairly close to current NAV too, and management strengthened last year with a software guy. Meanwhile, the website is claiming that half a dozen named companies are nearing 'inflection points' on its investment case page. re universities, Not unusual to see founders of many of the investee companies are professors, doctors etc its just goes with this kind of VC territory I expect; mcap implies more concentrated portfolio of much smaller firms and therefore higher risk than GROW.

[w13ken] 15/2/2021 09:18

Hi Cordwainer, I copied the final part of the sentence directly from the Draper website but I'm perfectly prepared to accept it may be saying that on a technical point due to the companies it owns.

FIPP looks interesting - correct me if I'm wrong - but seems to only partner with universities and only has a market cap of £33m after more than 10 years on the stock market. It also looks like it is down from most points in the last 3 years so doesn't seem to have anything like the momentum of GROW. Do you see a good future for FIPP?

[cordwainer] 15/2/2021 07:33

^ actually, I also hold Frontier IP Group (FIPP) which should probably be also considered as a listed, tech-focused venture capital firm.

[pugugly] 14/2/2021 16:16

W13Ken - Many thanks for links and opinion - Now to get on with the DD.

[w13ken] 14/2/2021 15:52

Hi Pugugly, I don't believe Draper Esprit to be overvalued at present, considering the assets that they own and the proven record that the team have in identifying strong future companies at an early stage. They also only invest in less than 1% of the companies that approach them (10-20 of the 2500 approx) each year.

Take a look at this detailed article from the Edison Group. It's long but in the Appendix you'll see how well their early investments have fared so far and their freedom to hold companies for as long as they want is working well for them. The top 5 companies have over £190m profit earmarked based on peer valuations and IPOs are expected to ramp up from this year.



Also, over on Simply Wall Street, based on their Discounted Cash Flow model for valuing companies, Draper's fair value is currently £15.51 and shows the current share price as 47.4% undervalued.

Do your own research of course and good luck!

[pugugly] 13/2/2021 20:25

Congratulations to all invested here - Has this fund still got legs or is it now potentailly over valued?

PERSONAL MARKER AT 816P


Draper Esprit is an Aim-listed venture capital company which provides exposure to 'early-stage' businesses to which private investors have less access.

MOS TODAY "Last year it raised £110million, but also made £18million from the sale of UK fintech Transferwise.

Its portfolio encompasses names like Cazoo, a used car platform, Trustpilot, the consumer reviews website and UiPath, a robotics software business.

The 41 per cent jump in Draper Esprit shares over the past year is based on the belief that this Aim star has spotted some of tomorrow's stars.

This is inspiring, but while reaching for the stars raises the spirits, a fall to earth can be painful."

[bamboo2] 12/2/2021 20:16

Ken, Well done for starting at those levels.
That looks a similar performance over the year to that of IPO.

Due to his funds redemptions a few years ago, Woodford caused both GROW and IPO share price weakness, but IPO's was much later on in the debacle, and the damage was far more deeply felt. A contagion led to Invesco and Lansdowne also becoming forced sellers. That means nearly 50% of the co has changed hands in the last 16 months.

I have been trading IPO and it's likely I'll do the same here. Trading uptrends is a great exercise imo. Gla

[w13ken] 12/2/2021 14:49

Bamboo, coincidentally I've held GROW for 1 year from today. Bought at 575 then, 440 back in May and then steadily topped up since then so it's done very well as a LTH.

Prior to topping up the ISA in April I might even trade this one a bit but the prospects are even better than Team17's.

[bamboo2] 12/2/2021 09:43

Hi Ken, Sorry, I only just saw your message.

I try to keep active! :-)

I've always liked these type of Tomorrow's World type investments. I hold IPGroup and run the BB on here in an attempt to keep abreast of developments! It was through there that I read the Edison info and other info on GROW supplied by posters P1nkfish and Bottomfisher.

[cordwainer] 12/2/2021 06:54

SVM duo predict active year for Draper Esprit:

SVM UK Growth duo Margaret Lawson and Colin McLean believe Draper Esprit (GROW) will see positive activity in its portfolio of unlisted companies this year.

The Citywire A-rated managers of the £176m fund said the £1bn investment company, which backs early-stage growth companies with a focus on technology, has ‘greater exposure to Europe’ than some of its UK peers, helping to diversify risk.

‘Draper now sees a significant opportunity to invest in the growing European venture capital market, with an accelerated shift to digital, helped by Covid-19,’ said the managers in their latest fund factsheet.

‘We believe that 2021 will bring more activity in Draper’s portfolio; uplifts in funding rounds and initial public offering. More growth in growing innovative businesses is now happening in private markets and Draper Esprit offers an opportunity to participate in this.’

The trust trades at a premium to its historic net asset value but the SVM managers added that there is ‘potential for uplift and many portfolio companies are growing strongly’.

Shares in the listed fund closed down 0.7%, or 6p, at 812p yesterday, but are up about 50% over the last year.

[brucek1812] 10/2/2021 19:06

Agreed. It's a rerating, isn't it? Also a reflection that graphcore valuation will continue to rise and it will IPO within next two years. And portfolio looks strong which will be reflected in NAV uptick through this year.

[w13ken] 10/2/2021 18:41

So much to absorb in the Edison doc but one of the most interesting parts is the Appendix where portfolio valuations are given in detail. Just the top 5 give an indication on the quality of Draper's company selection and the potential profits when they choose the right investment. I make this £190.8m profit:

Trustpilot: Initial investment: £29.7m; peer-based valuation £80.9m
Graphcore: £13.7m ==> £80.5m
UiPath: £10.3m ==> £36.7m
RavenPack: £7.5m ==> £31.9m
M-Files: £5.0m ==> £27.0m

[brexitplus] 10/2/2021 15:18

Why the jump. I can't see any news.

[p1nkfish] 10/2/2021 11:42

no probs. been a good one for me if somewhat voltaile (wrong type of volatility) for the early period.

[steve3sandal] 05/2/2021 21:47

Edison is paid for research but everything helps.

[mach100] 05/2/2021 20:39

Edison have had their lightbulb moment it seems.

[cordwainer] 04/2/2021 13:57

I already read it as I also hold IPO. Looks like Trustpilot could be the next uplift for 2021, though unlikely as much as UiPath. Hard to find anything negative in that report. 10% of investee companies become write-offs, most others multi-baggers. Value gap between US and Europe funding rounds interesting, also that the UK is way ahead of the pack in terms of unicorns across Europe.

[elgordo] 04/2/2021 09:47

With thanks to Bottomfisher who posted this on the IPO board, Edison Research yesterday published a comprehensive report on Draper Esprit (GROW).

[energeticbacker] 03/2/2021 10:40

Featured in Investor's Champion update –

For those interested in getting exposure to private, high growth companies, Draper Esprit is an interesting option. Although, unfortunately the market has evidently got excited about its positioning, with the shares now trading at a 25% premium to the September NAV. However, with more portfolio uplifts like UiPath, that premium would appear to be justified...in the current excitable market!

[the white house] 02/2/2021 21:10

Good shout, your call for the year takes the prize 4 days later...spread bet on that would have paid handsomely

[cordwainer] 02/2/2021 13:36

That's a wow factor. Likely to be more to come from UiPath. Not certain of the logic of an IPO tbh from main stakeholders point of view, given the apparent ease of fundraising from keen private equity investors anyway. Perhaps someone with more insight could point out the relative advantages / disadvantages.

[rik shaw] 02/2/2021 07:50

'UiPath

Draper Esprit notes yesterday's announcement from UiPath Inc., the robotic process automation software business, of its successful $750 million fundraising round at a $35 billion valuation

Based on the valuation implied by the fundraising, Draper Esprit's gross fair value (before carry deductions) is approximately GBP115 million (using a GBP/USD 1.37 exchange rate). This is an uplift of GBP78 million to the September 2020 fair value of GBP37 million.'