Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 01/11/2023 10:49

Yes and remember that GROW hold these positions alongside very sophisticated venture capital investors with long track records, so they're not going to be buying any old rubbish with zero value! Agree that public equity market valuations can be even more irrational than private investments, as they are more prone to greed/fear and subject to all sorts of momentum effects and distortions.

[rambutan2] 31/10/2023 22:17

Near zero, I don't think so!
Most companies are unlisted, a stock mkt listing is not needed to value them.
What is so great about stock mkt valuations? Mr Mkt tends to the manic, too much up and too much down.
Many tech companies are bought before they've made a profit.
The only price that really matters is the exit price.
And it's exits that GROW really needs, at an uplift, both to restore some confidence and to get some cash and reduce the the debt which it was stupid enough to draw down.
The current huge discount offers a large margin of safety for nav reductions, which i'm sure will come.

[riverman77] 31/10/2023 21:54

They have a good track record of selling positions well above book value so very much doubt the aggregate value is anyway near zero (although there might be some individual positions which are worth zero). The bigger worry is they could be close to running out of cash, and of course the underlying companies are all cash hungry, so suspect they may need to do an equity raise at some point.

[popit] 31/10/2023 21:10

What is the actual value here of all of these unlisted investments?

Nobody really knows because they are not listed on any stock market

Graphcore and all of the other investments do not even make any profits

So it is quite possible that the total actual value here is near to zero

[catabrit] 26/10/2023 07:52

The chart of this thing stinks. I have no idea when it turns, if it ever does. But at such a depressed multiple to book, it is hard to envisage a scenario whereby you lose money if you hold your nerve. Personally I hope management wave the white flag and liquidate but they won’t. I hate that there is no yield but the discount probably compensates for that over time. Let’s see! I nibbled yesterday after holding on and off during the course of the last 12-months and trading my gains (something I seldom do and don’t do that well so not a brag).

[w13ken] 24/10/2023 20:45

Lovely turn of phrase pug :)

[pugugly] 24/10/2023 12:59

Liontrust bought a position - Given their diabolical performance not sure if a plus signal or just 2 drunks holding each other up.

[columbarius] 10/10/2023 20:31

They look over-extended. The estimated 20m cash requirement of the portfolio companies during the current fy is conveniently (suspiciously?) below the 23m cash they had in hand, given last year’s requirement was 138m! Reading between the lines, it’s what the portfolio companies will be getting, not what they will need, and the shortage of cash may lead to failures or dilutive third party funding on poor terms as GROWs negotiating position is weak. They’ve boosted cash by 14m with an asset sale but it’s not much given annual losses at an operational level of about 10m, due mainly to loan interest (fund management revenues just about cover admin costs).
In order to adequately fund their existing portfolio should they:
Take on more debt? (The market clearly doesn’t like the risk associated with the 90m debt they’ve got, due for repayment in September 2025). That would be some gamble.
Realise cash from portfolio companies? (Market currently against them and would they be viewed as fire sales?)
Issue more paper? (Doesn’t seem plausible given the current discount to NAV unless they can dress it up with a takeover or merger).
They’re in a bind and management will need to earn their big bucks over the next 2 years.

[hastings] 25/9/2023 12:24

Anyone have an inkling as to what GROW's stake is in Evonetix please?

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 11:39

Doesn't necessarily tell you anything - there are countless funds and companies that are trading well below their realisable values (even using prudent assumptions). Impossible say which will ultimately receive bids, but can't write off those that haven't so far.

[spectoacc] 25/9/2023 11:21

And the fact that no one is doing that tells you......

[riverman77] 25/9/2023 10:39

Yes at a 70% discount to NAV the margin for error is colossal. Someone could potentially buy GROW at 30% premium to current share price, liquidate the fund at say 20% discount to current valuations, and still see almost 100% upside.

[salpara111] 25/9/2023 10:21

Logic says that someone with deep pockets should buy them and then just liquidate the portfolio for a huge return....assuming the NAV is realistic!

[waterfall city] 23/9/2023 14:02

I would say its a combination of their debt and future portfolio funding requirements make it higher risk.cash is king in this environment in the absence of trade sales.

[cordwainer] 22/9/2023 18:24

Citiwire citing that GROW is on a 70% discount to nav as of yesterday.
If 50% was a bargain, 70% is worrying.

[cordwainer] 15/9/2023 00:46

"Investors Are Warming Up to Private Markets, BlackRock’s Conway Says
Conway’s clients allocate up to 50% to private markets
Asset manager revamped its private asset leadership in May

September 14, 2023 at 10:21 PM GMT+1
BlackRock Inc.’s Edwin Conway says big money clients are snapping up private investments for their portfolios.

Institutional clients are allocating anywhere from 20% to 50% of their portfolios to private markets, the global head of equity private markets told Bloomberg Television Thursday. Interest on the wealth side is “still in its infancy” but there has been a “tremendous amount of demand and growth,” with those clients allocating 2% to 5%..."

[cousinit] 31/8/2023 14:38

AVI certainly try to avoid value traps these days. Not sure if they are part of it but definitely changes at PEY since they appeared on the register (although 10% there rather than 4.5% here)

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 11:15

Edit '...' rather than (?). It wasn't a question but a comment - although thoughts are welcome after yesterdays TR1

[kelster50] 31/8/2023 11:07

Interesting to see that AVI are increasing their position as they usually invest in stock where the nav is undervalued...

[johnrxx99] 25/8/2023 07:35

Ups and downs are so frustrating at the moment. Make a few bob one day then loose it the next.

I've given up thinking about how long VC and GROW in particular will take to settle. I wish 360p was my break even, I'm about 500p. Hey Ho.

[cordwainer] 24/8/2023 15:58

picked up a few more at 221p earlier this week but probably need about 360p to break even overall.
the market's flip-flopping daily anxiety over interest rates surely has to get more settled eventually ..?
and even if rates are imminently plateauing, how long for our pe and vc corner of the market to narrow the discounts to 20-30% ? at best maybe a few more months with a macroeconomic 'soft landing' or maybe 2-3 years otherwise.
just one of those useless posts from a frustrated holder, sorry.

[mwj1959] 22/8/2023 15:39

Molten Ventures had just over 23m shares according to 2022 Annual Report.

[mallorca 9] 22/8/2023 09:56

Can anybody tell me how many shares Molten have in Trustpilot ?

[cordwainer] 31/7/2023 09:53

Starting to see more positive vibes in the PE space regarding valuations and IPO prospects. My hopes for a rerating are brought forward slightly.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2023 09:46

Thanks riverman77