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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Martens Plc | DOCS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35 | 1.89% | 72.70 | 16:35:03 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.05 | 70.05 | 74.40 | 72.70 | 71.35 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL RETAILERS |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.0156 | 04/01/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 02/02/2024 |
| 01/06/2023 | Final | GBP | 0.0428 | 08/06/2023 | 09/06/2023 | 18/07/2023 |
| 24/11/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.0156 | 05/01/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 03/02/2023 |
| 01/06/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.0428 | 09/06/2022 | 10/06/2022 | 19/07/2022 |
| 09/12/2021 | Interim | GBP | 0.0122 | 13/01/2022 | 14/01/2022 | 04/02/2022 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 18/4/2024 09:00 by woozle1 It was a strange warning and looked like an attempt to kitchen sink all the bad news for the new CEO (certainly any incoming CEO would not want to be landed with the outgoing CEO's errors). A comment in the Times was interesting, describing Kenny Wilson as starstruck by the US and hence the over-expansion.The facts are EMEA and APAC,(the latter is the largest market for shoes globally) are doing well. Japan is a good market for DTC because such a large proportion of the population lives in the largest cities and winters are cold. I expect Docs to continue to do well there. The US is not because wholesalers (read dept stores) are not ordering. It seems strange, therefore, that they loaded up with even more new stock. It may be that Docs was already committed to these orders and could not avoid this issue. Or that there is not a big market for boots on the West Coast (see below). In the 2024 H1 the company said "Our inventory is too high and will now right size through FY25". Well, that statement looks wide of the mark. Most branded products rely on some form of wholesale in the US as it is not feasible to cover the smaller metros economically. That's a simple fact of doing business in the US and even companies like GAW make a very large proportion of their sales through this channel. The US is the largest economy as measured by GDP per capita. However, the decision to over-expand on the West Coast looks like a mistake and that the LA DC was poorly conceived. Warmer temps will dull the appetite for heavier boots and maybe they are selling more sandals there. I suspect this DC is draining the US performance and I would not be surprised if it shut down. Geography may be a dull word to brand consultants but it matters. I would hope that Permira makes this argument. I own from £1 and will buy more. I think this is a relevant brand that has been around a long time (unlike Super Dry) and so long as the company continues to nurture it (and not indulge in massive discounting) I see no reason that it can not recover. And the balance sheet is in reasonable shape and should allow them to ride out this patch. |
Posted at 18/4/2024 02:22 by papillon free stock charts from uk.advfn.comDOCS log chart. Great way for long term holders to lose money! |
Posted at 17/4/2024 11:50 by itisonlymoney darrin, thanks for the detail on the new ceo. Btw, does that look like the profile for a good fashion brand ceo? Big salary maybe. I have doubts. a senior director for apple retail - he's had lots of people around him to generate any success there. snr directors like to take all the credit if things go well, but out on their own, they often fail, so he's an unknown quantity at this point. does anyone here know how he did at wolf olins?huckers, I've asked the same question. my instinct atm is that this fifth profit warning and the change of leadership (a necessary move) with an untested ceo who has apparently been on the board (as a non-exec rather than ops management) throughout this car crash, creates massive uncertainty on top of the forecast for much lower profits. there's nothing but shifting sand under the strategy and the forecasts, plus the global environment does not look good - major european war which it looks like russia will now win, and the prospect of a middle eastern war. Docs has a high valuation based on its brand appeal but the retail market is not validating that appeal by buying the boots in huge numbers, so i think the share price has to reflect actual profit without a brand premium. that's my thinking and that leads me to guess that the share price is going steadily down for sometime now. i haven't got the confidence in that prediction to actually short the shares though, because there's no telling when a bid for the company could come. right now i'm watching. if the share price gets to 30p, i will almost certainly be a buyer. |
Posted at 16/4/2024 22:02 by darrin1471 "new ceo seems to have been in charge of marketing"Ije has only been the Chief Brand Officer since February. An independent non executive at DOCS since the IPO. A senior director of Apple retail for the last 6 years (40 stores) 11 years at brand consultancy agency Wolff Olins. CEO for 3 years. 150 employees. Trained as an architect in Nigeria and the US. The problems at DOCS appear to go beyond the "brand". Strategy (DTC), stock control and distribution to name a few. Far to many risks and variables for me to invest |
Posted at 16/4/2024 13:25 by essentialinvestor As mentioned previously, gearing up the balance sheet (buy backs/aggressive store expansion) was unlikely to end wellgiven recent trading updates. I could understand the rationale IF sales were powering ahead, but DOCS had already suffered multiple set backs. |
Posted at 08/4/2024 14:31 by woozle1 So comparing the US and UK websites, (i) there is no discounting on core boots in either region and (ii) in the US there are more fashion sale items and more availability.For example, Docs US Men's 144 items are listed at present as being on sale versus 55 in the UK. For women's, in the US 203 items are listed on sale whereas in the UK there are 78 items This would imply that Docs are still working through the stock overhang. |
Posted at 16/2/2024 10:40 by woozle1 We'll know if the worm has turned when the US wholesalers start restocking. According to the Co, 3rd party inventory levels are low but they now have a warehousing system that can now deliver. One focus for the Docs in 24/25 is on destocking (cash positions tend to improve with positive w/c businesses) and we should see an improvement in cash."Given the high proportion of continuity products we sell, with four out of five pairs being black and having a strong product margin structure, we have minimal markdown risk below cost. Inventory levels are higher than optimal and we plan to right-size inventory through the course of FY25." One observation is they still have quite a few job vacancies in the US and wondering if this could be a potential headwind. This quote from Marketing Weekly also sheds more light on the US problems: "In the US, the brand has hired a new marketing vice-president with the goal of refocusing on the boots business in mind. While the shoes and sandals businesses are growing faster than boots, Dr Martens remains primarily a boot brand." “As the number one brand in boots, our job is to keep boots relevant. Our European teams and our Japanese teams did that well; our American team didn’t,” he said. “We’ve got to learn from that." Similar to GAW in the US which got carried away with Lord of the Rings (read fashionable sandals) and forgot to focus on the main Warhammer 40k and Warhammer Fantasy franchises (read boots). If DOCS can address this issue then there is no reason the shares should do very well. DYOR |
Posted at 15/2/2024 14:01 by itisonlymoney Being short is very dangerous on a big brand with a market cap like this. news of a bid for DOCS could see it open 50% up. foreign economies seem to have a lot more money than ours. the docs i want are sold out not just in my size. things seem to be looking up. profit warnings come in threes. i think they're done here. recovery next. i think you know all of this deep down, which is why you keep posting negatives. |
Posted at 26/1/2024 13:46 by woozle1 The issue of wholesale or 3rd party retailers is an interesting point, in particular in the US.Reducing the wholesale channel is a good thing as it gives DOCS greater control over pricing and discounting and will almost certainly result in a drop in revenues and profitability in the short term. The US requires a dual strategy (DTC and 3rd party) because the economics of its stores only stack up in the major metro areas. Physical shoe retailing is also a tough gig as it requires a large range and a lot of dead space for stocking. I suspect that DOCS is tightening up on the terms of trade and dropping accounts that don't sell much. Games Workshop went through a similar process some years ago. It requires nurturing the retailers that do the best job and this is not as easy as it sounds because it means having the right people (i.e. good account managers, good salespeople, and a sound marketing strategy). Foreign companies often struggle to attract good local talent as locals prefer to work for US brands and US companies which means one often gets 2nd and 3rd rate applicants. It's the key reason that UK companies find it so hard in the US and why to get around this problem it's best to buy a US company where you can lock into the entrepreneurial drive of a hungry start-up with high-caliber individuals. The hope here is that Docs is a good enough brand to attract better talent than would usually be the case for a foreign company. I'm pretty sure that this is a much better brand than Super Dry. It has much more cross-generational appeal (in London I see older blokes, middle-aged and young women, and kids wearing these shoes), it's been around much longer and management is investing heavily in it. If you believe that DOCS isn't going away, this is a great entry point. Yes, the peaks will be inlfated fashion but the troughs are supported by a loyal customer base whose identity (see themselves as rebellious and independent thinkers)is tied up with the brand. As ever, DYOR. PSDOCS ceased to be work wear some time ago. |
Posted at 06/1/2024 16:46 by woozle1 We started buying at 110 and have been buying more. We like how they invest in the brand. Not thrilled about discounting but this only happens in the fashion ranges at the edges and there does not appear to be discounting in the core boots (that would be very bad news). It's a global brand and has a long runway.It has similarities with Games Workshop in the sense that there are plenty of kids who buy these when they are young, but then there is a hard core of people (who see themselves as rebellious) who remain brand devotees for life. There is the issue of comfort. It used to take a while to wear them in, which is particularly hard for kids who have worn trainers all their lives. The Airwaves are designed with this in mind. A further similarity with GAW is problems with the US and sorting out the wholesale. It appears that this channel was probably jammed with inventory for the float and that this is taking longer than expected to unwind. That said, it has only recently sorted the warehousing (also a GAW issue). In a recent statement, the company said the wholesale channel was low on stock which should bode well when demand returns. The valuation is also compelling at 4.1x EV/EBITDA, p/e 10, and 6.9% dividend yield (so you are paid to wait!). Also, think that investors are thoroughly fed up after 4 profit warnings in 2023 (well done people who got that right in the Times quiz) and we are reaching a point of maximum revulsion. Some of the stocks that were floated in the pandemic loss of investor sense were rubbish but companies like this and Victorian Plumbing are jewels that will eventually re rate. All that said, the UK market is desperately cheap and it's dragging down stocks like Burberry which is on a similar p/e and 5% yield. So you can take your pick at the moment. I guess that we'll start seeing bid activity from global competitors trading at 50-100% ratings premiums. These are only my thoughts. |
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