Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[adrunkenmarcus] 12/6/2022 10:19

We need DPP to get to free cash flow breakeven to ease concerns about any further dilution. If they can get there and accelerate expansion through improved execution and sub franchising then this business will look much stronger. Current forecasts show a slight deficit on free cash flow in 2022 and then a surplus in 2023, so we may get to the business turning free cash flow positive by end 2022/early 2023 if all goes well.

There are valid criticisms about how DPP was run in the past, however we do need to recognise IMHO that current management have not been running the business that long in the grand scheme of things. And, much of the time they have been in charge, their focus has been on integration and consolidating the merged company. They do need to take actions on pricing and ensuring inflation does not impact them more than it needs to.

[hybrasil] 12/6/2022 08:07

My tuppence worth says the news will be in the main positive.
And once there is profitability the share price will take off

[my retirement fund] 08/6/2022 13:13

any thoughts?

[hybrasil] 07/6/2022 10:02

I’d say about two weeks to the rns

[m_kerr] 21/5/2022 12:46

the best measure of health of a franchise business is the number of new franchises being opened. far from showing any improvement, the number of franchises has substantially reduced in recent years, indicating poor franchise profitability and overall weak operational execution. still after 12 years, no sign of profitability, so losses need to be funded by new equity which will be produced on an ongoing basis to dilute existing shareholders.

IMV the best bet here is to hope for a decent takeover premium from domino's pizza enterprises as under current management this business is going nowhere anytime soon.

[adrunkenmarcus] 21/4/2022 21:27

The shares had been showing strength recently from a position of weakness so maybe people anticipated the results. Even if they are slightly cashflow negative for calendar year 2022 overall, it may well be that they are into positive free cashflow in the second half of the year which could well change sentiment. I do think fear of capital raising is one factor holding them back.

[my retirement fund] 21/4/2022 21:09

Surprised it didn't attract any buying, seems well under the radar

[adrunkenmarcus] 21/4/2022 20:55

I thought it looked reasonable and a recovery of dine-in to 2019 levels will do much as well. They noted 2021 results will be in line and there will be a webinar in June 2022, which I'll look forward to.

[my retirement fund] 21/4/2022 07:46

Positive trading update here, very positive, the take away here: (pardon the pun)

Conformation 2021 is inline, inflationary pressures have been monitored closely and raised prices early to mitigate pressures. Strong sales performance in Q1 2022, with LFL System Sales up 21% over 2021. March 2022 COVID-19 restrictions lifted and seeing further acceleration in sales growth LFL System Sales up 29% in March 2022.

Nice they have been able to help the Ukrainian refugees too!

[my retirement fund] 20/4/2022 16:27

Wonder what effect the Ukraine in-rush could have on business

[my retirement fund] 17/4/2022 13:44

In Poland, people also like to eat out, we won't see the post covid rebound for in the restaurants estate yet, those in this sector of their portfolio can make more profit per store than delivery so 2023 will be the big surprise.

[adrunkenmarcus] 17/4/2022 11:06

Current forecasts are for DPP to be cash flow negative to the tune of about £610,000 in 2022, then positive to £280,000 in 2023.

They are carrying debt to fuel expansion and this masks a forecast increase in EBITDA to about £4.4 million (up 204.5%) in 2022 and about £6.1 million (up 38.6%) in 2023.

It is taking time, however we should get to a point where there is a 'step change' as older stores' losses diminish and move into positive territory. This was a recurring problem when DPP was sub-scale because expansion meant adding newer, loss-making stores to the estate and they racked up huge losses before breaking even. However the proportion of loss-making stores should diminish substantially even if the estate now grows, because we go into 2022-23 with a much larger base.

[hybrasil] 17/4/2022 07:04

I think if next Thursdays rns contains any glimmer of profitability that this thing will take off

[adrunkenmarcus] 13/4/2022 12:59

How do we value a loss making company? Well, forecasts for 2023 revenue are about £37 million and the market cap today is £45 million. Long run it should trade maybe 3x revenues or 4x? If so, 3.5x 2023 revenue forecasts would be £129 million in market cap or a 2.9-fold rise in the share price. And that doesn't allow for growth beyond 2023. :-)

[adrunkenmarcus] 13/4/2022 12:59

How do we value a loss making company? Well, forecasts for 2023 revenue are about £37 million and the market cap today is £45 million. Long run it should trade maybe 3x revenues or 4x? If so, 3.5x 2023 revenue forecasts would be £129 million in market cap or a 2.9-fold rise in the share price. And that doesn't allow for growth beyond 2023. :-)

[my retirement fund] 13/4/2022 12:38

I agree, it is stupidly cheap and well below the radar of most would be investors.

[adrunkenmarcus] 13/4/2022 11:49

A bounce would be nice but, on the other hand, I think it's cheap at these prices so gives me chance to top up while it's low. I'd love it to stay at 7p and then maybe hit 255p in 2030!

[hybrasil] 13/4/2022 11:32

I reckon this is going to really bounce come the 21st april

[my retirement fund] 05/4/2022 20:16

Its an interesting appointment to say the least.

[hybrasil] 05/4/2022 18:20

It’s extremely positive to see Peter furlong join this board.

[hybrasil] 16/3/2022 21:56

Colum butlers purchase put it up!

[hybrasil] 15/3/2022 09:27

Mr Putin being 25km away is obviously having an effect on the price

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2022 20:57

Time? What time for them to come up with other lame excuses too? I just think it's unforgivable not to pass on your costs to your customers in good time. If it really is true then clearly there are systemic flaws in the accounting systems because you need to be able to price and pitch your food offering almost instantaneously not annually, if you don't you can rest assured your competitors will! The result is that you will be out of business!

[hybrasil] 17/1/2022 20:30

I don’t think clueless or incompetent applies to current management.

Business isn’t easy but I think you just have to get it time

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2022 09:08

Well there's plenty of upside and opportunity here and when the store network reopens its sit in restaurant side should add massively in 2022. The problem seems that they have failed to pass on increased costs to the customers in time. There really is no excuse for this because these inflationary supply issues have been in the pipeline for at least 5 full quarters now. So you have to question how fit the management really are. I'm afraid my confidence in them for missing this is such a basic error that you have to think they may well be clueless and incompetent.