Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[matt123d] 14/1/2020 11:00

Looks as though EVE has a greater probability of getting to zero.

[cantrememberthis2] 14/1/2020 10:09

Bank profit? Easy 1x Bagger all over it EVE SLEEP Cash in Bank higher than Market Cap Just 6 days time for results HTTPS://mobile.twitter.com/DeepValueHunte1/status/1214497603364282370

[parvez] 14/1/2020 10:09

thanks, matt. agree with you. last i bought these was nearer 50p i think and have topped up circa 6p today. will keep a close eye...

[matt123d] 14/1/2020 09:25

First higher high on a quarterly basis since 2018 so yes. Added a few below 6p and will look to add further if the fresh demand continues to move the price higher.

[parvez] 14/1/2020 09:05

Chart wise is today a turning point? Anyone any thoughts please?

[adrunkenmarcus] 20/10/2019 15:14

You highlight the state of the balance sheet and I agree it's certainly not good compared to a few years back. In 2021, net borrowing is forecast to be down to 1.5 times EBITDA. However, that's still way above 2017 levels and, back in 2015, this company had net cash! The forecast free cash flow yield on DOM for 2021 is 5.9 percent, which is quite tempting. Even today, ROCE, CROIC and EBIT margin are good compared to most companies but there's scope to get them much better. Let's see who the new CEO is and what they do. Best wishes, Mark.

[gabsterx] 20/10/2019 11:30

Markus, I agree. DOM has been borrowing to buy back expensive shares, expand into international markets now written off, and grow dividends. Now their balance sheet looks horrible and they have negative equity. They need to resolve the disputes with the franchisees asap, hopefully the new CEO will add a better sense of direction then trial-and-error of the past few years.

[adrunkenmarcus] 20/10/2019 10:37

Gabster, I think DOM's recent capital allocation has been bad and they bought back so many shares at much higher prices than today. It'll be good to see what happens with Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, etc. as they exit those businesses. In the short term it'll remove losses for DOM and I think there's still a lot of growth to come in their core UK and Ireland market, however it does raise the question of long term growth and whether DOM will turn more quickly into a slower growth, cash generative company with a bigger dividend. I think there is a benefit to DPP in that it is focused on a particular market and they seem to have made better progress.

[adrunkenmarcus] 20/10/2019 10:33

There's a trading update due in December 2019. If they can show they have met or exceeded forecasts for 2019 then perhaps sentiment will change somewhat. They really need to show progress and going through 2020-21 with good momentum. Since February 2019, when they raised equity and removed the CEO, there hasn't been any similar bad news and yet the share price has kept sliding. They have made progress on gaining sub-franchisees, 39% of the current estate is now sub-franchised, and like for like sales are rising. Current market cap is less than this year's forecast revenue and only 0.73 times 2020 revenue estimates or .60 times 2021 revenue estimates. It's also less than net asset value. To put it in context, when the share price surged in 2016 it was then at over 10x revenue - the same rating today would give us 50p a share even with more shares in issue than there were then. We have gone from one extreme to the other, yet turnover has grown from £3.8m in 2014 to £12.7m forecast this year and £19.9m in 2021. I can't help wondering if the market fears further equity dilution, however they do have a borrowing facility to tap once DP Polska is cash positive and the group as a whole is forecast to be EBITDA positive in 2022.

[adrunkenmarcus] 17/9/2019 06:53

I'm not sure we'll see much activity. Interim results due 24 September might give some hint as to whether they will hit 2019 'consensus' (whatever that's worth) and what is happening on the new CEO front.

[sbb1x] 11/9/2019 18:45

Only 2 trades today...

[sbb1x] 05/9/2019 22:31

New low of 5.50p been waiting for bottom to be shown for a while.

[gabsterx] 23/8/2019 07:33

Thanks Marcus for the valuable insight, do you see a similar situation happening in Norway, Sweden where Domino's seem to be struggling to establish the brand? It seems that DOM has destroyed its balance sheet in the hopes of international expansion, management's guidance is not very encouraging. I'm leaning towards thinking these are short term pains that have depressed the share price therefore creating a buying opportunity in DOM, let's see who they bring in as new CEO. I don't think he can do any worse than Mr Wilde.

[adrunkenmarcus] 22/8/2019 19:43

DOM? Likewise - since 2010. I think it reflects that it takes time to build a successful business, even with a good brand. DPP is basically a private equity type investment but on the public markets. The oldest stores in the estate are very profitable and above what they modelled originally. It is only in the last few years that DPP has started to get any real scale at all. From memory, they only crossed 30 stores in 2016 or so and it's still below 70, not expecting to exceed 100 until 2022. As such a considerable proportion of the store estate is currently loss-making; we then have the expenses they incurred for the commissary, which was capital investment giving them capacity until 2023; and they need to make better progress on sub-franchisees, so they grow with others' capital. Key will be if they can get to cashflow positive at group level in 2022, without the need for ruinous equity dilution.

[gabsterx] 21/8/2019 06:04

DOM shareholder here, I'm trying to understand DPP from an international new market perspective. From what I've compiled through the annual reports DPP has been making losses each year since 2010, are the losses stemming from the high initial costs of opening new stores, operational inefficiencies, low margins? I'm trying to draw a parallel to what's going on in Sweden and Norway with DOM as losses are increasing and sales not growing. David Wilde (the departing CEO) had said "the UK business was loss making for the first 10 years", so is it expected in a new market to keep losing money for a decade before turning a profit? “There is nothing wrong with the pizza market in Norway, and the competition is beatable,” he said, noting that the UK business had been loss-making for 10 years before turning a profit. This must be before the company went public as the income statement is positive since 1996.

[sbb1x] 12/8/2019 23:02

Just keeps drifting lower and lower 6.1p now

[sabre6] 15/6/2019 08:40

Someone seems to be accumulating stock!

[sabre6] 15/5/2019 08:12

Why the rise in SP

[the ghost who walks] 08/5/2019 06:06

Completely

[purple11] 04/5/2019 21:24

These stocks are just used as financing tools to create wealth for directors and ppl who control the business assets.That is why so many AIM stocks eventually trade at 1p.It is just a money raising exercize. Our job is just to correctly call the direction of a stock price.nothing else. wait for a clear uptrend and forget about trying to catch the first fifth of it.that is where all the money is lost in the markets. until the stock is in a clear uptrend stay away.simple.its simply not worth the bother.gl

[the ghost who walks] 04/5/2019 20:46

Value creation is what we need to see

[adrunkenmarcus] 04/5/2019 09:50

It sounded good, didn't it? But I'd like more detail and some data. I am waiting for an announcement of the new CEO (Mr. Shaw leaves end June) and I hope that going forward the company will be very explicit in measuring their progress against the specific store targets they set out at the February 2019 fundraising. They need to progress to a point where the fear of further dilutive capital raisings is removed. I hold a big position, average price mid teens. Best wishes Mark.

[sabre6] 04/5/2019 08:01

Fairly posotive update by the company.

[lbo] 07/4/2019 08:19

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6894251/Major-investor-says-Dominos-Pizza-confrontational-biggest-franchisees.html