Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[adrunkenmarcus] 20/10/2019 11:33

There's a trading update due in December 2019. If they can show they have met or exceeded forecasts for 2019 then perhaps sentiment will change somewhat. They really need to show progress and going through 2020-21 with good momentum.

Since February 2019, when they raised equity and removed the CEO, there hasn't been any similar bad news and yet the share price has kept sliding. They have made progress on gaining sub-franchisees, 39% of the current estate is now sub-franchised, and like for like sales are rising.

Current market cap is less than this year's forecast revenue and only 0.73 times 2020 revenue estimates or .60 times 2021 revenue estimates. It's also less than net asset value. To put it in context, when the share price surged in 2016 it was then at over 10x revenue - the same rating today would give us 50p a share even with more shares in issue than there were then. We have gone from one extreme to the other, yet turnover has grown from £3.8m in 2014 to £12.7m forecast this year and £19.9m in 2021.

I can't help wondering if the market fears further equity dilution, however they do have a borrowing facility to tap once DP Polska is cash positive and the group as a whole is forecast to be EBITDA positive in 2022.

[adrunkenmarcus] 17/9/2019 07:53

I'm not sure we'll see much activity. Interim results due 24 September might give some hint as to whether they will hit 2019 'consensus' (whatever that's worth) and what is happening on the new CEO front.

[sbb1x] 11/9/2019 19:45

Only 2 trades today...

[sbb1x] 05/9/2019 23:31

New low of 5.50p been waiting for bottom to be shown for a while.

[gabsterx] 23/8/2019 08:33

Thanks Marcus for the valuable insight, do you see a similar situation happening in Norway, Sweden where Domino's seem to be struggling to establish the brand? It seems that DOM has destroyed its balance sheet in the hopes of international expansion, management's guidance is not very encouraging.

I'm leaning towards thinking these are short term pains that have depressed the share price therefore creating a buying opportunity in DOM, let's see who they bring in as new CEO. I don't think he can do any worse than Mr Wilde.

[adrunkenmarcus] 22/8/2019 20:43

DOM? Likewise - since 2010.

I think it reflects that it takes time to build a successful business, even with a good brand. DPP is basically a private equity type investment but on the public markets. The oldest stores in the estate are very profitable and above what they modelled originally.

It is only in the last few years that DPP has started to get any real scale at all. From memory, they only crossed 30 stores in 2016 or so and it's still below 70, not expecting to exceed 100 until 2022. As such a considerable proportion of the store estate is currently loss-making; we then have the expenses they incurred for the commissary, which was capital investment giving them capacity until 2023; and they need to make better progress on sub-franchisees, so they grow with others' capital. Key will be if they can get to cashflow positive at group level in 2022, without the need for ruinous equity dilution.

[gabsterx] 21/8/2019 07:04

DOM shareholder here, I'm trying to understand DPP from an international new market perspective. From what I've compiled through the annual reports DPP has been making losses each year since 2010, are the losses stemming from the high initial costs of opening new stores, operational inefficiencies, low margins?

I'm trying to draw a parallel to what's going on in Sweden and Norway with DOM as losses are increasing and sales not growing. David Wilde (the departing CEO) had said "the UK business was loss making for the first 10 years", so is it expected in a new market to keep losing money for a decade before turning a profit?

“There is nothing wrong with the pizza market in Norway, and the competition is beatable,” he said, noting that the UK business had been loss-making for 10 years before turning a profit. This must be before the company went public as the income statement is positive since 1996.

[sbb1x] 13/8/2019 00:02

Just keeps drifting lower and lower 6.1p now

[sabre6] 15/6/2019 09:40

Someone seems to be accumulating stock!

[sabre6] 15/5/2019 09:12

Why the rise in SP

[the ghost who walks] 08/5/2019 07:06

Completely

[purple11] 04/5/2019 22:24

These stocks are just used as financing tools to create wealth for directors and ppl who control the business assets.That is why so many AIM stocks eventually trade at 1p.It is just a money raising exercize.

Our job is just to correctly call the direction of a stock price.nothing else.

wait for a clear uptrend and forget about trying to catch the first fifth of it.that is where all the money is lost in the markets.

until the stock is in a clear uptrend stay away.simple.its simply not worth the bother.gl

[the ghost who walks] 04/5/2019 21:46

Value creation is what we need to see

[adrunkenmarcus] 04/5/2019 10:50

It sounded good, didn't it? But I'd like more detail and some data.

I am waiting for an announcement of the new CEO (Mr. Shaw leaves end June) and I hope that going forward the company will be very explicit in measuring their progress against the specific store targets they set out at the February 2019 fundraising. They need to progress to a point where the fear of further dilutive capital raisings is removed.

I hold a big position, average price mid teens.

Best wishes

Mark.

[sabre6] 04/5/2019 09:01

Fairly posotive update by the company.

[lbo] 07/4/2019 09:19

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6894251/Major-investor-says-Dominos-Pizza-confrontational-biggest-franchisees.html

[lbo] 01/4/2019 08:10

also seem to be questions about Donaldson coming from Fulham shore and the fact he involved in DP Polandhttps://www.investorschampion.com/channel/blog/Fulham-Shore-red-flags

[adrunkenmarcus] 31/3/2019 17:14

I think it is progress towards a substantial business. If it was a 'good' result than the chief executive would not be leaving. They did not raise enough equity initially and then failed to raise more when they could have done in 2016-17 and the company's share price was buoyant. He should not have said in March 2018 that they could get to 145 stores by 2023 without further equity issuance. There have been issues in execution, too, and over-optimism about the pace of the rollout. The UK business was around for 14 years before listing. What they need to do now is shift the mix towards sub-franchisees and get the group to breakeven without further equity issuance.

[lbo] 30/3/2019 06:49

And after all that equity issuance you think going from 0 to 66 stores in 9 years and £12.4m in revenue over 66 stores is a good result? Whats that revenue per store? Also do you know how much money was raised/wasted just to result in a 9 year old £12m turnover loss making company? Do you know what the total losses have been over the 9 years? And do you know what was actually presented at each fundraising yet has failed to have been delivered still 9 years later. Also for such a great business why are so few stores sub-franchised and the rate of sub-franchised per year stores has been falling. What is it they say about fool me once shame on you but fool me twice then shame on me! And lets not forget Peter was paid £163,000 in 2017 and a £38,000 bonus while Mr Jania was paid £118,000 in 2017 and with this including a £32,000 bonus (the group made a £2.6m loss in 2017). And lets not even mention all the options at 0.5p

[adrunkenmarcus] 29/3/2019 21:05

Alternatively, they've grown from 0 stores in 2010 to 66 stores in 2019. And gone from no revenue to £12.4 million revenue. The issue is that early shareholders have not benefited from the growth in the company's market, cap due to the considerable equity issuance.

[bigboyo] 28/3/2019 20:39

There is NO value creation here :

2010 ... Share Price at flotation 50p
2019 ... Share price 8p

QED

[the ghost who walks] 28/3/2019 20:06

The key is to focus on value creation

[lbo] 28/3/2019 06:22

how successful have you been in DPP spouting that for the last year as the share price just kept falling and falling!?https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=22990384&from=934#firstpost