Dp Poland Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 02/11/2017 07:37

Growing a business like this simply does not happen overnight

Put these away and forget about them for 3 years

[a1samu] 27/10/2017 16:26

Yea the wait to fruition of this one is just too long.

Cannot blaim the directors, who seem to do all the right things.

This is just unlikely to turn profits and dividends for years yet and in the meantime there will be no returns to punters like me.

[a1samu] 27/10/2017 09:55

This share continues to be manipulated by the market makers, for on current prospects it is over valued at 30p, let alone the current price.

The directors can well afford to buy at any silly price out of their inflated wages.

It is the ordinary punter hoping for a quick turn who keeps on being strapped for years, with minimal prospects.

[lbo] 22/9/2017 07:48

EBITDA of 8.3 million pounds for their first half is a lot better then then the EBITDA losses that DP Poland just posted again

[stefanzygmunt] 21/9/2017 18:15

LBO, early days for DPEUR and not looking too good at the moment, be interesting to see how it pans out. DPP is doing nothing wrong at the moment and is looking an exceptional long term investment. Big emphasis from them on 'critical mass' lets see how things go when they begin tv advertising. Some directors have put their money where their mouth is here, very re-assuring.

[haroldthegreat] 20/9/2017 10:37

Very quiet board. Looks like on plan .interesting that an ex manager has decided to purchase 2 units. having worked on the inside he would have the best idea of if a franchise was a viable proposition. Hopefully it will get back to previous highs in time..
By now the company should have refined the menu to suit polish tastes. Have they introduced a vodka flavour ? At a stock spirits presentation they stated poles like a vodka on the way to work. I checked this out with a few polish friends and they confirmed it was true.
If a vodka topped pizza appears I want a royalty on each one. Royalty is not a topping !

[stefanzygmunt] 19/9/2017 08:27

Bigboyo like a bad smell, you're back, thought you weren't coming back until March!!!
Thank you for your wisdom but it won't bring the price down, you've missed out so go and deramp another share. Bye

[bigboyo] 18/9/2017 22:57

Thanks Maiken,

Updated table for half 1 2017 and this shows cash outflow of £2.7 million in 6 months and will probably be greater than £5 million for the full year to 31 December 2017.

In effect the cash raise of £5 million this June will disappear in one year, and the cash figure at 31 December 2017 will probably be around £6 million only (i.e. less than the start figure for the year despite the £ 5million cash raise).

I expect a substantial cash raising exercise in early 2018.



2017* is half year only

Year to dec ...........2011 -2012 -2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
start cash ............5059 --873 10929 7297 4466 6987 6308
end cash ...............873 10929 -7297 4466 6987 6308 8816
cash raised ..............0 13161 ----0 ---0 5205 3055 5260
Spent cash ............4186 -3105 -3632 2831 2684 3734 2698
Stores open .............12 ---15 ---17 --18 --24 --39 --44
Loss per store ........ 349 --207 --214 -157 -112 --96 --61

[davep4] 18/9/2017 09:26

From the results I noted the follow statement:

We are on track to finish the year with 50+ stores and we have our commissaries and supply chain in place to service c.150 stores, comfortably more than our intermediate target of 100 stores by YE 2020. In the longer term we believe that the Polish market could support at least 300 Domino's pizza stores, with the continued expansion of the Polish economy.

[maiken] 17/9/2017 19:39

I found your post useful Bigboyo.Thanks

[stefanzygmunt] 15/9/2017 15:47

Thanks bigboyo. See you in March!!

[bigboyo] 15/9/2017 11:24

Year to dec ...........2011 ---2012 -- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
start cash ............5059 ----873 --10929 7297 4466 6987 6308
end cash ...............873 --10929 ---7297 4466 6987 6308
cash raised ..............0 --13161 ------0 ---0 5205 3055
Spent cash ............4186 -- 3105 ---3632 2831 2684 3734
Stores open .............12 -----15 -----17 --18 --24 --39
Loss per store ........ 349 ----207 ----214 -157 -112 --96

Stark data showing losses (all in GB Pounds * thousand .. i.e. 5059 is £ 5,059,000 , 873 is £ 873,000 and all data from annual reports 2011.2012,2013,2014,2015,2016)

Spent cash each year despite headline data showing growth. Growth only matters if it generates cash, here cash is being burnt at an astonishing rate and with increased openings together with high losses to bear from openings in 2016 (first 3 years of store opening consume huge cash ) the company will have to come back to the market.

Each time, there will be probably be a dilution but to what extent ??

And even the merest sign of a slowdown in Polish economy (and thus reduction in spending power) will lead to share price collapse in my opinion.

Await news and will review once full year results out in March 2018. Risk Reward not favourable at present.

Declaration, no current position in DPP but have held previous position which was sold.

[hybrasil] 10/9/2017 07:11

Results out on Monday week

I believe the share price has been impacted as a result of the poor performance of the english restaurant sector.

I have been buying this week.

I expect the results again to be excellent

[guernseymoney] 20/8/2017 12:30

Few more capital raises on the cards still IMO but, like you say, once they can confidently say no further dilution, will put a nice 50p floor on the price.

[hybrasil] 19/8/2017 06:42

Next thing to happen here is the interims due in early September. They will (virtually certainly) bring more good news
The best good news of course will come when they can say that they not need to raise more capital

[guernseymoney] 21/6/2017 12:33

Sure, but (without wanting to state the obvious) investing in IPOs is riddled with unforeseen risks, some go well, others not so. An offering memorandum is not much more than one giant disclaimer.

Sometimes you get lucky - I put a few quid into CHT (Constellation Healthcare Technologies) that IPO'd in 2015 and it got bought out at over double the price it launched in less than 24 months, so that was good.

Another IPO I was heavily invested in but lost a lot in was MPL (Mercantile Ports and Logistics) - but this I believe is due to yet-to-be-discovered fraudulent activity. Possibly my worst investment decision to date. Very painful indeed.

Re DPP, assuming one got in and out, you could have made a tidy profit selling (or averaging down) when it was turning south. I bought at 12p, 19p, 33p, 56p, 87p, so views and time horizons change all the time - I guess it depends on one's investing style and confidence in a stock.

[a1samu] 21/6/2017 12:11

Well all good. If you would have invested £10000 at the placing at 60p share, it would be worth £8600 today. Not much of an investment! Why would one do such a thing. The top management manages to lose money big time. This is not investing. Just a thought!

[guernseymoney] 21/6/2017 10:02

@a1samu

I don't disagree with the facts and have pointed out the dilution risks in several previous posts. In retrospect, it's very clear that DPP didn't raise enough funds at IPO and it became apparent early on that dilution/rights issues etc would be on the cards, hence why it fell to 8p or so.

I think Dominos (or a another company who owned rights) previously tried to launch in Poland some years back but failed. DPP has come a long way since IPO and there is clearly traction now.

I do still see further dilution risk, some tail risks for the Polish economy/political landscape, but on balance, I am still long on this share - the company is doing all the right things and has top mgmt.

[maiken] 21/6/2017 09:44

a1samu,don't forget the big one !
70million shares placed at 15p in Nov 2012 which the placing document stated was intended to see the company through to break-even ebitda.
That one diluted existing shareholders by 73.4% !

The CEO peter Shaw subscribed for a massive £4950 worth.

[a1samu] 21/6/2017 09:21

28.7.2010 Dpp came to market with a price of 50p/share.

23.12.2011 Placed 2.75M shares at a price of 60p.

16.6.2015 Placed 36.5M shares at a price of 17.375p.

2.10.2016 Placed 6.7M shares at a price of 48p.

6.6.2017 Placed 12.2M shares at a price of 43p.

Long term vision on 16.6.2015 200-300 stores, later 200 by 2020.

Make what you like of this, with the continuous dilution, is this progress inspiring?

Under 20M shares on admission on the 28.7.2010, now shares in issue are 150M.

[guernseymoney] 21/6/2017 09:07

@a1samu

Many companies don't make money/breakeven yet the share price grows because of the exponential growth potential in the future (think tech companies, i.e. cyber security ones).

Remember that many companies are valued at their discounted fair value - taking into account (1) discount rate, (2) growth rate, (3) terminal growth rate, etc

If lots of positives baked into (2) and (3), then accumulated losses are not particularly relevant, since growth potential (and profitability) in future far exceeds short term losses.

HOWEVER - what is relevant is further dilution between now and the breakeven/profitability of the stores.

A big positive for me is DPP's BoD. Very capable indeed.