Dp Eurasia N.v Share Discussion Threads

[galeforce1] 26/3/2020 15:01

SO it's Friday for final results here. Hopefully there will be no surprises in the 2019 figures, but any statement about the ongoing situation is likely to be pretty dire.

Turkey is in a strict lockdown. I doubt that the Dominos outlets are able to operate at the moment. But I may be wrong. The situation in Russia may be similar.

Trying to be positive, it could be that Turkey's very strict lockdown policy will mean that the country returns to normality reasonably quickly, say within 2 or 3 months on the Chinese model. Ditto Russia.

To give an idea of how strict Turkey's lockdown is, a friend emailed me from Antalya saying that over 65's can only leave the house if accompanied by a policeman (they ring the local station and ask for one if they have something essential to do outside the house).

[hybrasil] 30/1/2020 09:20

What a difference a few days make.
Since my post 99 the value of the company has increased by £15 million

[hybrasil] 28/1/2020 23:24

I was impressed by the calibre of the people that they are recruiting

[m_kerr] 28/1/2020 17:30

inflation at the moment in turkey is 11% the LFL of 13.1% is just ahead of that, and actually more like 2% growth once you strip out inflation. there weren't any real nasty surprises there, and there hasn't been anything to suggest there would be.

[hybrasil] 28/1/2020 10:44

£70m divided by 800 gives £87500 per store

This share could I hope be a multi bagger

[galeforce1] 28/1/2020 09:07

Update looks pretty good. Definitely doing well in Turkey. Russia progress not so rapid, but skewed by a currency effect perhaps?
Still zero interest in the shares.
I have added a few.

[m_kerr] 25/1/2020 20:01

ah the old 'the share price has fallen so there must be a reason'.

[hybrasil] 23/1/2020 09:05

5 days to a trading update
There must be something scary out there to justify this sustained ongoing fall

[m_kerr] 21/1/2020 21:55

'Is a fund raising coming?'

the beauty of the domino's model is the very limited capex requirements while expanding, when lots of franchise stores are opened. most of the stores opened in the last couple of years have been franchises. each non franchise store costs about $100k to open, so even corporate stores aren't that expensive to open, with the added benefit of corporate store profit when that route is taken.

so with this in mind, the business model at the moment is to use the predictable cashflows from turkey, to fund significant and rapid expansion in russia with a mix or corporate and franchise. i very much doubt there will be a fund raising. where did you get this idea from?

[m_kerr] 13/1/2020 23:44

problem is the currency uncertainty in the two markets. the underlying performance in turkey is excellent. LFL growth high, franchise percentage up, overall stores up, and they have cornered the pizza market in market share. so they're doing very well, just the profits they generate are being downgraded by the exchange rate.

[gfrae] 13/1/2020 08:23

Essntial Investor, perhaps you should look at Raven ?

[hybrasil] 11/1/2020 11:24

Thanks M-kerr

trading statement due on the 28th

[m_kerr] 10/1/2020 23:03

worth remembering that the main markets, russia and turkey, have interest rates at about 7% and 20% respectively. so any businesses earning 20% on capital after tax in turkey are worth no more than book value at the moment. that's a very high hurdle to clear.

interest cover is also very thin, due to the very high interest rates on the loans 9.7% on the rouble element which makes up most of the borrowing.

so it's mainly macro economic concerns that are hammering the share price.

[hybrasil] 10/1/2020 18:58

Was wrong at .52p.

Is a fund raising coming?

[essentialinvestor] 09/1/2020 16:03

Unfortunately have an indirect holding here through an investment trust.

Outside of energy, has any UK listed company made a profit in the Russian market?.
often a money pit in my experience.

[hybrasil] 09/1/2020 08:22

M-kerr
My thinking is that once the current persistent seller is out of the way and I accept I should have waited till then that there is an excellent chance of a serious jump in the share price.
I stupidly hark back to my 32x profits in the original dominos

[m_kerr] 08/1/2020 23:34

i'm seriously considering investing. reason being the strong business it has in turkey, which has generated predictable growth of earnings, and has virtually cornered the market. because the russian side is not as developed as turkey, the overall results dont look very good to a casual observer. i doubt it will be plain sailing there.

obviously, the problem is that you can scarcely think of two worse countries to be located in politically. if turkey was considered a stable democracy, then obviously it wouldn't be trading anywhere near where it is now.

i also like the long term track record of the management, CEO still owns about £3.5m of stock personally.

[hybrasil] 06/1/2020 16:50

Nearly 2% of the company changed hands today

[hybrasil] 06/1/2020 16:30

Bought a few more and have reduced my average price to .83p

[hybrasil] 06/1/2020 15:07

Slowly averaging down
Bought 25k odd at .52
Time will tell

[hybrasil] 06/1/2020 09:53

Trading statement on the 20th jan

My guess is about 800 stores

Is it just the fact that the market has fallen out of love with pizza

[hybrasil] 31/12/2019 16:04

The rate of fall seems to have stopped. It's now trading at one quarter of the ipo price but in a significantly better place.

I'm waiting before I average down

[hybrasil] 20/12/2019 13:47

And still it falls

[hybrasil] 18/12/2019 18:51

Go to page 73 of the annual report. You will see fides as of march 2019 own 32%.
Someone is relentlessly selling. I reckon there are now 800 stores. So the market values this at £100k per store. Even in turkey and Russia I suspect that's light

[groundedkiwi] 12/12/2019 12:40

Did that . Still don't understand your point. I understand the share I am discussing. Fundsmith have a material holding. If an entity is selling that lowers the price - which is the definition of Mr Market's tendency to over and under value in the short term. What is your insight or point of view?