Domino's Pizza Share Discussion Threads

[growthpotential] 21/12/2019 20:58

Good business, added a cheeky long position on Friday!

[suetballs] 10/12/2019 07:21

Sorry old news.
Keep up Suet

[suetballs] 10/12/2019 07:19

Chairman gone!
Suet

[frazboy] 21/11/2019 18:42

Berenberg upgrade from 200p to 225p (still a sell) may have caused the price volatility this morning. They think the share price has responded too positively to the news regarding the sell off of the international operations - they think it’ll be a rocky path.

I opened a modest short just before the close. My personal view is that the new NEDs investment record is difficult to fathom and perhaps not that great - happy to hear others constructive opinions. Regardless, the share price takes for granted more good news than bad in my opinion. An EV of £1.65bn and a lot of disgruntled franchisees that contribute to that wonderful ROC is what I see.

Best of luck whether you’re long or short.

[frazboy] 19/11/2019 15:18

Half yearly report suggests underlying profits of just over a million for DPUKs one third share of the German subsidiary. Admittedly that’s not EBIDTA, but I don’t think, despite there being over 300 stores, it’s a cash generating cow - and thus perhaps not a hidden gem? Could be wrong.

[aa29] 19/11/2019 08:40

I have never understood why DP UK decided it was a good idea to go into Scandinavia and Iceland when they had needed to get DPE to effectively take over the running of the German start up.

If UK don't trigger the put option before, I would be very surprised if DPE don't use their call option in Jan 2022 to take all the future upside in Germany.

[frazboy] 19/11/2019 07:58

Thanks AA - difficult to put a value on that.

[aa29] 18/11/2019 16:31

Might be this: DPUK has a put option to sell its 33% in Dominos Germany from 1 January 2020, Dominos Pizza Enterprises has a call option to buy the 33% from 1 January 2022.

Consideration based on between 10 and 12 times adjusted EBITDA for the German joint venture. Not sure on a likely value.

[frazboy] 18/11/2019 08:40

Interesting director RNSs. My interpretation is that the new NED is adding via his hedge fund and he’s having to declare all purchases even though he hasn’t passed any new thresholds. Looks like he’s bought thus far up to 280p. I guess the bit that really intrigues me is what an activist wants the board to do - they’re selling off the international businesses, but what other quick gains are there? None that I’m aware of!

[robinnicolson] 12/11/2019 14:15

The market seems to be applauding today's appointment of a NED with 'skin in the game':

"...Usman is the Founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Browning West LP ("Browning West"), a Los Angeles-based investment partnership and 6.5% shareholder of the Company"

From The Telegraph last month:

"Browning West was founded by Usman Nabi, an activist who masterminded a boardroom coup at one of the world's biggest mattress companies..."

[philanderer] 25/10/2019 00:25

Market report:

......Domino's Pizza, on the other hand, rose 1.7 per cent, or 4.9p, to 289.5p after it attracted its own American activist.

California-based hedge fund Browning West has taken a 5.33 per cent slice of Domino's, worth £70million.

[gswredland] 24/10/2019 09:23

Thanks for your contribution fraz

[frazboy] 23/10/2019 22:45

GSW - not sure, I was looking for a share price starting with a 3 before I opened a short. The strength of the buying yesterday caught me by surprise - I did notice that a couple of the more recent holding RNSs were American institutions increasing their stake so I figured they might chase it up higher. I also noticed that WorldQuant were reducing (slightly) their short which could have added to the buying pressure.

Anyways, if the share price starts with a 3, given the debt level, and the ongoing franchisee dispute (not that it knocked new openings that much in Q1 and Q3) then I'll be looking to go short. For what it's worth I don't see the dispute with the franchisees going away as they (Dominos) want to open more stores - 1600 being the UK capacity - but none of these stores are in new areas, so they continue to canabalise sales from existing franchisees. I would guess that a 40% rise in the number of stores would only lead to a 20% rise in revenue. Not that the franchiser cares, they're just interested in gross sales and restaurant numbers, as that's how they make their money. Thus I don't see the franchisee dispute going away anytime soon - too much tension unless Dominos want to sacrifice margin?

[gswredland] 22/10/2019 17:14

Yes but what height is that fraz. Went short a bit too early yesterday

[frazboy] 22/10/2019 14:29

Mr Market is being ever so kind. But he might yet be kinder still - the American Domino's Pizza sells for 28x earnings (I think). Now, rough back of the envelope calculations suggest an underlying EPS this year of around 17p (excluding the international business) for the UK business. The question is, given the maturity of the business in the UK/ROI what multiple is the market prepared to give it? 20? Seems fanciful to me - I'll be going short if it gets to such dizzy heights.

[philanderer] 22/10/2019 11:38

That's Canaccord's target hit ;-)

[philanderer] 18/10/2019 10:20

Canaccord 'buy' tp 285p

[philanderer] 17/10/2019 17:31

Peel Hunt upgrades to 'buy' tp 325p up from 300p

[frazboy] 17/10/2019 11:10

Agreed. Kind of. I think the CEO was calling the shots and he's leaving anyway. I'm quite amused that they had $8m of Capex (in H2 I think) committed to international prior to this update, and then, after getting a few consultants in, they've suddenly decided they would be better off in the hands of a new owner. What will be interesting is, the price. Asset or liability? Asset, I assume. But they'll continue to haemorrhage earnings until they release them.

[smurfy2001] 17/10/2019 10:51

So they've decided to exit their international efforts. The entire Domino's board should be fired immediately for their incompetence and failure.

Not a holder.

[philanderer] 17/10/2019 09:30

Well received :-)

[frazboy] 17/10/2019 08:54

Share price increase approximately equal, in percentage terms, to the increase in EPS due to the binning of the international business. It’ll be interesting to see where it goes from here

[frazboy] 17/10/2019 08:10

Market loves it!

[frazboy] 17/10/2019 07:48

UK steady as you go, ROI previously strong, not so this time... UK LFL 1.4% excluding splits - so it’s a pretty mature business in the UK, with each new restaurant eating into the old once food price inflation is accounted for (3%). So, what do you want to pay for that business 14 to 16 times earnings? Looks expensive to me. I’ll bet on a down day

[grahamg8] 17/10/2019 07:34

Could go either way Gabster. I would lean towards positive. The institutions say they look forward and clearing the decks should be popular. At the end of the day the UK and Ireland business is pretty solid and dominant in the market. Downsides, need to find CEO and Chair, continuing dispute with franchisee, and of course the size of hit on International is as yet unknown.