Diversified Gas & Oil Share Discussion Threads

[podgyted] 14/2/2021 22:13

Short-term but every little helps:-

[mattybuoy] 13/2/2021 22:31

A glimpse of the future perhaps? As the O&G industry is starved of capital and more power is generated by intermittent wind and solar.



Some US nat gas hubs have seen spot prices in the hundreds of dollars per mcf. This is unprecedented.

[johnhemming] 09/2/2021 20:36

>something has chased DGOC up 10% recently
I think it is simply that the people willing to sell DGOC at a price sub 1.20 have been depleted. We now see who is willing to sell below 1.30.

This is a time when charting comes into its own as a measurement of sentiment on what has a relatively consistent assessed value.

[podgyted] 09/2/2021 20:31

Think there are some good reasons why DGOC is up 10% recently. The continued high gas price (compared with a year ago) suggests they will be getting good forward hedging prices for the next couple of years in addition to a bit of bunce on the 20% they historically don't hedge.

The JV with Oaktree has promise (but has yet to produce a deal).

I have no doubt there are peaks and troughs around the quarterly dividend dates but given the sh*t that has been going on over the last year determining the actual magnitude would be difficult. I'll just continue to hold/buy until the fundamentals change.

[cassini] 09/2/2021 14:26

FB,

I think you're right, the pattern is harder to see in 2019 and even the November peak this year appears a bit too early and the price is going off when the ex-dividend date arrives on the 27th November.

I'm too lazy to get an Excel spreadsheet set up, find the data, then correct the price for the COVID plunge, that critical report that came out last year, the dividend drops etc then set up some sort of price delta test before and after ex-divi date ;0)

I do know though that often what goes up fast comes down again in the not too distant future and something has chased DGOC up 10% recently and I'm not expecting it to hold onto these gains, so still thinking of selling out (for now).

[fardels bear] 09/2/2021 09:03

I think you need to go back further than just 2020 to confirm your hypothesis, though. If there's one thing that's often proven to be unreliable it's data sampled from too small a group, or over too short a time period as in this case. And of course we mustn't forget that the design of the test needs to be as unbiased as possible and not reflect the author's pet theory of the moment.

[mo2550] 09/2/2021 09:03

From my info There is no resistance in the price chart further rises indicated - 1.31 or more is signaled

[cassini] 09/2/2021 02:52

Well I'm open to alternative explanations of why we have seen four price peaks since May 2020 all seemingly preceding the ex-dividend date - by maybe a month?

However, I am considering my options here as you're right, why make 10%/year when you can make 10%/quarter? ;0)

The only question is whether to forego the dividend by selling before the ex-dividend date then buy back in when the price has dropped 10% (far more than going ex-divi can account for) or hold until the day after the ex-dividend date then sell and buy back in cheaper a few weeks later.

Hmm. Seems too easy. I'm sure there's a catch...

[fardels bear] 09/2/2021 00:34

If that's the case one would be better off buying the 10% dips and forgetting about the div. since there are four div payments in a year, 10% dip after each one would equate to much greater return than holding and collecting the div.

[cassini] 08/2/2021 23:49

Looking at the yearly price chart in the header, the price seems to rise sharply approximately once per quarter then dribble back down slowly, certainly since May.

Whatever the reason (I suspect, looking at the dates, it rises before it goes ex-dividend), there's a fair chance I imagine this latest price rise is part of the same pattern - the next ex-dividend date is 04/03/21. If so, expect a fair chance of a gentle slide back down 10% after thr dividend date.

[simplemilltownboy] 08/2/2021 19:22

Some large trades going through today. Wonder why the share price has risen? Can't be the spot price.

[janekane] 08/2/2021 07:57

yes I also think this will go higher over the next month

[pro_s2009] 08/2/2021 04:55

Ex-div date less than a month away as well..........so plenty of buying in the coming weeks.

[1knocker] 06/2/2021 13:39

Lord gnome, I guess those of us who have already cottoned on to this company should make the most of the low share price while it lasts, and any dips, to keep reinvesting our dividends and spare cash! We have no excuse for missing this boat, which is obligingly waiting at the pier. I am very impressed with the management. Their game plan has been spelled out with crystal clarity, and executed with great skill.

[doubleorquits] 06/2/2021 12:42

Unless the directors are completely incompetent (and they are not imo!) this is one company where the yield is secured by the free cashflow, underpinned by higher gas prices. The fact that the dividend has been increased (twice, if I recall correctly) fairly recently suggests to me we are still under-valued at 160p-200p with no further dividend increases. At £2 and today's exchange rate the value of a 16 cent per annum dividend would be 11.65p per share or a yield of 5.825% which is not overly demanding even then - I believe at £1.60 the yield would be 7.25%.

Of course things change but I firmly believe that the share is undervalued by at least 30% at TODAY's price given what we know, even if held outside a SIPP and therefore subject to the 15% withholding tax which the SIPP protects against.

[lord gnome] 06/2/2021 12:05

Simple cure for our high yield - double the share price. Which would be nice.

[johnhemming] 06/2/2021 11:24

One key aspect about investment is confidence. That is why momentum and sentiment can be both infectious and significant. Quite a few cautious investors have it drummed in to them that a high yield is insecure.

Diversified's price was driven down during covid (following the oil price) when
a) It sells mainly gas
b) It has a very high and very long term hedging policy.

However, the price went down.

I could see it going to £2 at which point the yield is about 5-6% with some growth and some protection against inflation. As it goes up people will see it has the confidence of the market and the yield will hence reduce giving those worried about the high yield nothing to worry about.

[1knocker] 06/2/2021 10:17

I think you may be right about the very high yield hindering rather than helping the share price I have held these for some while now, with a first purchase in the low 80s. They have done me very well, but I was initially fearful that they might well be in the 'too good to be true' category. I was surprised that the move to the main market did not increase confidence and share price more. Logically (if one may dare say that in this market) the share price should increase as the track record grows longer. In the meantime, I am more than happy with a high and rising yield!

[johnhemming] 05/2/2021 16:49

I think "catching up with value" is basically right. I can understand people who bought in at 65p selling at 1.10, the current price is still a yield of over 10%.

As the price moves up the share will seem to have a more reasonable yield. I think the high yield puts off some investors.

After all it also has some growth. Hence I would not be surprised if it accelerated a bit now it is past 1.20.

[spangle93] 05/2/2021 16:32

Maybe there was a tip somewhere. One of my stocks was up 10% today as a result of the IC recommending a buy. Time to exit that one ;-)

[dr pinkstone] 05/2/2021 16:01

Nice rise but no idea why--just catching up with value I guess

[spawny100] 05/2/2021 15:59

I posted a while back when the price was just over a quid that the chart was a lovely reverse head and shoulders with a £1.30 target. Might just be that playing out in textbook fashion?

[11_percent] 05/2/2021 15:57

Yup.....something brewing.