Diversified Gas & Oil Share Discussion Threads

[basem1] 14/11/2018 08:27

It's like pulling teeth holding this at present. I'm not a fan of news as it normally gets sold into but we need some here even if it's just to let the market know how undervalued this is.

[sogoesit] 14/11/2018 08:14

Added yesterday just below 116 on a limit order.
Fair amount of “sells”(?) at 115 after that.

[jq1984] 13/11/2018 21:47

Thanks base

[basem1] 13/11/2018 21:35

The dividend will continue to rise quarter on quarter as Ebitda increases. Although there are more shares in issue now after the latest acquisition. Hedging won't affect the stated dividend one way or another.

[jq1984] 13/11/2018 21:26

Anybody know what this will do the dividend price?

[basem1] 13/11/2018 12:04

It's like an insurance policy. The insurer takes the risk. And can go long / Short themselves to mitigate there position. Some of the oil company's do it. Ithaca energy always did. It's a prudent thing to do albeit frustrating when your hedged well below the current rising price.

[podgyted] 13/11/2018 11:54

....and there's $4.00.

According to accounts and presentations DGOC have a policy of 75% to 90% hedged. Even at 10% unhedged this should be having a significant impact at the moment. (NB 75% minimum is specified in credit facility agreement).

Still trying to get my head around what sort of hedging they use.

[nimbo1] 13/11/2018 11:50

Hh into the 4’s! This should be higher - May buy more. It’s already my largest holding

[lab305] 13/11/2018 07:18

From Edison note.......


We provide a base valuation of DGO at 138.1p/share based on a long-term Henry
Hub price of $3.10/mcf (2022). We see potential downside to 100.4p/share based
on a 15% decrease in gas pricing and equivalent increase in costs. Risk/reward
remains skewed to the upside with a valuation of 176.2p/share based on a 15%
increase in gas price,


Well we are much more than 15% above 3,10 figure that they cite. In fact we are 27% above it this morning with a present value of 116p. Crazy.

[sogoesit] 13/11/2018 07:05

basem1: my growth stocks: FEVR, PLUS, FDEV, PRSM, BUR(?).
Maybe PLUS and FDEV for the chop or reduction but could be painful!!

Lab305 are you saying the hedging is a "legacy" arrangement?

[lab305] 13/11/2018 06:59

That's right basem1 we are not gaining as you say but hedging deals only last a limited time and someone else taking over with a different way of running things could make a fortune.

[basem1] 13/11/2018 06:49

Chart looks " good to go again " now.

[basem1] 13/11/2018 06:46

Anyone know what percentage of our gas sales are hedged ? We aren't gaining from the full increase at present.

[basem1] 13/11/2018 06:44

AAZ sogoesit. 8% forward yield, no debt, making half its mkt cap in profit a year and had a nice chart pullback yesterday. A no brainer. What high growth stocks are you in ?

[sogoesit] 13/11/2018 06:38

Yes, indeed basem1, I will have to re-think my portfolio strategy in the coming weeks for the "new reality" and do a "switcheroo":
Switch out of some highly priced growth stocks and switch into commodity cash-generators that meet my approx. 6% yield threshold. (Take a new look at mining stocks as well).
Contrary to some investment received wisdom I am also thinking of switching out of some quasi-bond defensives (the likes of CSN, BNZL, DCC) too. I like the contrarian view to this but am undecided.

Anyway, DGOC meets a good number of "defensive" criteria: "clean", base-load and peaking powergen, growing export markets (Trump's LNG for car tariff arbitrage) etc.

I used these for my data:

[lab305] 13/11/2018 06:35

NATURAL GAS 11 mins
3.936 +3.91%

Whatever now with gas prices at this level the company is worth much more than the market cap. Hutson has done brilliantly acquiring assets at low valuations in an unfashionable sector.Now with the rise in gas prices and the cost savings achieved from combining these assets the company is seriously undervalued. Predators must be eying DGOC as it now looks very cheap indeed.

[sogoesit] 12/11/2018 17:21

Interesting wedge formation on the weekly chart:
a break above 118 could be strongly bullish;
a break below 112.5 would be to further downside.

Being long my bet on "bullish".

[nimbo1] 12/11/2018 13:09

hxxps://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_eb0fa107d052454828c0509542792eba/dgoc/db/460/3380/file/DGOC+-+IR+-+Earnings+Presentation+-+2018H1+Earnings+vFINAL.pdf

page 14 of the recent presentation - i wonder if it is to do with their hedging strategy - they may not see the full benefit of the price increases?

However they would have know gas prices would increase over winter and be taking advantage...

[podgyted] 12/11/2018 13:02

HH $3.90.

I going to start reading up DGOC again - do not understand share price movement here.

[nimbo1] 12/11/2018 12:28

Price movement here is weirding me out! ; )

[basem1] 09/11/2018 17:52

Yep I'm fully loaded here. Over my usual threshold but the value and yield here is just staggering. Hope I'm proved correct.

[lab305] 09/11/2018 17:36

NATURAL GAS 10 mins
3.752 +5.90%

[podgyted] 09/11/2018 16:31

I'm full after topping up today, but everyone else should back up the truck (DYOR) - HH 3.80.

That's over 30% higher than a little over a month ago - and a step change from where it was last year.

The market still assumes there is a correlation between gas and oil - wrong -opportunity to make money.

Strange I came here for the income.