Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sunbed44] 22/3/2022 15:08

Agree but getting timing right and the bit of luck you need doing that is more luck than judgement. Geo-political issues will swing SP's like this way more than any chart can predict.

[gary1966] 22/3/2022 15:03

FB, No stamp duty with IG and also DMA which is very useful. Look at the 2 day RSI, as I did say short term indicators. Love the company and this makes up over a third of my portfolio, but that doesn't mean it doesn't get under/overcooked occasionally.

sunbed44, a couple of pennies for me is over £3k and so if you can scalp that occasionally it is very useful.

[fardels bear] 22/3/2022 14:59

You have to factor in the stamp duty when trading as well.

[fardels bear] 22/3/2022 14:41

Not on my chart they aren't.

[gary1966] 22/3/2022 14:29

These have had a great run since the lows of last Tuesday and as a consequence short term indicators are now looking overcooked. I have taken a chance and taken the money off the table today to see if things calm down a little. Markets in general are also up significantly since the lows of March 7th and are looking very overcooked in the short term.

GLA

[aleman] 22/3/2022 14:10

Middle to long end is quiet - at or near highs - but shorter contracts are pushing into new territory again, today.

March 2023


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[cassini] 22/3/2022 13:10

The dividend exchange rate is a favourable $1.31/£.

It wasn't that far back it was $1.375/£.

[scrwal] 22/3/2022 12:56

Looking at the ARO supplement the $500M would be used to pre-fund the future ARO and dividends funding account which would be used from year 37.
It is a nice bonus currently but given the time frames involved it may well be eroded over time by various matters causing retirement costs to rise.
Also the model assumes the cash fund built up earns interest at 3%.

The average corporate decline is now 9% compared to 7% in 2020.

A set of good results which are distorted by the hedging policy on the reported figures.

A takeover price would have to be north of 160p for it to have any chance of board or shareholder approval.

[asp5] 22/3/2022 12:28

I expect further positive announcements in the near future. The 2 recent securitizations to free up $400+M liquidity suggests next acquisition is around the corner. You do not replace your low cost (relatively speaking) RCF with an amortizing securitisation (higher cost but better stability) for no reason.

Share price will re rate once the non dilutive nature of growth has sunk in. I am not so interested in timing the market but anything under 1,50 - 1,60 GBP is deep value from my perspective. Since 2017, DEC has provided 23% pa TSR (total share holder returns).

[1knocker] 22/3/2022 11:16

That looks good to me. No land mines, no fireworks. Basically what most of us own DEC for, especially in a volatile wider market. I really do not see why we are around 115 rather than at least 125, especially as the future of gas is much more assured politically now than it was even 3 months ago. It should surely be worth at least 10% on the current share price that gas is no longer the top of the list as a whipping boy to save the planet.

[asp5] 22/3/2022 09:00

The term would be the remaining life of the wells - which I think is on average 50 years (I remember in one of their previous presentations DEC provided a distribution).

Also I think this could just be conservative as it refers to only cost reductions. On slide 13, ~50% of the team plugging capacity can be used for revenue generation. So plenty of potential to subsidise the current $1,7B ARO costs by even more.

How DEC then decide to use this - linearly or front load say the first 20 years would let us say be a nice problem to have to solve.

[shanklin] 22/3/2022 08:47

asp5

over what term please?

[asp5] 22/3/2022 08:43

Presentation available: hxxps://ir.div.energy/ir-calendar-events

slide 17 - 30% saving in ARO costs (using in house team etc.) allows a $500M increase to dividends and/or reinvestments over term.

Very promising .....

[asp5] 22/3/2022 07:55

Like the reference to "durable dividends" and the emphasis on this theme in the results.

What's not to like about "meaningful non-dilutive growth in a target-rich environment" especially with €400M+ available for acquisitions. Would not be surprised to see RNS's on this front in the coming weeks.

Importantly no negative surprises.

[simplemilltownboy] 22/3/2022 07:19

Agreed, lower average cost per Boe better hedging, no more dilution and recommends 4.25 cent divi

[sunbed44] 22/3/2022 07:13

Excellent report

[cassini] 21/3/2022 03:28

I'm also holding IOG which is the polar opposite of DEC, just for the excitement!

[johnhemming] 20/3/2022 14:00

I am not sure they would get it for that.

[lab305] 20/3/2022 08:13

I was thinking about 1.40.

[johnhemming] 20/3/2022 08:02

The question for a takeover is what price people would be willing to pay. I don't think there is an argument that the management would improve. Would a bidder pay £1.60-£2.00 I am not sure they would.

[lab305] 19/3/2022 22:07

Gary thanks for your detail. That looks reasonable and it seems that selling at 2.66 has now gone. I check the spot price almost daily and there is of course a chasm between that and the futures prices. It will be interesting to see Antero's results with their low hedging policy over the next two or three years.
Does anyone think that DEC's empire is liable to a takeover since they hold ever more attractive assets and yet the share price is now around 11% lower than in March 19 ,three years ago. They are paying us 13p (before withholding tax) and that's after debt repayment, expenses and wages for themselves. Unless I am missing something they are looking very attractive especially to much lower hedged oil and gas companies now awash with cash .

[gary1966] 19/3/2022 19:21

Not quite true lab305 if you look at recent RNS's. From 24/02

Favourable hedge structure
Long dated natural gas swaps at a weighted average price of $3.36/MMBtu

Long dated NGL swaps at a weighted average price of $33.34/bbl

Natural gas puts purchased in outer years; providing price floor and exposure to increased prices.

From 07/02

Favourable hedge structure
2022 to 2026 natural gas swaps sold at a weighted average price of $3.34/MMBtu

2027 and 2028 natural gas puts purchased at a strike (floor) price of $3.00/MMBtu

2022 to 2025 NGL swaps sold at a weighted average price of $37.82/bbl

Yes they inherited hedged contracts on the recent purchases that would have been adjusted for in the purchase price.

Yes they had hedged 55% of 2022 production but once again a lot of that was kind of forced on them to cover the debt repayments.

Remember the prices above are the average for the whole year and so will smooth out the winter and summer differential.

[lab305] 19/3/2022 17:15

Aleman by the time DEC get to hedging at the prices indicated on your graphs they will have run out of gas !

[aleman] 19/3/2022 11:25

April 22,23,24.25.


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