Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 12:24

Old money points. Easy trap

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 12:22

Did you notice the little short reduction at an old just above 900 divergences?

They are fkrs

😂

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 12:18

Here is the problem with DEC for a V turn etc . You have to see its going to most likely occur, within the 870s to 810s range

That's the only point where a V or consolidated blast up can occur now

If you go below that, there is no made market below

There can be no V or consolidation turn . A market must be made first

So for now the question is simply:

Will 870/810s bring it? Or an old divergences just above 900?

Will any divergences this month be anything other than created by average downs? Re not those whom make market?

Right now the answer csn only be no, to such support.

Forget gas price Outlook. This targeted company seems to suggest they don't care about gas prices

Dunno what they specifically target

Anyway in layman terms, you need to see something spectacular 870s to 810s

Short reductions there are not the answer. They know a reduction changess sentiment . They know if they do a little buyback, others will buy (the future sellers they need). And they are not stupid. They will be derivative covered before the buyback re costs them nothing

So short reduction won't be the answer

Need to see something else.....
.

[skinny] 31/8/2024 12:14

My best so far :-

There are 19 hidden posts from your filtered users.

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 12:01

Its amazing how much fundamental info and fund Outlook is on a decent chart. You don't realise it until start talking about it haha

But ultimately all fundamental outlooks and truths are basically there technically

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 11:57

Sometimes a short is a great long call ..

Example say 0.5 or 1% appearance on a stock

Are they really negative? Or on a fee to portray negativity whilst a fund gets time to build for an expected move up? Obviously the short house will be covered via a derivative for a fee to be net

Anyway I think you guys are looking to commodity cfd and options markets to predict the gas prices

Dangerous

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 11:54

Ultimately...its simply about who makes a market and where they would want to do it. And if you see that they are. . Short or long

Everyone else is irrelevant and as such most opinions

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 11:39

Yes. Always a game plan

The game plan covers any price as its all planned out as to where to look for market change re relevant prices

Wouldnt matter if only a trade. I need to know investors better than they know themselves to be sure even for that

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 11:38

Sure its cyclical

Avance gas ...UGAS etc


'conspiracy theory element aside'???

Nothing conspiratory about holders loaning to hence working with shorters. Its one of few facts in market

[1knocker] 31/8/2024 11:31

Putin, so DEC is a sell at any price and over any timeframe? So far as i can see from your analysis, for you that goes for any company in the sector. I follow your analysis and, the conspiracy theory element aside, I see some force in it but gas is not going away any time soon, it is a cyclical industry and there will continue to be money in it for the better run providers. DEC's business model seems to me to be a sound one to see it through the rough times.

Now that you have set out your bear stall, if you have an interest in the sector (ie you are invested, or looking to invest in it) the time has come for you to enlighten us as to how to play the sector.

If you believe the sector is just one big 'avoid', why do you devote so much time and energy to posting about it? Possibly you play the short side. Nothing wrong with that, though I am a long only investor myself but if you are playing the sector, whether long or short, presumably you have a game plan?

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 11:21

Just had a look at gerbil forecast sources that reckon gas prices and few other neccessity commodities rise over 12 months

They obviously never looked at global central bank forum notes to the dangers of such re inflation and rates etc...and of course, how to ensure it doesn't occur . Example aid that will be given in Norway and the US to up supply and so on .

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:49

But thats general overview.

DEC:

Assured the shorters and main holders working together here

It's going to get low low. Suiting all parties

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:45

There is an irony surely not lost on you? Many funds get to distribute high as yiu lot buy a perceived commodity low

Matched trades

😂

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:36

Gas will fall throughout the winter and continue into 2025

But hey, what better time to finalise offloads?

'Winter is coming '

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:34

Their position is sort of like BP in a way at 520s. Been distributing for ages on high consolidation

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:33

I'd ask myself why gas specialist funds were seen to offload same time as natural gas double bottom liquidity really

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:28

Probably a weekly divergence or something, misleading them

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:27

Many also think gas prices may have double bottomed into September

Dear oh dear

[putinaire] 31/8/2024 10:24

Not sure why you would choose this for yield ?

Some heavily energy weighted etfs out there with yields varying from 8 to 10%. Risk spread via many holdings ie if one folds , who cares

So, a gas focused entity with short positions as heavy as the yield v the above seems pointless

There will be no bounce here of note above 200p

Shorters and holders working together here . They will be well paid and assured that a buyback period starts low , which also suits the holders

Buybacks in heavily shorted stocks font mean long term share price recovery anyway . As is seen in many through history

As for the yield itself plus buybacks failing to find support, its obvious the above shall be correct

[pdt] 31/8/2024 09:56

I bought some on Friday. The 10% yield is very attractive especially when UK rates are expected to get close to 3.5% over the next year or so. I also wanted some oil and gas in my portfolio. They are well hedged. With spot around $2 per unit gas rising to $3 according to futures throughout 2025 I feel the dividend will be fairly safe.

I forget the number but interest cover seemed okay as well. Shorters seem more likely to close as time goes by given the direction of interest rates and gas prices so there may even be some capital gain here. As usual time will tell :)

[putinaire] 30/8/2024 20:33

But just as a matter of interest, would you not be concerned?

Concerned that any corruption found may have been Feb to July 2024 re 800s to 1250s?

[putinaire] 30/8/2024 20:29

Your only hope would be to get the SFO involved somehow or the PRA in banks etc

FCA looooool

Probably advisors 😂😂😂