Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 19/3/2024 07:03

Profits look good, FCF but big acquisition hence dividend cut to 0.29 USD per quarter. Exposure to Gulf Coast pricing.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/3/2024 19:56

Is the model not all about sustained dividend payouts, and debt repayments with acquisitions to build and replace volume declines..

The share price is not the limiting factor dictating the dividends, free cash flows are and with 80/85% of production hedged these are shielded..

Annual report 2021 - the boards target is to return not less than 40% of FCF to shareholders by way of dividends on a quarterly basis, in line with the strength and consistency of the groups cash flows.

Annual report 2022 - The boards target has been to return FCF to shareholders by way of dividend, on a quarterly basis, in line with the strength and consistency of the groups cash flows.
The directors may further revise the groups dividend policy from time to time in line with the groups actual results and financial position. The boards dividend policy reflects the groups current and expected future cash flow generation potential..

2023 - due next, and an interesting day coming up tomorrow..

[bountyhunter] 18/3/2024 19:40

Agreed Tag, that's how I see it as well or the tender offer would have not been a wise move. There may have to be a dividend cut at some point in the future if gas prices fail to recover and long term hedging is affected but that won't be the next divi imho. Even long term holders must still be receiving a 10%+ yield right now surely?

[tag57] 18/3/2024 19:35

I genuinely can’t see DEC management proposing the tender, with the proposed average period following the quarterly results, if they expected to issue poor numbers.

[fordtin] 18/3/2024 19:30

If DEC go down the divi-cut rabbit hole, let’s hope the major shareholders catch the falling knife, then push the 5 day average above £8.9048.
If they play it right, the majors could buy up to the equivalent of ~7% of their shareholding at fire sale prices, then tender them for £9.35 or more.

[bluemango] 18/3/2024 19:20

Conversely, a sustained dividend level would be hugely bullish.

[bluemango] 18/3/2024 19:16

I agree, absolutely, that existing investors would obviously not want to see a halved dividend.

My point is that the market looks at the current situation, and that would be a still-decent yield for buyers tomorrow. Therefore, all other things being equal, logically the further downside in share price should be limited. Agree it would be pants for historic investors like ourselves.

[fordtin] 18/3/2024 19:11

bluemango, re "But even if halved it would still be a very decent yield,"
I have to disagree with you there. Having been a shareholder for a couple of years, the dividend I receive is nowhere near the dividend yield recent investors get.
Halving the dividend would be a very strong sell signal for me.

[bluemango] 18/3/2024 19:01

Not sure anyone really has a clue what tomorrow brings, but at least it will be good to remove some of the uncertainty that's plagued this company recently.

Sustained dividend or halved? Who knows. But even if halved it would still be a very decent yield, which should limit any further downside.

[fordtin] 18/3/2024 18:55

Results tomorrow and the five day qualifying period for tender offer starts Wednesday.

Anyone care to predict how tomorrow and the following five trading days will play out?

[bountyhunter] 18/3/2024 18:48

A big day tomorrow with results due, 7am GMT?

[gonsan] 18/3/2024 12:04

I can not wait for the conference call tomorrow. Sustainability of Dividends is the key for me!

[justiceforthemany] 18/3/2024 11:06

Oil and nat gas spiking, +6%

[blue square] 17/3/2024 18:12

Or sell a couple of days before
Ex divi day and buy back on ex divi
day, this time you could sold for
£10 and bought back for around £9.20p

[2wild] 17/3/2024 18:04

Or open a SIPP and have previously paid income tax returned and Zero withholding tax as well.

[apollocreed1] 17/3/2024 12:33

By the way, it may help some people to know that if you buy and hold your DEC shares with a spreadbetting company called BUX Markets, and you fully fund the position (i.e don't choose the leverage option), then they pay the dividends fully without deducting any withholding tax. All other gains are tax free since it's spreadbetting. Your only cost is the spread between the buy and sell price which is quite reasonable.
Note that IG index did pay the dividend net of withholding tax in their spread betting account, so it depends upon the platform you use.

[bountyhunter] 17/3/2024 12:29

No surprise it's Bloomberg.

[apollocreed1] 17/3/2024 12:27

Maybe relevant to DEC

[bountyhunter] 17/3/2024 11:04

I hope the AI closes their positions if there's nothing negative in the results! ;-)

[fordtin] 17/3/2024 09:00

bh, Their recent reporting history suggests they are actively trading DEC.

It's possible their net short position has been up and down numerous times within the bounds of 1.0% and 1.0999% between the 08/3/24 and 14/3/24.

As the reporting requirement is for the end of day position, they could even have been swing trading intraday above 1.1% and below 1.0%. Provided they’re back within those glass walls by close of day’s trading, they are under no obligation to report a change.

I doubt they have a human constantly monitoring DEC’s share price, but AI trading could be involved.

If you like conspiracy theories, 5 or 6 short-sellers with a common interest Etc. Etc.

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2024 15:51

So Walleye have decreased their short by 0.02% on March 14th.

[fordtin] 16/3/2024 12:54

Walleye playing games again;



Position Holder
Adage Capital Management L.P.
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd
Millennium Capital Partners LLP
Voleon Capital Management LP
Walleye Capital LLC
TT International Asset Management Ltd
 




Date
Net Short Position (%)
 
 
 
 
 
Total short positions (%)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


14/03/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
1.01
0.98
 
3.67


08/03/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
1.01
1.00
 
3.69


05/03/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
1.01
0.94
 
3.63


04/03/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
1.01
0.82
 
3.51


04/03/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
0.92
0.70
 
3.30


26/02/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
0.92
0.70
 
3.30


16/02/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
0.80
0.70
 
3.18


14/02/24
0.66
0.51
0.51
0.70
0.70
 
3.08


13/02/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.70
0.70
 
2.57


07/02/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.70
0.60
 
2.47


01/02/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.60
0.60
 
2.37


26/01/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.60
0.53
 
2.30


25/01/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.52
0.53
 
2.22


19/01/24
0.66
0.51
 
0.52
0.49
 
2.18


17/01/24
0.66
 
 
 
0.58
 
1.24


16/01/24
0.66
 
 
 
0.61
 
1.27


04/01/24
0.66
 
 
 
0.50
 
1.16


03/01/24
0.66
 
 
 
 
0.13
0.66


14/12/23
0.66
 
 
 
 
0.61
0.66

[2wild] 16/3/2024 11:35

bountyhunter post 1573. Long time since DEC traded at 10% yield. Probably at 144p peak. £28.80 with strong US Natural Gas above 8 USD.

DEC now up 15% including 58p Ex Dividend in last month.

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2024 11:00

Not if you include the dividend of 87.5c