Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 09/1/2024 15:59

EU gas storage is 87%. That's about 17% above normal/mid-range and they only drew down about 40% last year. Capacity has been expanding, too, so 87% might even be a record in absolute terms. Don't expect demand from Europe to drive prices up. European demand could drop off a cliff in Spring if there is no sustained extreme cold. (US forecasts are leaning to cold next week but it does not look sustained at the moment and it's probably already in the price.)

DEC is protected by healthy levels of forward selling that will generate good cash for a few years. Prices out to 2 and 3 years have been drifting down but are still well above 2021 levels and well above $3 where Rusty said DEC make lots of cash. DEC will still be selling 80% of production forward into these prices. A low current gas price might well be beneficial to DEC if it means they can buy up some smaller operators that maybe don't have the same degree of protection from falling prices, don't want to deal with the environmental regulation burden that DEC seem to be embracing with relish, and don't want the hassle of paperwork to apply for federal subsidies to address leakage and capping. Strongish long futures and lowish spot prices might be best for DEC's long term share price. Discuss ...

[tsmith2] 09/1/2024 15:40

Expecting response tomorrow

[mondex] 09/1/2024 15:20

US gas production high despite glut, low prices

The US natural gas industry faces a challenging outlook for 2024 as a warm winter and high storage levels have pushed prices below $3 per million British thermal units, with sub-$2 prices possible unless the surplus inventory is reduced. Nevertheless, US gas drillers are keeping production high in anticipation of the upcoming surge in demand from new liquefied natural gas terminals.
Full Story: Hart Energy

[bountyhunter] 09/1/2024 15:09

An uninspiring start to trading in NY today.
16:30 GMT when the LSE closes seems to be the time after which NY:DEC often moves.

[justiceforthemany] 09/1/2024 14:41

Natural gas price soaring
+6% today alone

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/1/2024 14:41

#fordtin, I think it would yes, each subsidiary fund is often a separate company entity so a paperwork exercise would need to go through the exchange..?

[fordtin] 09/1/2024 14:25

Hi LLB, would an internal accounting exercise need double handling?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/1/2024 13:59

#Fordtin, could be a II re-allocating between their own funds too, sell and buy the same number (397,589 shares) back again..?

OnG starting to climb now as tensions ratchet up in the red sea as well as the gulf for shipping..

[tom111] 09/1/2024 13:29

According toTrading Economics extreme cold weather is forecast next week in the US with production already dropping and likely to cause stoppages due to the weather conditions.That being so we may see the gas prices rise giving us the chance to hedge

[tom111] 09/1/2024 12:54

Gas establishing itself over 3 has helped as well

[bountyhunter] 09/1/2024 12:52

They haven't done any harm with the price since then rising.

[fordtin] 09/1/2024 12:44

0.83% of the shares in issue in a single trade, followed a few minutes later by another trade of the exact same amount and same value.
My guess is it was the same tranche being double handled. Perhaps on it’s way from UK seller to US buyer?
Maybe a UK market-maker/broker who has been accumulating the shares on behalf of a US client’s market-maker/broker?

Too big to be either of the reported 0.66% or the 0.5% short positions, but could involve another short opening? Although that seems like they’d be betting against a buyer with some pretty cavernous pockets!

[bountyhunter] 09/1/2024 11:51

2 x 397589, @1168.5, bizarre that 2 identical trades of more than £4.5m each!

[imnotspartacus] 09/1/2024 11:40

Missed that one…wow!

[tom111] 09/1/2024 11:18

Times 2 now

[imnotspartacus] 09/1/2024 11:03

5m trade just went through, suspect the big boys trying to buy in on the QT

[joedjoed] 09/1/2024 10:42

Folks...I posted this a few days ago. Anyone got any views? It wasnt intended to be rhetorical!
What am I missing? The press release says "The implied valuation of the Transaction represents a multiple of 5.7 times the expected hedged 2024 EBITDA of approximately $35 million". DEC as a whole is trading on Enterprise value/EBITDA of only 1.08 (Yahoo Finance). What stops this financial wizardry being applied to all assets? Or looked at another way, if this structure pays off 12% of net debt by packaging 35mln of EBITDA, it only needs another 8 of them to pay off all debt. That would then apply to 280mln of EBITDA. Out of 1.64bn.

[ramellous] 09/1/2024 10:18

He means the general rate of SD on uk stocks is 0.5%. The earlier poster said it was 0.05%.
Fortunately SD no longer applies to DEC

[hghotshot] 09/1/2024 09:47

There is no longer (since the US listing) any stamp duty.

[retirementplan] 09/1/2024 09:44

Just bought 500 on HL. Shows as a sell. No stamp duty charged.

[grahamg8] 09/1/2024 07:28

Surely stamp duty is 0.5%?

[justiceforthemany] 08/1/2024 22:19

Nat gas back up to 3 USD

[bountyhunter] 08/1/2024 19:24

Same here, I'm surprised that US investor demand hasn't picked up after that. It's not as if Rusty looked dispirited in any way.

[leoneobull] 08/1/2024 18:51

I really thought we would leave 1100s behind us with that bell ringing from Rusty

[action] 08/1/2024 18:42

London has another big disadvantage of stamp duty of .05% compare to USA. where shall I end?