Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 09/2/2023 13:10

Enough. Don't like using the filter, but there are exceptions:

greygeorge now filtered.

[johnhemming] 09/2/2023 13:09

I put a limit in for 106, but then increased it to 108 and bought at 106.2. At this point the yield is 13%.

[redtom1] 09/2/2023 12:59

So 100% acceptance of my £10,000 with 65.5% being allocated to unconditional and 34.5% to the conditional pot.

[greygeorge] 09/2/2023 12:51

1knocker, I have to hand it to you, you saw the future and tried to warn us all, back on January 30th. Thankyou for trying, at least.

'...greygeorge, if you hold DEC shares, you will presumably sell them pdq, before disaster overtakes you and DEC. If (as seems more likely) you hold none and have no intention of buying any because you see disaster looming, you have nothing to worry about.

...

But please don't buy DEC shares on the strength of anything any of us say.We do not wish to have your financial ruin on our consciences!...'

[1knocker] 09/2/2023 12:51

Well done those who put in limit orders.

Frankly, if peeps aren't buying today at the 52 week low, with an earnings accretive deal in the bag, they either know something I don't, or just don't like money. I do hope it is the latter!

I agree though that if the PIs were to be given a chance at all (albeit for only a small allocation of shares), I can't see why the window of opportunity was not a bit wider. Perhaps the rationale was that no one would get a worthwhile allocation unless the number of applicants was kept small. Better a lottery as who sees the announcement in time than nothing worthwhile for anyone?

Greygeorge, its the company modus operandi. They look to engineer every acquisition and its funding to turn a profit rather than going for the jackpot speculating on the cost of capital and future gas prices. That, of course, also explains why their cost of borrowing is low! If they changed to a more speculative model, that cost would rise.

Some would prefer a more exciting ride. That's easily achieved. There are plenty of other shares in the O and G sector which provide that. Anyone who does not like the description on the DEC tin should be investing elsewhere. It is daft to complain that there are no jumps when you attend a flat race meeting, just as it would be to bemoan the inclusion of Becher's Brook and the consequent risk of decent horses falling there if you chose to back the favourite in the Grand National.

[greygeorge] 09/2/2023 12:41

lab305 has been very bullish about DEC lately. That for me is the biggest red flag that all is not well with this company. He's wrong about everything, all the time.

[scrwal] 09/2/2023 12:26

The market may take a neutral view - the acquisition looks good but once again there has been a snap issue of shares which causes uncertainty. I'm pretty sure that the company indicated last year that given the refinancing done there wouldn't be a need for a share issue , that may be the reason that the buy back programme was embarked on.
Either way the company is now in the same position it has been following a snap issue and the price may languish around this level , give or take, for a while but if there is any unfortunate news about the economy/market then DEC may be hit harder than it would been prior to yesterday.
Fortunately I am out having had this as my largest holding only 6 months ago.

[apollocreed1] 09/2/2023 12:18

I made a guess as to what the likely issue price was, so at 1am last night I placed 2 limit orders for a friend who's account I manage, at 106.5 and 107.5. They both went through at 106.45 and 106.8- so he got a decent deal even if missed the share offering.

There's no reason that they couldn't have let it close at 9pm like many of the primary bid bookbuild offers and given people a chance - but I'm still sure there was plenty of insider shenanigans here.

[cassini] 09/2/2023 12:12

It's a big club and we ain't in it...

[apollocreed1] 09/2/2023 12:09

The recent downward trend was certainly insider trading. Those in the company and the fund management community were pre-warned that a heavily discounted share offer was in the works so they sold at the higher prices in order to buy back in at the lower price of 105p.

[loganair] 09/2/2023 11:57

I'm always of the opinion that it is better to raise Capital via issuing new shares than via taking on more debt.

Because if the situation becomes tricky can always reduce the dividend then raise it again afterwards eg BHP or Shell where as Debt the company has to keep paying the interest no matter what.

[greygeorge] 09/2/2023 11:48

owenski, the head guy is from a finance and banking background, I believe. So, I wonder why he decides it's better to raise capital at a rate of over 12% (the dividend the company will be paying on these shares placed) when the company has financing in place at an interest rate of 5% ? Of course, the dividend can be reduced, or cut completely, at any time...so there's that.

[loganair] 09/2/2023 11:12

fordtin - I never really take any notice of what brokers says as what they say is only in their interests and for the sole benefit of the broker and not for the benefit of the private retail investor.

[shanklin] 09/2/2023 11:07

It would be helpful if those of us who did apply for shares were advised of how many we received. AIUI, this was meant to happen before 8 am today

[shanklin] 09/2/2023 11:06

The recent share buy backs now look extremely stupid.

[fordtin] 09/2/2023 10:51

It’ll be interesting to see what the analysts make of this acquisition.

It needs to be hugely value accretive if these brokers are to refrain from reducing their target prices.


Jan 23 - Jefferies cuts Diversified Energy price target to 145 (165) pence - 'buy'

Dec 22 - Peel Hunt target price of 180p

Nov 22 - Dowgate “We initiate coverage with a Buy and an NAV-derived target price of 210p”

Nov 22 - Cenkos “We increase our price target following the Q3/22 results to 174p”

Oct 22 - First Berlin “target price raised to 180p from 160p”

[bluemango] 09/2/2023 10:48

#4058 Agreed. In the current situation, it also looks as if rapidity gave them a commercial advantage. They saw an opportunity and had a way to execute it speedily - to the extent that many PIs were taken by surprise and missed out; though only by a penny or two by the looks of it.

[loganair] 09/2/2023 10:37

It seems to me reasonable to say a very good deal for DEC as they managed to get their Placing away at a discount of just 5%.

[yupawiese2010] 09/2/2023 10:28

@basem1 - All the info you need is in the header.

[bluemango] 09/2/2023 09:14

basem1: Depending on your broker, no withholding tax if held in a SIPP. More detail in header.

Re the dividend - if the increase in Free Cash Flow is 20% and the dilution is less than that at 15%, am I being naive in hoping the dividend per share should therefore at least stay the same?

[tag57] 09/2/2023 09:10

I applied through HL across my SIPP, ISA and F&S account and looks like they were all accepted, including those where I needed to sell something to cover it. Looks like it will save a few pence.

[garycook] 09/2/2023 09:06

Yes,Picked up at 106.23p,and 107.15p early doors.Happy with that.

[basem1] 09/2/2023 09:02

Is there withholding tax to pay on the dividend please ?