Diurnal Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 26/8/2022 17:48

Yes, checking the trades it def looks like the 4m earlier in the week was a delayed buy.

The breakaway gap/support zone provided by the Eton update remains. Price is above 50sma

Today's 375611 buy at 11.437p looks the highest price paid all week.

[s34icknote] 26/8/2022 16:23

Some one buying !

[s34icknote] 26/8/2022 16:00

Results soonLet's see how much sales traction they have . 104 percent last count Now two products selling .Update on results soon 7th sept

[bamboo2] 24/8/2022 14:56

I added, but not 4m

[bad gateway] 24/8/2022 13:41

Well noticed and rising off the back of it too. Above the 50dsma now, may the recovery continue.

[s34icknote] 24/8/2022 13:11

4 million trade gone through ?On the buy side ??

[best1467] 16/8/2022 07:28

The 100 million is unlikely Impossible but would be delighted if they can achieve the 10 next year and the 25 y/e following. when Eton originally came out with that 100 million it was suggested by DNL and the house broker to be slightly beyond reach

[weatherman] 15/8/2022 10:18

If Q2 2021 revenue from Alkindi was $0.5m, then 293% would take us to ~$2.0m revenue by Q2 2022. If they can reach $15m by end of FY, which is a big stretch, then they may well exceed the $10m target, and DNL receives $1m, plus ~$1.5m royalties. Admittedly, a lot of guess work there.

[rgmgo] 15/8/2022 08:52

Woops, fat finger, the $1mn milestone is when Eton alkindi sales exceed $10mn in a calendar year...

[rgmgo] 15/8/2022 08:46

Weatherman. You can also cross reference with the Diurnal sales commentary, unfortunately, and deliberately, I don't think you have quite enough disclosure to be definitive on the numbers. I have some guestimates for US alkindi sales which are half yearly rather than quarterly. 1H2022 $1.0mn, 2H2022 $1.5mn , 2022E $2.5mn(out of underlying group sales of $2.8mn), 2023E $8mn. Why the big jump in 2023? Well we know the sequential growth numbers are high and sales only really picked up momentum in 4Q2022 with the game changing Tolmar distribution deal. We also know that alkindi is Eton's biggest product so these numbers are not inconsistent with already reported $4.5mn product sales and royalties revenues for 1H2022 and the $15mn 2023E revenue commentary (they have already booked $5mn royalty licensing revenues so I am guestimating c $10mn Eton product sales. That said, please feel free to unpick the logic, iterate some different numbers. If however these expectations are close to being right, the message is a strong one. 1. The numbers are beginning to get material in the US, 2. DNL could be closing in on the next sales milestone payment (they receive $1mn from Eton when net sales exceed $100 million in a calendar year). We know from a recent Eton call that the Tolmar sales force is going through a reorganisation which may adversely impact shorter term sales but is expected to steepen longer term growth, so this will likely push the $10mn revenue milestone into calendar 2024. It is also worth reiterating that DNL only receives a tiered royalty from Eton ranging from a low double-digit to high teens percentage on net sales of Alkindi Sprinkle, so the impact is muted on the DNL reported revenues. However, if momentum is maintained there are some chunky milestones down the line, $4 million when net sales exceed $25 million in a calendar year, $7.5 million when net sales exceed $50 million in a calendar year etc. Eton believes alkindi has $100mn+ US sales potential. Alkindi US is only one part of the DNL growth story but it might provide some much needed validation of the model. If DNL can successfully negotiate the nearer term funding gap without too much dilution, long suffering shareholders may eventually get some reward.

[weatherman] 13/8/2022 15:44

Who is good at algebra or simultaneous equations?
Eton Inc quarterly revenue as follows
Q2 22 2.4
Q1 22 2.2
Q4 21 1
Q3 21 0.8
Q2 21 0.6
Q1 21 0.4

Alkindi has increased 34% in a quarter, 293% in a year. What contribution is Alkindi in that mix? Clearly growing faster than the overall revenue in last Qu. Eton think they can do $15m in revenue this fy, which seems an ambitious target.

[best1467] 13/8/2022 13:25

Don’t forget it’s been a rapid crash in the last 6 months as with Shield DNL have possibly approached the money and Equity markets and been knocked back then in come the informed shorters and we end up here

[best1467] 13/8/2022 13:19

I’m amazed it’s got to this valuation but they will need cash with the change of direction taken which for me should of been delayed until sales had to get to a level to fund the Champagne study and the other study of which the name eludes me.
Alkindi is performing extremely well While Effmody which was thought to be a larger opportunity still is but possibly not until approved for the further indications.
We have had the FDA delay on the Ditest start also which was mentioned as a possible opportunity to stile a deal earlier than planned to elevate the cash situation.
So lots of unknowns at the moment and uncertainty which as created the opportunity to hammer the valuation but I’m told all will be revealed in Aug / Sept

[bamboo2] 12/8/2022 19:19

At that kind of figure, the share price here would be around 55-60p

Might have to get a few more!

[bamboo2] 12/8/2022 19:17

best1467, I see, thanks. £100m or $100m?

Looking at the trigger payments, I can see why you have that kind of figure in mind.

$1 million when net sales exceed $10 million in a calendar year
$4 million when net sales exceed $25 million in a calendar year
$7.5 million when net sales exceed $50 million in a calendar year
$12.5 million when net sales exceed $100 million in a calendar year
$20 million when net sales exceed $200 million in a calendar year

IPGroup are known to take shares instead of cash on some deals, so they may consider ETON stock as part payment. IPGroup have 29.5% of DNL. That could create the flexibility needed to get a deal together.

[best1467] 12/8/2022 19:02

Bamboo posted that same thought several weeks ago after Eaton Had the 50 m windfall. But I would take minimum £100 million

[simon_64] 12/8/2022 15:49

Good figures from Eton, this should be our low point.

[bamboo2] 12/8/2022 15:02

Any long termers, if my maths is correct, market cap at 12p share price is just £20.4m

Would Eton think about making an offer? They have a substantial cash pile.

[best1467] 12/8/2022 12:05

Lots of old news posted today for some reason

[s34icknote] 12/8/2022 11:35

Reckon stock will be in short supply soon !

[deanmatlazin] 12/8/2022 11:23

Open Offer

and Notice of General Meeting

Diurnal Group plc (AIM: DNL), the specialty pharmaceutical company targeting patient needs in chronic endocrine (hormonal) diseases, is pleased to announce the completion of the Bookbuild announced earlier today, which was oversubscribed.

A total of 28,507,144 Placing Shares have been conditionally placed at the Issue Price of 70 pence per New Ordinary Share alongside a conditional subscription by certain Directors of the Company for 64,285 Subscription Shares, also at the Issue Price, to raise a total of approximately GBP 20.0 million for the Company (before expenses).

From April 2021 - Placing 70p/share. Long way for them to recoup the losses.

I hope this will come good soon. Nice recovery play

[s34icknote] 12/8/2022 11:02

Looks like buyers piling in !!

[bamboo2] 12/8/2022 10:44

Buyers beginning to catch on to the significance of the news from Eton Pharma.

[deanmatlazin] 12/8/2022 10:32

£16m in the bank. £4m in revenue and expect doubled by next year and treble year after. I think this is as low as it can get and should recover from here.