Diurnal Share Discussion Threads

[simon_64] 01/3/2021 11:44

Just listened to the podcast again and picked up on the point made the approval could come in any day this month.

[simon_64] 01/3/2021 08:50

Your welcome guys.

The problem DNL have with new investors is that not many people have heard of them, i only came across them last year and i am an active trader and that was a tip off someone on the SNG thread.

They need to be doing some PR for themselves, The AJ Bell webcast might help a little.

[affc21] 01/3/2021 08:49

Tried to un-jumble the Transcript, but hopefully you get the jist of it.

Transcription taken directly from the Otter recording app by the way, so may be a few mistaken transcripts.

[affc21] 01/3/2021 08:47

JW podcast transcript pt3:

JW back in July, when it doubled, what was that announcement. Looking back, it was pretty price monetary extension. Positive details took a regulatory meeting with the US FDA okay so went from 30 pence there back in July to 60 pence Brett in two sessions, they came back a little bit to like 45 that grinded back over 70 have been going sideways pretty much donor 60 But, yeah, who knows.
...
VA People have been waiting this amount. This is the announcement that I think the markets waiting for. So, you know, it's imminent, so that's that's why I'm flagging it today.

[tburns] 01/3/2021 08:46

Fantastic podcast Dimon, thanks for sharing going to be a good week. Nice start

[affc21] 01/3/2021 08:44

JW podcast transcript pt2:

JW was pretty cool cool as long as there was a chart there. That was Ticket Ticket there's D and L is it done.
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VA Yeah, D and L. That's right, that's right. Just remember this is a risky play right in the sense that you know buying right before an announcement. You could see it could go the wrong way right yeah but the balance of probability is that it should go the right way, because they've had a correspondence with the regulator, the regulator encouraged them to submit. And it is for an orphan indication where there is a need, you know there's a real need. So, but it's true. And we have seen it time and time again you know we have seen it before. This could go the wrong way. You know, but my, my, my bet and the one I'm taking is it's going to go the right way and if it does, it could have a significant uplift and certainly it should, is what I mean in that, you know, they would have a big market to go after, and they don't need to go they don't need to get all of it they don't have they don't even need to get to 20% penetration of a $300 million markets you're talking $60 million in revenues potentially over the coming years. And if you're not, you know, 80% gross margin that tells you what the valuation should be right. This is back of envelope, you know, you know, let's say let's say we got 250 million in revenues, out of a $300 million market and you could you could argue they could get up to 50% of that market because because it's an orphan indication. Okay. So, usually in these indications it's because the the the need is so high that that you know you you probably, you know get pretty big uptake of the of the product, but even if you took say 50 million. Let's say it's a $50 million product, making it a $40 million gross margin product that goes straight through the bottom line for this company. you don't I mean effectively. So you know you take an uplift I don't know 567 times of that, I don't know, I don't know what the multiple you want a big take five times multiple, that's a $200 million valuation for this for this product in this market. So you can see why I'm saying that the current market cap of the business is 85 I think million Sterling call it a roughly 100 onder Plus, you can see a multi multiple of the current valuation on this product alone in Europe alone, by the way, then there's all the other, you know, global markets that they can go after one at a time obviously they have to get regulatory approval, but they've, the beauty of this company is they've done it all for their first product al Kindi, and they would be, you know, just replicating that same distribution that same regulatory approval, kind of sequence of events with all the other markets. The US is different because the US requires different data. So that would be that that's carved out separately but post Europe, it would be other other markets, which they, it's a well trodden path for this company. So, again binary outcome a little bit binary definitely skewed binary upwards as in on a positive just approval could happen that you get a negative, you know, a negative result there, so bear that in mind, but on the upside, if it comes through positively which it should, and I hope it does. Because I'm older, so you know if it all goes in the in the right the right way, then I can see a lot of upside to this business. Yeah. So

[affc21] 01/3/2021 08:42

JW podcast transcript pt1:

VA So diurnal I've flagged it in the past, it's one I own it's a company I like a lot. It's another company generally speaking, that's good value because they have a product on the market and admittedly that product is had some trouble in terms of sales. I mean, we're talking about a small product it's not like we're only talking about one to 2 million in revenues. But, you know, it's, it's one of these companies that is post COVID, I think will benefit from the you know the kind of the unlocking of, of all of these European markets. So, you know, their their initial product al Kindi I think will start to take off again. So we'll see a bit of an echo post COVID, but most importantly is they're they're waiting for an approval from the European made the, the AMA, the European regulator for their second product which is crona Court, which is, you know, expected this quarter. It's imminent so in the next six weeks we expect to have an answer that's that's the one that's, you know, it would be obviously if they don't get it that's bad news so it is a bit of a binary outcome here in the sense that, you know, there's a punt. That one has to take. But, you know, if it goes down, it would go down I think 50% on that news but if it goes up, it could go up multiple fold, because the market for their second product grown accord is in the in in Europe it's something like $300 million market, which they'd make probably about 80% margin on now they're not going to get the full 300 million overnight, But, you know, even if you calculate 10 to 20% market penetration at 80% gross margin. You can see why. There's a lot of value in that in this in this announcement. So they're waiting on a European approval, it's, it's scheduled to come in in q1, which leaves us, a month and a half, less than a month. Sorry, just over a month of waiting time it could happen any day

[aimmafia] 01/3/2021 08:41

Please be the day where we break out. It's long long long overdue now. Surely the herd will be buying into chronocourt approval now.

[affc21] 01/3/2021 08:20

Thanks for that podcast Simon,Well worth listening to and may bring in some new investors. It would certainly help in getting some momentum behind the share price.Vadim Alexandre, Head of Healthcare at share price Angel, spoke about DNL being a binary bet, with risks to the downside, but the company was heavily skewed to the upside.That was my take from the podcast which may be biased seeing as I am a shareholder in the company. So please do your own research.

[aimmafia] 01/3/2021 07:43

Hopefully some upwards movement into chrono approval this week. Morning all.

[simon_64] 01/3/2021 06:27

Morning dudes my mate Justin Waite discusses DNL.

[simon_64] 28/2/2021 10:15

Yes only 22 trading days, things should start heating up now due to FOMO, if approval goes ahead they will be very difficult to buy as you can't buy in any great quantity now.

[simon_64] 28/2/2021 09:35

Your welcome geraldus looking good man.

[geraldus] 28/2/2021 06:43

Thanks for that.Plenty to go for, with upside to match.

[simon_64] 27/2/2021 08:25

Morning dudes and a beautiful one to.

Let's see what happens with Chrono in a months time, i expect a flurry of emails immediately after approval as all the building blocks,partners are in place and see what upfront fees they do or do not receive that will give us all a better idea of their strategy.

Good luck to all my fellow Welshman for today.

Ogi,Ogi,Ogi.

[l0ngterm] 26/2/2021 21:23

Nailed, further dilution

[tburns] 26/2/2021 11:03

The upfront fee debate sits between cashflow and longer term profitability for me. The disease is there, if you can afford to take a lower upfront fee and negotiate a higher price thereafter per unit I would do that. That said I would rather take a bigger upfront fee for Capex than see further dilution

[l0ngterm] 26/2/2021 10:04

China do accept external/foreign trials and results for orphan/rare diseases. I can't see why for alkindi they would need a phase three, unless it's not on the Chinese approved list. Anyone? If on the list then this seems like a large market for DNL, but a small upfront fee. Your thoughts?HttpS://globalforum.diaglobal.org/issue/october-2018/new-development-of-rare-disease-policy-in-china/

[aimmafia] 26/2/2021 09:08

5k sell lol.

[best1467] 26/2/2021 07:03

Forgot about China without looking back they do need a Ph3 from memory so 0.5 upfront not sure about the Royalties but would imagine Mid Teens let’s not forget it straight on the bottom line

[l0ngterm] 25/2/2021 21:07

What was the deal with China? 0.5 and 12.5 million follow up? Are you expecting the same for Japan?

[best1467] 25/2/2021 19:58

Longterm

The only Licensing partner to date Is Eaton for ALK which had a small upfront but as I said both Alkindi and Chronocort in pharama terms are small markets in comparison so your not going to get large upfront payments.
The extension to include Canada you could argue could have include a further small upfront but Eaton appear to be quite bullish regarding uptake and if they get within 75% of the $100 million for the USA alone then around $10 million PA in Royalties at sector discount to average PE of say 15 your looking at $150 Mcap on USA alone just for ALK.
If Ema Give a positive on Chronocort then you would imagine a USA-licensing deal to follow albeit sill the need for a small Ph3 I would expect around $7/$10 million upfront with mid teen Royalties as a slightly larger market.
I’m frustrated with the current valuation but it’s not difficult to see the potential from the current valuation the next 12 months should certainly give a clear indication.

I’m expecting a valuation this time next year on the back of a positive decision on Chronocort and the expected substantial global uptake of ALK of around £220 million

[s34icknote] 25/2/2021 11:43

Just keep buying them dips !!!