3.3% yield is of no interest but its London centric assets make it appealing to overseas investors is i guess why its progressing |
Looking more interesting than it has for a number of years.. |
Goldman Sachs raises Derwent London price target to 2,690 (2,680) pence - 'buy' |
Berenberg raises Derwent London price target to 2,700 (2,494) pence - 'buy' |
Thanks Phil, up about 20% from March.
Have it on a watchlist. |
Evening EI .
No opinion on the property sector . My wife holds a few DLN so I look in now and again . I hold SGRO mainly for the data centre play. |
Phil. Any view here, thanks. |
Derwent London upgrades rental guidance thanks to ‘world class’ London |
Q3 business update is an improvement on Q2 and shows parts of London still moving along well mind. As usual with DLN gold standard in info disclosure and some hefty rent frees being given but has often been the way with them so lagged income has to be taken into consideration.
Clearly demand for high end flats isn't down in London as they've managed to flog 4 off plan at Baker St already raking in 21.5m.
Because its low divi yield not on my watchlist so missed out on the impressive bounce back last week. |
Interims show that London isn't as rosy for DLN as some of its peers very little rental growth with slight drop in NAV. That said they are holding onto tenants and have a fair amount of additional income from either rent frees or contracted increases coming through over next few years. There two big developments are largely supported by pre lets which is just as well giving debt pile being added to.
Lousy yield makes it of no interest at these levels but suspect it will have a floor otherwise a predator may come calling.
Still top of the class with the info they provide. |
I bought back in to GPE today, just a small amount to start with. GPE has very approx 30% in West End retail, DLN about 10%. Helical the most concentrated office play of the 3 with approx 98% office.
I can't remember this level of NAV discount, may be in the very teeth of the GFC. |
Rents seem to be holding up. I got a new on in the City agreed last week, 30% more than previous tenant was paying, and not too long a rent free. |
thanks for the reply igbersponk. i see it is slipping again today and might go through the 2187 support area |
I added a small amount of Helical today and monitoring GPE for a buy.
GPE, DLN and HLCL all could be taken out by an overseas buyer, however that's a highly speculative reason to buy. All 3 REITS sold assets over multiple years to the cycle top, particularly GPE, which appears to excell at crystallising profits. This sector niche may be worth watching for an opportunity, but as arja mentions the charts look ugly atm
with lower levels more than likely on the way. |
Interest rates - lot of deals collapsing this week. |
DLN and the property companies have awful downtrending charts . I rarely have time to study the fundamentals but it is mainly because of rising interest rates or less demand for renting in the cities ?? |
TRCML whilst London certainly facing increasing vacancy levels not sure its a SF situation by a long way yet so sitting on a 50% discount seems ludicrous but all sense of rational thinking is being abandoned currently. DLN are in reasonable shape over rental income currently but have some hefty committed (£650m) capex on buildings which im not clear whether they have raised the debt to cover it but they have no immediate refinancing until 2024. Never interested me this one because divi yield low and still is at this crashed share price and because scope for raising divi isn't great as its only just covered now but they do have new developments being crystallised with tenants so it won't need to drop.
Guess the attraction here is whether an overseas buyer moves in to hoover it up at this discount aided an abetted by being able to do it for 20% less dollars as well. |
Thank you for for your comments. They didn't influence me to sell (which I did a while back) but glad i did as I needed the money to buy more of LSEG. The steady decline in DLN smacks of the San Francisco syndrome. |
TRCML public Transport operators in London still reporting significant reductions in passenger levels even on the "in work" days of Tue/Weds/Thurs of c65-70% of pre covid demand much lower on Mon/Fri. So you would think this would be a proxy for a longer term reduced demand for office space in the long run although I get this is going to be a slow burn. My initial view with DLN was they were at some risk with quite a high level of expiries or breaks coming due but to my surprise that hasn't been an issue for them so I guess there is certainly a place for offices in certain sectors that will underpin them. So i still see businesses will run down there overall office accommodation but more likely to be back office type space that gets reduced rather than that which allows collaboration.
Yield too lousy here to interest me though. |
And in the same vein, AXA office scheme in Fenchurch Street with owners The Clothworkers’ livery company, includes a new Livery Hall on the site as well as 650,000 sq ft of offices.
Axa with partner Lipton Rogers recently completed the City’s tallest tower at 22 Bishopsgate and is taking on another scheme in the face of high demand for quality office space.
Isabelle Scemama, Global Head of AXA IM Alts, and CEO AXA IM Real Assets, said: “Since the pandemic there has been a pronounced increase in demand from occupiers for high quality, sustainable and wellness-focussed offices.
“We have seen this first hand at our flagship development 22 Bishopsgate which is now 80% let and expect this flight to quality to become even more acute over the coming years as businesses adapt to new working patterns". |
suggest read what Sol Zakay, chairman and CEO of Topland Group, says (about Verdant, its proposed office scheme in Farringdon) : “We believe there has been an over-reaction to the shifting dynamics of the City’s office market now that hybrid working is here to stay. This, coupled with the prevailing economic headwinds, has seen some developers get cold feet.
“As a result, we are facing a shortage of quality, new space over the next three years. A sustainable, high-quality building situated on the Elizabeth Line route is ideally poised to capture the demand from major corporate occupiers from a number of sectors that are looking for landmark headquarters buildings in what is still one of the world’s premier business locations. " |
Circa £35M gross profit on Bush House |
Given all the negativity about returning to offices and the relentless increase in vacancy levels across London this is holding up better than I thought. In part I overlooked the amount of additional income that is baked in over next two years from pre lets. Yes they are getting some rentals away and keeping existing tenants but I wonder at what costs. The recent letting at Victoria to Fora had 34 months rent free. However, 2% yield isn't enough to even make it on my watch list currently but got ti give the 10/10 for a very comprehensive dataset in the presentation slides. |
Solid results, I don't hold anymore but my wife does. |
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