Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[chadders] 23/10/2019 13:21

Cpo back to $580

[rivaldo] 10/10/2019 08:31

A reasonably positive Q3 trading update today (Q3 is usually DKL's quietest quarter).

It looks like 2019 will be a record year for production. And selling prices have risen in late Q3/early Q4 - CPO prices have bounced further and are now at $555.

VSA Capital have retained their Buy and 12p target.

Encouragingly, they note:

"Data from Malaysia this morning showed palm oil production for September (and stockpiles) in that country increasing by a smaller amount than expected, partly due to dryness in key regions. This should provide some support for pricing as we enter the SE Asian peak season."

The closing outlook from the RNS shows the potential here from an �8.9m m/cap - particularly if increasing production coincides with more normal CPO pricing:

"Together with the recent strengthening of our balance sheet following the AgDevCo debt refinancing in July 2019, this is an exciting period in our development, particularly with work underway at our cashew processing project in Tiebissou where an initial 10,000 tonnes per annum plant is on course to be commissioned in H2 2020. At this point, DekelOil will not only be known as Dekel Agri-Vision, but will also have two producing projects each generating material and diversified revenue streams."

[chadders] 07/10/2019 18:48

rivaldo, thanks for the effort. Much appreciated.

[pugugly] 04/10/2019 11:30

rivaldo - Thanks for taking time to type-up and post -

[rivaldo] 04/10/2019 10:18

I see the CPO price has now bounced to $540.

Chadders, great posts elsewhere re the presentation from jk400 which I hope he won't mind me sharing:

"Lincoln hosting, Youval Rasin and Shai Kol also online.

Questions in 3 categories - Palm Oil, Cashew, general.
Why the difference between sales and production in H1? Mainly due to stock on hand. Line lost to Youval and Shai.
Extraction rate being off against previous years? Mainly due to farmers overharvesting due to lower CPO prices. Too early/too late farmers trying to compensate.
CPO price moving forward? Happy that prices will improve. Holding up quite well during Asian high season. Majority view $600 - $650 expected in 2020. Long term "we're bullish", short term confident for next year.

Line restored to Shai.
FFB for the year compared to last year? Can't quite understand what Shai is saying, but think it's something about a record year for Dekeloil (!!)
Fertiliser programme - 200 farmers on pilot. 95% payment on schedule. Rolling out on a much bigger scale. Development fund willing to support the programme. Trying to share the risk between DKL, banks and fertiliser producers.

Minimum 1 year before fertiliser programme starts to yield results.
Talking now about RSPO, next year to complete whole certification.

Moving on to cashews. Convinced we can buy the right quantity. Been training for 2 years to ensure available supply.
Government in Ivory Coast subsidising production of cashews in the country. Won't be a problem buying supply of cashew nuts.
Do we need to replicate FFB style pickup centres for cashews? No because there is no rush to collect like FFB's need processing in 48-72 hours, cashews can be stored for months.

Line lost again.

Cashews will be sold in private selling arrangements for export. Companies in Europe looking to take entire production, shipped via containers. Different to Palm Oil, that's sold at the factory gate.

Increase holding in cashew project? 17% option, quite a long process (2021). Will consider as we move through production process.

Rainy season has slowed down construction re cashew, timeframe as early as possible in H2.
3 weeks of heavy rain, hoping to share pictures within a month or so from now.

Upcoming name change
Reflects slight change in strategy. Diversifying. Want to play to our strengths. Expansion strategy in to neighbouring countries (longer term).

Dekeloil will remain name locally. Dekel Nuts possible for cashew business. Overseen by Agrivision.

3 week process to change name. Old certificates remain valid, etc. New website link, social media, etc.

Valuation certainly overshot downwards.

General meeting next Thursday. Looking forward to rebounding from an incredibly low share price over the next 12 months.

End of call. Plenty to digest."

[pugugly] 03/10/2019 14:56

Posted yeterday after market closed 5.8 million at 4p - So MM making some 30% Lubberly!! Any guesses as to who was unloading and whether any more to come?

[chadders] 02/10/2019 13:16

Anyone involved or heard anything about the presentation/conference call held this morning?

[rivaldo] 02/10/2019 12:32

Bouncing nicely. Looks like someone was desperate for funds!

The CPO price is still above where it was for most of mid-2019. Hopefully the long-term bounce that most commentators are predicting will take hold again.

[pugugly] 01/10/2019 11:04

Looks like an iceberg dump might be in progress - Could Miton have decided to get out?

Also palm oil prices falling

[lyceeuk] 01/10/2019 10:26

whats going on here this morning ??

[rivaldo] 25/9/2019 09:22

VSA Capital retain their Buy and 12p target, and conclude as follows:

"With a potentially record year in terms of CPO production, a second agricultural project coming online within the next 12 months, refinanced debt with a supportive long-term financing partner and higher CPO prices in H2, we maintain our BUY recommendation and DCF-derived target price of 12p."

They also note:

"DKL’s decision to carry over 3,000t of stock from H1 for sale in the low
season looks like a smart decision given the recent palm oil price increase."

[chadders] 25/9/2019 07:42

Very positive half year results. Recovery under way supported by new initiatives, rising CPO pricing, normalising of harvests and excellent management.

[rivaldo] 25/9/2019 07:40

If I'm not mistaken there's rather a bouncy, upbeat feel to today's interims.

Essentially break-even for H1 - with a 29% increase in EBITDA to €1.4m - and lots going on in the background. CPO prices have risen, and cashew production isn't too far away. Funding and partner/investor support are strong.

Happy to hold and wait for the new initiatives to come to fruition.

[chadders] 18/9/2019 17:48

PAL doing nicely on the back of their first shipment of palm oil. Interesting Co valuation compared to DKL....

[chadders] 04/9/2019 13:10

Thanks mfhmfh. Hopefully Q3 update will change sentiment.

[mfhmfh] 03/9/2019 18:04

VSA Capital today reiterates buy rating and 12p target price.

[chadders] 03/9/2019 07:36

Has the Dabou nursery been mentioned before? Guitry has been spoken about many times so it's good to see more progress. A lot going for DKL at the moment.

[rivaldo] 30/8/2019 14:59

REA Holdings (RE.) are up around 20% today, presumably on the rising CPO price.

Yet, as pointed out elsewhere, they're exposed to the fragile Indonesian market whilst DKL are leaders in a solid and environmentally approved ecosystem in the IC and also have the cashew market to go for in the relatively near future.

[chadders] 27/8/2019 17:47

Indeed. Q3 production and sales update will be interesting and hopefully will signal a start of the recovery from a ridiculously low share price. No advice intended.

[rivaldo] 27/8/2019 13:44

...and yesterday the palm oil price soared to $590.

[rivaldo] 22/8/2019 12:34

Yep - now up to $543, its highest since early March'19 and up from the $480 lows. Let's hope it continues. It's certainly what a number of pundits were predicting would happen.

[chadders] 16/8/2019 09:27

Cpo price starting to recover.

[fillipe] 29/7/2019 09:12

A 310k lot taken today @3.15p

f

[rivaldo] 09/7/2019 10:39

Encouraging RNS today re the cashew nuts facility, with everything progressing smoothly and first production expected in less than a year now.

VSA Capital retain their Buy and 12p target today, and conclude:

"VSA Comment

DKL’s FY 2018 demonstrated the risk of being exposed to one agricultural commodity. Therefore, we believe that diversification into the cashew sector is a shrewd one that should help the company deal with any subsequent difficult years in its palm oil business.

With construction now underway, we look forward to first production next June. Although this represents the end of the cashew season in Côte d'Ivoire, DKL will be stockpiling cashews from smallholders in the months prior to opening for subsequent processing by the facility.

Assuming DKL exercises its option to gain a c.55% stake in the project, we estimate that the project could deliver an attributable profit of €2.2m by 2022 to the group.

We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 12p."

[mfhmfh] 08/7/2019 16:49

hxxps://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/02/cpo-prices-rebound-on-news-of-china-buying-soyoil/