Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[mr doughnut1] 21/9/2023 17:24

3 percent of the company exchanged hands just after 3.30 this afternoon. This may be the reason that the share price has remained around the 3 pence mark.

[rodney101] 19/9/2023 11:02

Big debt pile

[rivaldo] 18/9/2023 08:21

New interview with WH Ireland's analyst:



Conclusion:

"How do you see the company in terms of fair value?

When operating at full capacity in FY2024, Dekel’s newly commissioned cashew processing operation should deliver a step change in the group’s profitability and cash generation, as this project goes from being a cash drain in recent years to a strong contributor for the group. We see potential for the shares to re-rate as this project is successfully executed and as the company reduces its borrowings following the completion of the investment phase of its cashew operation. Our fair value stands at 9.5p."

[pugugly] 09/9/2023 16:32

varies> Major reason I suspect as to why trading well below brokers fair value. It is what I call the Wagner effect. OK Putin ha got rid of him but the Russian African policy seems to be still in place.

[varies] 09/9/2023 13:20

What is the political risk in Cote d'Ivoire ?
Relations between France and some of its former colonies in West Africa have become difficult in recent years and several Francophile leaders have been ousted.
All DKL's good work would be no benefit to us if someone like Mugabe takes over !

[rugs3] 08/9/2023 19:10

Constructive post lyceeuk. You could always sell whatever you hold and invest elsewhere....

[lyceeuk] 08/9/2023 17:56

me to been in too long

[mortlolc] 08/9/2023 10:23

I've been holding these & averaging down since before the consolidation back in 2016( feels like forever!) as I do like the company long term prospects. However,i think that the only way the share price will start to make & hold real positive gains will be when a dividend is paid again. The consistent promise of jam tomorrow & failure to deliver is going to take more than a few months of good production figures- even though they are very good. Consistency is what has been missing for years now- but I'm keeping the faith as I'm hoping things are finally turning in the right direction.

[royalalbert] 08/9/2023 09:49

Rivaldo Next months figures will be interesting, Palm oil looking healthy. If the cashews are increasing and efficiency coming to the fore then we should start to see an upward momentum take effect in the share price.

Next year we could even see divis, now that would be something.

[rivaldo] 08/9/2023 09:35

WH Ireland retain their 9.5p fair value target, and forecast €0.4c EPS this year, rising to €0.9c next year.

In particular, they note that "cumulative CPO production in the year to date is over 80% of our expectation for the full year in volume terms, giving good confidence over a strong financial performance in this division".

And as regards cashews "Further updates are expected on Q3 2023 operations during October 2023".

In summary:

"August palm oil production well ahead of FY2022

Today’s August production update from Dekel’s palm oil operation reflects a continuation of strong results from the business in recent months, with production up 38% over last year and a marginal increase in pricing month on month. Strong production in August follows record monthly production numbers earlier in the year, combining with historically elevated pricing to position DKL for a strong financial performance from this division for the full year. Cumulatively, production in the year to date is now over 80% of our forecast for the full year, giving the company good visibility at this stage for the palm oil operation......Our FY forecasts are unchanged on the back of this morning’s update, while our 9.5p fair value assessment is reaffirmed".

[rivaldo] 08/9/2023 07:36

Another outstanding monthly CPO update. CPO sales are up 56% and production is up 38%.

PKO sales are up over 1100%!

And DKL's financial performance for this H2 "continues to track well ahead of H2 2022".

Excellent stuff:

[2vdm] 24/8/2023 08:03

Pugugly. Agree, hopefully a volume update next month.

[pugugly] 24/8/2023 07:36

Agreed good news in respect of reliability of product - Excellent selling point to customers and potential customers. However would have liked mote details on volumes - Being a cynic "continues to improve" could mean anything upwards from an extra sack per day - but message received is "we are still having problems but hope to have them sorted out by October"

[mr doughnut1] 24/8/2023 07:34

Another piece of the jigsaw slots into place. Very welcome news indeed.

[rivaldo] 24/8/2023 07:31

An excellent cashew update today, with DKL's facilities passing the BRC Global Food standard assessment with a grade A, the highest possible grade accreditation, helping "to achieve premium prices in the near future".

Plus production volumes continue to improve, with another quarterly update coming in October.

Unambiguously good news :o))

[rugs3] 11/8/2023 15:54

Or perhaps to be able post a few consecutive positive monthly reports....

[riskvsreward] 11/8/2023 15:32

They always get noticed when they missed their promise and expectations and price crashed. This time round they are reporting better numbers but the price moves sideways at best. That tells that there is a confidence and credibility issue with the company. Only way to change that is to show investor the money and that is what will count.

[royalalbert] 11/8/2023 15:18

H8888 you have to remember they report monthly on CPO production, so "They are never going to get noticed" is irrelevant as such.

The next quarter update regarding cashews will be interesting though.

[hrvey8888] 10/8/2023 18:01

A small company reporting a good update in the middle of the summer. They are never going to get noticed. My guess is that they will have better luck in September and October when investors are back at the desks.

[rivaldo] 10/8/2023 12:17

Given the cashew ramp-up the priority is to reduce debt - and the cashflows should be rolling in in earnest this year given the forecast €6.7m EBITDA and consequent €5.4m reduction in debt.

Beginning with the H1 just completed.

[riskvsreward] 10/8/2023 12:05

need hard cash earnings and hard cash dividends to restore any credibility to the management and move the share price.

[redy123] 10/8/2023 11:54

And these latest monthly production figures for the Palm Oil business means that they have exceeded FY22 FFB Processed and Sales of Palm Oil in the 7 months of this financial year. Plus we have Cashews ramping up. I think they could beat there Sales forecast this year.

[ptolemy] 10/8/2023 11:01

Strong update. But I see no evidence of management spreading the good-news story. No conference attendance, no interviews, new articles, etc. Come on management get off your backsides!

Ptolemy - 21 Apr 2023 - The strategy and numbers are playing out and operations management need to continue on the path. Senior management now need to focus on elevating DKLs profile and 'getting the story out.'

[rivaldo] 10/8/2023 09:57

WH Ireland reaffirm their 9.5p fair value price, and forecast 0.4c EPS this year rising to 0.9c EPS next year, i.e 0.35p EPS rising to 0.78p EPS.

They summarise as follows:

"Encouraging July palm oil operational update, speaks well of FY23E

Reflecting Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production 2.4x higher than a year ago, an encouraging monthly palm oil update this morning caps a strong period in recent months for the palm oil operation overall. Progress announced this morning is on the back of a productive high season which generated a strong and progressive recovery in CY23E, while in parallel the group also succeeded in bringing the new cashew operation on stream as highlighted in last month’s H1 operational update.

DKL is an increasingly diversified agricultural group focused on the in West Africa, its activities including a fully operational, sustainably sourced palm oil business alongside its new and growing cashew processing operation.

As we start to enter the low season now, this morning’s update confirms that strong volumes and prices in the key palm oil business leave FY23E well-underpinned, while sustaining a strong platform for growth, which will include cashews (as of last month, successfully transitioned to a continuous process). Prices, although lower than the exceptional peaks since this time last year, have moved up a touch on the prior month, and are expected to follow the familiar pattern of rising further from now, on the back of low season relative scarcity, Our FY forecasts are unchanged on the back of this morning’s update, while our 9.5p fair value assessment is reaffirmed."

"Cashews move to continuous production

The previous update from DKL highlighted the onset of continuous production for cashews which seems to promise well for further increases in cashew volumes in the second half in line as anticipated, and beyond this, the development of the complementary cashew business strand which feeds into sales and EBITDA uplift in the coming year in particular.

• Forecasts / valuation

Strong palm oil progress provides excellent foundations for our expectations which, in turn, underpin our 9.5p valuation and our expectation of cash-generation in the current year and as the company moves into FY24E."