Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[empirestate] 15/3/2016 09:13

This should be good for cpo prices as Malaysia introduces export taxes

* Malaysia sets April crude palm oil export tax at 5 percent

* Plantations to rush to export CPO before tax kicks in-trader

* Analyst sees exports tilting in favour of refined products (Adds quotes, background)

KUALA LUMPUR, March 15 Malaysia raised its tax on crude palm oil (CPO) exports to 5 percent for April, a government circular showed on Tuesday, ending a duty-free policy held since May 2015.

The higher tax could dent exports from the world's No.2 palm oil producer after Indonesia and drag benchmark Malaysian prices of the tropical oil, which hit one-month highs this week amid output worries due to a crop-damaging El Nino weather event.

"Big plantations will be rushing to take out CPO from the country. That should put some pressure on domestic figures and supplies and take exports higher before the tax kicks in," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.

After that exports are expected to come down, the trader added. "Producers will be most affected, big players who have been exporting a lot of CPO will be at a disadvantage."

A CPO export tax is, however, good news for local refiners as it will help keep more crude palm oil at home, weighing on domestic prices and improving downstream margins. There are no duties on Malaysian exports of refined palm oil products.

"This ... will change the export percentage between CPO and processed palm oil products," said Alan Lim, a plantations analyst at MIDF Research.

"We do expect some reduction in CPO exports but this will be compensated. If we compare this against Indonesia's $50 a tonne levy on CPO, Malaysia is still more competitive."

The reference price for Malaysia's export duty is set based on a formula taking the average of spot palm prices for a period of 30 days prior to when the tax is set.

The Southeast Asian nation calculated a reference price of 2,500.34 ringgit ($607.17) per tonne for April. A price above 2,250 ringgit incurs a tax, which starts from 4.5 percent and can reach a maximum 8.5 percent.

Palm oil futures are now at 2,594 ringgit, near a one-month top of 2,632 ringgit hit on Monday. Last week at an industry meet, experts said they see benchmark prices trading between 2,700-3,000 ringgit by June as dryness linked to El Nino hurts output growth.

But an ongoing slump in export demand, which is expected to worsen once the Malaysian tax kicks in, should help offset the impact of lower output, traders said.

"Exports will not look good, there has been no demand for months. Everyone is waiting for India to buy," said another trader from Kuala Lumpur. "Ramadan demand will come in April, but they will buy palm olein."

[empirestate] 15/3/2016 01:21

not a bad thing having an investment in a company that operates it's business in Ivory Coast

Côte d’Ivoire overtakes Nigeria as best bet for investors in Africa

by Kate Douglas on '10 March 2016'

226
Abidjan, Ivory Coast
Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
The second Africa Prospects Indicators report, recently released by Nielsen Africa, shows that Côte d’Ivoire has taken over Nigeria’s leading position in terms of overall outlook for opportunities for existing and potential investors. The report ranks leading African countries based on their macro-economic, business, consumer and retail prospects.

Nigeria, which held the top position overall last year, has slipped to fourth place – a result of a slump in commodity prices, which have driven down the country’s macro-economic indicators. This has also impeded consumer prospects and overall investor confidence.

“Despite this, Nigerians continue to be some of the most optimistic consumers on the continent, with more positive sentiment for their job prospects and personal finances, even though immediate spending intentions and levels of spare cash are more strained,” notes the report.

Côte d’Ivoire, on the other hand, now holds the top position in terms of its retail outlook and has improved in the ranking in business sentiment. While it only comes in third in terms of its macro-economic rank, the report cites its solid economic growth, stable inflation climate, and recent peaceful elections as reasons why the country has a good investment environment.

[empirestate] 14/3/2016 11:24

CPO price looking keen at USD670, might see a breakout on the CPO price chart soon. Which would be nice.

[empirestate] 10/3/2016 08:41

Future cpo price expectation

On a positive note, falling crude palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia (together accounting for nearly 90 percent of the world's total CPO output) will have a positive effect on benchmark palm oil futures. CPO futures in Kuala Lumpur are trading around 2,540 ringgit per ton this week after having climbed about 5 percent in February. Top CPO industry analyst Dorab Mistry sees prices climb further by about 20 percent to 3,000 per ton later this year, although he also emphasized that CPO demand from key markets (for example India and China) remains bleak.

[empirestate] 10/3/2016 08:29

here is the reason for the spike in prices

Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

[empirestate] 10/3/2016 08:15

cpo price graph looks like it could reach a break out point, which would be nice

[empirestate] 10/3/2016 08:12

Mach100, if think we will have to have the Q1 production numbers to make punters wake up and smell the roses. I had almost forgot about the debt cancellation in Dec that will add Euro 500,000 to the 2016 bottom line, so hopefully we could see a Euro 1.7-2 million profit for 2016 put this on a understated p/e of around 9 ish at the current price, which is far too low for this growth co.

[mach100] 08/3/2016 18:15

hi Empire, It looks as if its ready for the next move up. Buyers paying 1,24p so a bit more volume could see the bid raised to 1.2p. High season now as H and T says so we want to capitalise.

[here and there] 08/3/2016 17:10

cpo price $665 in IC now, just as they are entering high season

[empirestate] 08/3/2016 11:48

My guess on the 2015 net profit is between Euro 500-750k

[empirestate] 07/3/2016 12:56

Mach100, just added a few more to my pile, so let's hope we see some more positive momentum on the share price

[mach100] 04/3/2016 18:35

I think that 790k is a regular seller empire. There have been quite a few trades around 800k. I think rather than regret it for whatever reason he is happy to leak his shares into the market. I reckon he doesn't want to flood the market as it would thrash tHe share price Nice net buying today and a flood of interest from noonish time.

[empirestate] 04/3/2016 16:50

that seller of 790,000 will be kicking themselves in a few months time imo

[empirestate] 04/3/2016 15:32

Picked up an additional lot earlier. looks like sellers have dried up so hopefully some meaningful progress on the share price will be achieved.

[empirestate] 04/3/2016 15:11

Looking forward to the results: This from June 15. In line with management expectations, we expect to report significant growth in terms of production and revenues, and to report our first meaningful full year profits in 2015, as we use the excellent platform we have put in place to build a leading West African focused palm oil producer."

[daithedeath] 29/2/2016 18:54

This is very much below the radar at the moment ,imvho

[mach100] 29/2/2016 17:09

I would hope so. No doubt profit will grow quickly now but it is the debt that is weighing on it. They are currently seeking to tackle this and we see already they were forgiven debt this year in return for a stake in PKO facility. Hopefully news on this is imminent as they have been working in it for quite some time! It will have to be sorted before any divi. I know the board are keen on divis as they have a large shareholding and would like some tangible return.

[empirestate] 29/2/2016 00:06

Cheers for your msg Mach100, they should have made a pretty decent y/e 15 profit imo.
A divi introduction could do wonders to encourage more institutional/fund share holders.

[mach100] 27/2/2016 10:26

Hi empire. The finals are four months away around the end of June. The next production update is at the beginning of April, possibly the first of April as DKL have a penchant for Fridays when they release an RNS. However they may also want to get the full 3 month production figures so the update could be Monday the 4th through to the 11th of April. The board are aware of the need for timeliness on the matter.
We are range bound currently. There doesn't seem enough buying yet to warrant 1.2p and not enough sellers to see this go to 1.1p. However a move in either direction would not surprise me. A dip because the MM's might want to trigger stop losses or spook holders or a rise because we are now almost in high season, CPO price is recovering and the company is moving into profit.
I think there has been a fairly persistent seller which means those buys of 1 million are quickly absorbed. In fact these are rarely the types of buys that mean a tick-up for DKL and from my experience it is a steady stream of small buys at full ask that makes the MM'S move up the bid.

I am trying to determine the AGM date but it was 16th of July last year. I see no reason unless they are working on a very important company development that we should not have the AGM at around this time. I should be attending personally so if any posters have any questions/suggestions I am happy to field them.

[empirestate] 26/2/2016 23:03

good to see another 1 million buy at 1.19p today.

it's a bloody quiet board. the company that appears to be off the radar,surprising, in particular to the potential forthcoming results outcome.

[empirestate] 18/2/2016 10:40

sellers exiting on share price strength so slight pull back to evens. certainly will be keeping my ones and will build on any share price weakness

[empirestate] 18/2/2016 08:56

no weight on the share price and looking keen at 1.20/1.25p

[empirestate] 16/2/2016 16:37

that was a good finish to the day. the stock looks well bid for and moved with ease to 1.15/1.20

[empirestate] 16/2/2016 12:20

Mach100, yes that would be helpful. I picked up a few here today and intend to build a healthy position if the share price remains here or there is any weakness over the coming few months.
The company should show a significant profit for 2015 considering the significant growth in sales and the attributable profit margin thereof, coupled with the decreased debt level cost.

[mach100] 15/2/2016 16:00

I can find out for you empire. I suspect they will also be in June this year. There are a few milestones which I think will be hit before then.