Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[mach100] 24/2/2014 15:03

Thanks the accountant. I think crude Palm oil futures for March are 830 dollars but your numbers are good and interesting in terms of locating a possible price. i think today's news is good as the placing is at midprice and will obviously help working capital. I think that fund has made a shrewd investment and the company has got access to short-term funding while drawing in institutional investors.I am looking forward to more good news in March and note buyers are back in today. Still stick with my 2p bid price by end of March.

[the accountant] 23/2/2014 19:40

Mach100 re post 495 I have put together a few figures. These are all from the DKL website - in particular the PDF of the DKL presentation dated Oct 2013 and the Optiva coverage dated May 2013. I think they have done a later cover note but I haven't seen that.

DKL expect to produce at least 35,000 tonnes in 2014 and I expect it to be more like 40,000 which is what I have based my 2014 figures on. At a price of $900 per tonne Optiva suggest an EBITDA of £6.7m. DKL's share is 51% i.e.£3.4m On a PE of 8 this would give a market cap of £27.2m or 2.1p per share. On a PE of 10 the market cap would be £34m or 2.6p per share.

The forecast for 2015 is approx 60,000 tons and at a price of $900 per tonne Optiva suggest an EBITDA of £11.3. DKL's share would be £5.75m. On a PE of 8 the market cap is £46m or 3.5p per share. On a PE of 10 the maket cap is £57.5m or 4.4p per share.

The current price is $932 per tonne.

Hope that helps but as always DYOR.

[s_e] 22/2/2014 10:46

I am in ... been holding, waiting and watching things develop here, all looking very good indeed ...

[mach100] 21/2/2014 21:57

Yes ace, any lull is only a pause for breath. The harvest season is next month and I have a feeling the company has a lot up its sleeve. A textbook company that I wish others on AIM would follow.I could have sold yesterday for a 60% profit but I am expecting at least a double bagger. Not worth trading because of the spread and it moves in big jumps. Very impressive company that has been public for only a year.

[aceofspades1] 21/2/2014 21:18

I brought quite a few shares. This company doesn't wait around, took them 6 months to build a fully operational mill and now look to provide cashflow forecasts. This going to shoot up soon. GET IN EARLY.

[frogboy11] 20/2/2014 06:47

The Times Deal Of The Day Dekeloil hxxp://goo.gl/J1HoI7

[mach100] 19/2/2014 16:27

Well I got quoted 1.61p for a dummy sell so I expect the mid price to move up to 1.75p or 1.8p in short order. Can you crunch the numbers The Accountant to see what revenue would justify a 3p share price. I think the m cap would be £34 million then. Crude Palm oil is 820 dollars a ton now, up from $720 maybe 9 months ago. Hopefully 2p will be breached by March and its production figures. Great to see it producing ahead of schedule.

[the accountant] 19/2/2014 14:10

Mach100 I bought the day before the RNS @ 1.37 though most were bought on the flotation. Not normally that lucky with my timing!!
Still sticking with my prediction per post 424 of between 2p and 3p by April.Fingers crossed !

[mach100] 19/2/2014 12:44

Quite useful buying today which means they have some traction. Might even be a sell at 1.75p as I see some have paid 1.88p and 1.9. Was that yours yesterday at 1.48p The Accountant? If so, you did really well especially given the RNS which has underpinned and then some the share price 1.6P is on offer for sellers now and I think this can go over 2p once more news feeds through. Exciting times between now and the end of March!

[the accountant] 18/2/2014 23:05

Mach100 never been too far away ! Bought when they floated and - amazingly for me - got my timing right when buying 250,000 yesterday !
Optiva very positive when I spoke to them last week.
Positive news flow to come over the next month or two I would think.

[eggtastico] 18/2/2014 19:46

look like buys to me.
There is a 20% spread

[mach100] 18/2/2014 18:37

Thanks, the Accountant. Nice to see you here again. Some chunky late trades 700k today which could be disguised buys. Even if sells then the mms are paying 1.5p. Looks ready to consolidate before the next leg up. Would love to see some press coverage and follow through buying but I guess this one is still mostly off the radar.

[the accountant] 18/2/2014 17:36

Flotation was at 1p.

[mach100] 18/2/2014 13:07

Filipe, I think it was floated at 1.10p or 1.20p a year ago and there was a large dump at .88p 6 months ago. I am in from .95p so about 40% in profit but I sure ain't selling. But I understand to a point why some people book profits. There is a big spread even if you can trade well within it ( though someone paid the full ask of 1.7p now for 5 shares). When it jumps it jumps quite big and has been up 20% today but the spread remains large. Profit takers and top slicing of their holding are most of the sellers. But you will see sells mainly absorbed due to the high spread and not many shares about. The RNS promised more news and you can rest assured with this company it is coming. There was a hint before about discussions with other Palm Oil users taking supply so when that and the harvest come to fruition this will motor to 2p.

[pigeon1] 18/2/2014 12:49

I don't think there is a seller - just no real buying yet - seems people haven't noticed this slow burner yet but inevitably they will do and this could get very spikey.

Now it's in production every chance some agri funds could start buying on market too..

[fillipe] 18/2/2014 10:15

Any idea who the regular seller is here?

f

[eggtastico] 18/2/2014 08:32

totally agree.
one for the pension pot.

[pigeon1] 18/2/2014 08:26

This is very very cheap and fantastic achievement

Buy

[mach100] 18/2/2014 08:18

Another milestone reached and a major de-risking. At last a company that delivers and not just promises. Looking forward to this one moving up now as the harvest season approaches. The buyers have been in for a few days but this has more to go.

[mach100] 28/1/2014 13:54

Think the balance is tipping back as buyers start to move in. Hopefully we will have an update by Mid Feb at the latest after a full month of production in January. Anyone seen the Optiva revised note? There is still about 25% upside from here I reckon.

[mach100] 18/1/2014 14:40

Well they called 1.68p right at least on the offer. I think 2p is easily achievable on more derisking. There were some chunky sells Friday but I think you can buy well within the spread at 1.5p I suspect there are more contracts being negotiated now and news of these should propel us to 2p to 2.2p in quick order.

[eggtastico] 18/1/2014 08:02

Yep Jasp, they have moved their target to just over 2p - got that from a broker at optivia.

[jasp2] 17/1/2014 19:40

Received this from Lincoln regarding Optiva's updated price target: "Something went out to their internal clients but I expect we will do something public shortly."

[eggtastico] 14/1/2014 22:50

I have not read post 28.
My workings was just from research reading the info available.
I am assuming the company owes the debt & the company is 51:49 owned.

The husks can be sold or used in creating energy.
There is also a small amount of kernel oil as well. My $250 is a guessimate

[eggtastico] 14/1/2014 22:50

I have not read post 28.
My workings was just from research reading the info available.
I am assuming the company owes the debt & the company is 51:49 owned.

The husks can be sold or used in creating energy.
There is also a small amount of kernel oil as well. My $250 is a guessimate