Dci Advisors Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 02/12/2016 11:14

well, IMO market likes it so far....

[kev0856153] 02/12/2016 10:55

hxxp://www.dolphinci.com/

[qs99] 02/12/2016 09:50

Property is long haul decisions....inflation likely to make a return with such low monetary policy IMO, both should help NAV be maintained....let's just see how it unfolds....would be great to see another decent asset sale in the near term for them to prove to EGM that they can achieve the results...DYOR

[maytrees] 02/12/2016 09:40

Good morning all

Some large trades earlier now showing up.

[kev0856153] 02/12/2016 08:47

DCI mainly Greece. I think the Greek resorts will be immune to any eurozone problems. Everyone goes there on holiday. These are more likely to increase in value with Zika affecting the Caribbean.
It's a good sign dci managed to sell Playa Grande at a good price considering its affected by zika.

[spectoacc] 02/12/2016 08:34

@Gbill - is that really worst case? I'd have said worst case is the next 12 months of 13 Euro elections going very badly indeed - starting with Italy on Sunday.

And if their base case is that to realise the assets over 36 months produces an average of 75% of value, inc any capital increase over that time, what does that say about the veracity of the current NAV?

[tiltonboy] 02/12/2016 08:34

QS99,

I was being a little flippant!

They get an incentive if they sell them above half price. Hopefully they will achieve decent prices for some of the assets.

Gbill11,

The worst case scenario is they can't sell some of the assets, even at discounted levels.

I would happily take 15p.

[gbill11] 02/12/2016 08:28

The worst case estimate gives you compounded 18.5% return PER YEAR over 3 years
The best case estimate gives you compounded 42.5% return PER YEAR over 3 years


Also some proceeds are paid out when a sale is executed so expect regular payments

[qs99] 02/12/2016 08:14

tiltonboy, who cares if half price I'll still double my money! actually they are incentivised to sell them over current NAV if you read it no? DYOR

[gbill11] 02/12/2016 08:11

So now they are selling everything over the next 3 year. This part caught my eye -

"The Manager has estimated that over the Divestment Period, the Company may be capable of realizing gross cash proceeds ranging between approximately €190 million to €310 million based on asset sales prices ranging between 50 per cent. to 100 per cent. of NAV as at 30 June 2016. After deduction of estimated annual management fees (of which variable management fee ranging from €11 million to €28 million depending on sale prices), operating and financing expenses, this would equate to approximately €135 million to €235 million being available for distribution to Shareholders."


135 million euros is 12.5p per share
235 million euros is 21.5p per share

The mid point is 17p per share. That's a very good return from 7.5p on an annualised basis.

[tiltonboy] 02/12/2016 07:57

...lol...managers being incentivised to sell things at half price!

[qs99] 02/12/2016 07:08

OK, well personally this looks pretty good IMO. Reduced management fee and incentivised to get a variable fee over and above CURRENT NAV...gives examples of what would happen on range of E150-390m proceeds....and is also looking to distribute sales proceeds to shareholders....

so do you think that between now and 2019 management can get at least 50% of the NAV? if so then shares IMO look GV...

DYOR
etc!
gla

[tiltonboy] 30/11/2016 16:31

Big seller playing again at 7.5p

[tiltonboy] 30/11/2016 14:01

Picked up a few more at 7.5p in the 2pm auction!

That's me done for now.

[qs99] 30/11/2016 08:13

nice opening today....let's zoom through 8p please!

[tiltonboy] 29/11/2016 16:36

...lol... perhaps not finished...more offered in the auction!

[tiltonboy] 29/11/2016 16:32

Looks like the seller might have been cleared out at this level following that sale of 1m at 7.6p. I wonder what his next level is!

[jimcar] 29/11/2016 16:14

Interestingly you can still buy 10k for 7.5p, 100k pushes it up to 7.68

[qs99] 29/11/2016 16:04

Nice uptick again.... Roll on double figures and beyond...! Dyor etc

[tiltonboy] 29/11/2016 08:17

lyonst5,

1. I wouldn't say it was akin to buying into a Chinese company, but of course nothing will be straightforward.

2. You have every right to be cautious/sceptical, as I am, and it will be interesting to see how the valuations stack up.

3. Following the sale of Playa Grande, there is only any significant debt on one project, Amanzoe.

4. As with any company. Following the arrival of the two new NED's things appear to be moving in the right direction.

5. I'm not a chartist.

This isn't the sort of stock I buy for clients, and it would need to be compelling for me to do so. I have spoken to Panmure, who seem pretty confident in the numbers, but I remain wary.

[lyonst5] 28/11/2016 23:15

tiltonboy, just spotted your dabble here. You do seem to have a good nose for stuff. So being a bit of a NAV junkie or better word (Lobster pot company mug) I made some quick assumptions here before delving further.

My take.

1, All is non UK and south border Euro stuff and Caribbean which makes things a bit complicated on many fronts akin to buying into China company. Each DCI investments in any of these regions will have ongoing problems of some sort. The variegates of local and national bodies to put random spanners in the works will be ever present. Local politics /families with be ever a factor in licences, permissions, sale of asset, etc

2, I have seen the NAV word posted here, NAV is what is somebody will pay for an asset. For a company like DCI using NAV in the accounts must be like reading tea leafs, but they have to somehow quantify their assets. Only when an asset is sold then a true asset value can be attained. A company like this is all about its NAV and debt.
(Note) People buy business's either personally or within a company structure. So it maybe for yields, investment, lifestyle or just even ways to launder cash. Each will have their own way to value the business. And valuations are not easy to make on such one off built properties.

3, I have not delved into any report or account or RNS's here but debt is there at a guess and interest repayable and the companies ability to repay. So worth to consider that if we get into a interest rate inflation bubble with all the free cash around at the moment a company like this could end up sweating when interest rates rise and its only a case of when the rates raise.

4, The integrity and skill of the directors is major factor in the above points.

5, The chart is starting to have a certain bowl look about it, so may have a good rise still to come yet.

I will have a crack at looking at the company and the accounts and if that can shed some light on things for me.

[tiltonboy] 28/11/2016 10:57

Another 200k on the offer at 7.5p

[tiltonboy] 28/11/2016 09:49

There is a bit of stock around on the auction board. Next one is at 1100, it will be interesting to see if the seller re-loads.