Dart Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 22/4/2019 13:24

Tiger - Response on the TND thread

[shaker44] 22/4/2019 11:00

But if they use forward contracts for fuel, they are likely to be dollar denominated, so will need to hedge those

[cb7] 22/4/2019 10:13

My simple 2p worth on hedging. Fuel hedging should idealy mirror the same % of forward bookings. Only then can DTG have reasonable certainty that they will make a profit when they take those bookings, by predicting future total costs. Sizeable deviation from this method, ie a greater % of hedging, means greater speculation and uncertainty. A lower % of hedging, (in proportion to forward booking), opens the company profits to rising or falling in line with the price of oil.

[castleford tiger] 20/4/2019 13:18

hat
does my 40/50p eps agree with you?
Tiger

I know Mr Neary been at agms with him

[hatfullofsky] 20/4/2019 12:12

I'm currently checking if they are exclusive

[hatfullofsky] 20/4/2019 12:11

I'm in TND too. Neary from SCVR also a fan but highlights board remuneration policy as a negative. (They are paid more the the FY Dividend). I like the sales increases, they've ridden the Toys R Us decline and are expanding the DTC channel. Growth in own brand kids and licensed brands (Disney etc). Now if those licences are exclusive that definitely creates a moat.

[tresham] 20/4/2019 08:38

Tandem: Total Equity £12.4, intangibles-£3.4m -Pension deficit -£2.8m = £6.2m. Declining sales, redundancies, closing warehouses, Sales organisation weak. In the middle of manufacturers/licensors and final customers, squeezed from both sides. Strong competitors.
This is the sort of company highlighted by company refs. Tempting P/E a trap.
But some sales direct to consumers and if eps is 40p it could increase in value because it does have a very low P/E, (price 200p).
Compare Dart, with a dedicated owner leader.

[tongostl] 19/4/2019 19:28

The fake accountant's brother in law is trying to copy my ID. Got anything else better to do you poor sod?

[tongosti] 19/4/2019 17:55

The fake accountant's brother in law is trying to copy my ID. Got anything else better to do you poor sod?

[tongostl] 19/4/2019 14:39

Tiger, i had a look at TND, my take; there looks like a lot of promises with a lot of optimism being made by the company. However the results consistently show flat/under performance. Their products look to be easily manufactured by any old competitor (there's the moat gone) and they look like they are at the mercy of the retailers. Personally I'd say there are better places to invest you're hard earned money, ie DTG.

[castleford tiger] 19/4/2019 07:29

Yes prices are moving fast and north.

Steady at 900p which proves that dip was worth buying.

The shares are resting before normal conditions should return to the market.

I still think its only time before TCG fails as so much debt coming due and they are probably breaking even just ( before exc costs)
The planes have to go otherwise a cash flow crisis looms
Tiger

have a good Easter i am afraid its much work for me.

Tiger

can those of you with time take a look at TND for me because i can see 45/50p eps in current year and trades at 200p. Still below asset value. What am i missing?

[melody9999] 19/4/2019 00:13

Just booked Ryanair rtn to Marrakesh. £55 10 days ago, cost me just under £100, now £140. Mention here because delay to Brexit may have unlocked pent up demand and allowed price recovery.

Castleford T1ger filtered. Everyone should do same.

[sogoesit] 18/4/2019 16:53

And a good week has been had by all those long!
Good luck and Happy Easter all!

[woozle1] 18/4/2019 16:48

WL .. filter and move on .. it's wasted life that you'll never recover .. w1

[castleford tiger] 18/4/2019 16:04

TBF I had a detailed explanation from Gary at the AGM and via e mail and its still a dark area for my mind.

We are close to 900p.

Nobody taking the pxxx now with my buys

tiger

[tongosti] 18/4/2019 13:38

U still have it going these days. Name has changed to M&As though. 9 out of 10 they do not work out for shareholders. Not that the C suite + their investment bankers ever complain.

[wagnerlove] 18/4/2019 12:18

For anyone who hasn't seen, look at page 77 of last annual report for sensitivity analysis on exposure to movements in fuel/gbp. [hxxps://www.dartgroup.co.uk/uploadedFiles/Dart_Group_Plc/Content/Pages/Company_Reports_post_2009/Report_and_Accounts_2018/Dart%20Group%20AR2018%20web%20ready.pdf]

[snorkelparker] 18/4/2019 12:11

Cant help thinking the similarity of the Delta refinery situation to tcg buying or building hotels.. Why.. When it's easier just to buy capacity.. Concentrate on what your best at is a good motto.. Works for jet2

[snorkelparker] 18/4/2019 11:56

Tong, the Delta situation was not exactly a hedge if your talking about their purchase of a refinery.. A complete disaster costing 4 bill..a lot of cost coming from liabilities from the previous owners.. Any way intereresting reading

[wagnerlove] 18/4/2019 11:34

Tongo, mate you are talking gibberish. In your example, if you originally hedge by buying oil forward at $60 and it then falls to $25, the mark to market loss on the hedge is made up in the unexpected saving you make on buying the oil at $25. So you make a far higher profit margin because oil is cheaper, but this gain is cancelled out by losses on hedge. So you make the same margin you originally planned for - that is the whole point of hedging! There is no “hedging loss”. The “premium”; (I guess you mean cost?) paid for buying a forward is negligible, so that is irrelevant.

Also, your example ignores that hedges are rolled on every month far out - which largely mitigates the risk of a massive margin call. Dart, like its competitors, is rolling hedges as they expire so always has a blended forward price based on last 12-36 months of spot prices. This avoids any sudden shocks, and allows for forward planning.

You clearly don’t understand why Dart hedges - it is exactly the opposite of taking a “massive bet” on oil prices. You should ring up Meeson right away and tell him he has his hedging all wrong and is a huge muppet, because Tongo read an article about Delta on Investopedia. His number is on the RNS. Sure he will be glad to speak with you.

If you want to sound sensible you should be asking, how much can higher oil costs be passed on to passengers in future via holiday prices? Can Jet2 retain margin if oil rises a lot? That is the important question.