Dart Share Discussion Threads

[sf5] 05/4/2019 18:27

Please stop this tongo-bashing. He talks a lot of sense, even if it isn't always DTG-specific. Some years ago I had several weekly group classes/ discussions with a sharp trader (OK - too short term for many). Always we started off with the question - is this instrument trending up, down or sideways? And respect the hierarchy of Market-Sector-Stock. As tongo implies, you'll never be 100% right but you can make decent returns with a 55+% win rate and good money management. iirc, tongo correctly called the last DTG results while many didn't - kudos due.

As for balancing bear points, I heard on the wireless this morning that 1/4 of UK consumers are considering holidaying at home this year due to general uncertainty etc. I haven't yet checked it out for detail, but developments like that could knock every company in this sector.

[castleford tiger] 05/4/2019 17:00

hxxps://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/TravelersChoice-Airlines
hxxps://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/TravelersChoice-Airlines

hopefully link works
however its trip advisers travelers choice.

Top EUROPEAN company again.

This is a massive achievement for a low cost airline/travel company.

Tiger

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 16:03

I understand sg - the assigned benchmark is the main determining factor behind how one plays the game I come from a different segment of the market and my mandate is absolute returns instead so need to make money no matter what happens hence my different game plan. anyway, enough for one day - happy Friday!

[sogoesit] 05/4/2019 14:32

Like I said, I am agnostic short term.
Of course, probably with considerable effort, one can play the odds short term (windows) wise to “preserve capital”.
However, my objectives are (i) to make more money than I lose and (ii) to beat my market benchmarks while being in the market. In attempting this I am more interested in balancing risk in the portfolio (making money) than worrying about stock specificity (with their own probabilities of gains, losses and capacity for losses/gains).
I manage to beat the market consistently (9 years in current bull market) with 55-60% winning stocks and 40-45% losing stocks on an annual basis.
Could I preserve more capital (more winners less losers)?
Of course, that is the objective. We can all do better. Especially if we are humble in front of the market.
Bon weekend!

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 13:15

It has always been known incapable ppl resenting those who are different and better. Nothing new under the sun. All it takes is look back at my calls back in mid Oct to short the US markets (ppl were laughing on here then!) and DTG (only one day prior to their latest announcement mind you). Only received hostility (I wonder why as there's always two to make a market but some ppl really take the game personally) from the fools community for my calls. Not that I gave a sh1t as my job is to make money not agree with fools. Who's next now that the Woof Woof community is done?

[wagnerlove] 05/4/2019 13:03

I second that talking with Tong is a waste of time. I asked him the other day for numbers to back up his statement about Dart's business, never got a response. Guy simply isnt capable. Just meaningless chart watching nonsense = "if it rains I will bring an umbrella, but if it doesnt I wont". Bravo. Yahoo finance share chart "technical analysis" of Tongo's level is horoscope BS to make himself feel better about not being able to read/understand financial statements. Its not about being a cheerleader, or unable to tolerate different views, its just his "views" are unactionable and usless air.

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 12:51

I am grateful there are a lot of fools like you around. Otherwise market opportunities would vanish. Thank you!

[shaker44] 05/4/2019 12:29

Agree with woozle. Tongo et al aliases a waste of space

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 12:10

Real shame a few brainless individuals like this idiot think this is a fan club rather than a place where ppl exchange views (woof woof fella should replace Danny Dyer in the football factory sequel)

[woozle1] 05/4/2019 11:42

Sogoesit .. just let me spare you the wasted life that is getting involved in incoherent and circular arguments with tongo .. so many people have got bogged down with this fool .. just filter and move on .. life is good without tongo and his various aliases .. w1

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 11:06

think it goes without saying that I do not see the proverbial long term in a vacuum but rather a continual string of shorter term windows. Again, no such thing again as right or wrong, just what fits with my personal style.

There is obviously an opportunity cost always embedded to such an approach but the name of the game for me is obsession with protecting my capital (always and without fail) and hitting a few home runs here and there when they become available.

[tongosti] 05/4/2019 11:00

Thousand ways to skin a cat sg so yes, I certainly understand (I am also a big fan of EV not MV as it takes into account capital structures which makes conventional PE's redundant) where you come from.

My own way to look at it is to move in only if a) fundamentals are confirmed by market action (as I never rely on fundamentals alone without Mr Market telling me I am in a high probability move) OR b) act 100% contrary to fundamentals IF warranted by very unusual market action (on the premise that fundamentals trail especially "unexplainable" >3 sigma market events).

So, this time around I am prepared to go long above 10.5(point a. above) and definitely short below 750 (point b.). Clearly, my philosophy trades off superior location for higher probability plays and the way I look at it is kind of insurance I need to pay in order to stack odds in my favour.

[sogoesit] 05/4/2019 10:22

Sure, I take your point tongo. You are waiting for confirmation one way or another... long more sub 750 or super 1025.
Short term, I tend to be agnostic.
I based my interest in this stock on a fundamental valuation basis (Earnings power compared to Enterprise value) which indicated to me that, below 800 or so, growth is not factored in to the price.
Consequent to that the question is is there any growth and what term would it be if there was? If I think there is does the market agree or disagree and is there any perception arbitrage in my favour and over what term.
My fundamental analysis is an experiment as I haven’t used this technique before.
In addition, I am feeding into my position and 30% towards full exposure so far. To a certain extent, I look on my exposure as my “hedge” (capacity of loss vs potential for reward).

[tongosti] 04/4/2019 18:10

B:out above 10.5 meant earlier.

[tongosti] 04/4/2019 18:09

SG - this is still within range and v undetermined. What you say it's fine if you trade it but not necessarily if you're an investor. The more DTG knocks on the door south the more slippery it may become. Naturally, the reverse will be true if it blasts past £10.5. Trading off location for stacking odds in your favour of course but a breakout would be a bullish confirmation I think.

[tongosti] 04/4/2019 18:04

Yes Einstein I am shaking in my boots as have no position on DTG...Shouldn't be too harsh on ya - shoe shiners not exactly known for their market skills ain't they. Mwah.

[woozle1] 04/4/2019 16:30

Around now Tongosti and aliases must be getting margin calls from brokers. Thank goodness for same day transfers. I wish them all a sweaty weekend!

[sogoesit] 04/4/2019 15:34

Added, bounced off resistance in the channel.
Now waiting for the new ISA year next week.
Good luck chaps, and chapesses!

[tongosti] 02/4/2019 22:29

Enjoy your new role chap!

[tongostl] 02/4/2019 21:49

It's official, Jet2 are now the UKs favourite holiday maker, exciting times guys :)

[sux_2bu] 02/4/2019 19:54

I've been speaking to friends in the holiday and leisure industry. I'm informed they have been selling a lot of package holidays, sales through the roof via their multi outlets and online services.

Now the interesting part is, TUI and TCG are selling very well but a prominent drop in Jet2 Holidays, due to their price and lack lustre destinations.

[xc1] 02/4/2019 19:30

Can anyone confirm that the chart is creating a right shoulder?

If so, that's 500p confirmed.

[xc1] 02/4/2019 19:29

Aneeda, good work.

I'll buy DTG at 250p.